AI Consensus Investment Thesis
PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
STRONG BUY
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
STRONG BUY$25
+27.1%5-Year
STRONG BUY$57
+192.9%Latest flagship insight
Hidden Surgical Consumable Annuity Set to Overcome Hospital Channel Inventory Reset
There is high consensus that clinical demand remains robust beneath transient channel destocking, driven by recurring waterjet consumable utilization and gross margins reaching 66%. However, sharp divergence persists regarding the five-year cash-burn runway, debt refinancing risks, and regulatory oncology timing.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Universal Investor (Polymath), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Machiavelli (Insider), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Elon Musk (Visionary). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
Dotted terms open concise definitions. Browse technical terms
If you invested $10,000 in PROCEPT BioRobotics today: $29,290 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter / date | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q118 Dec 2026 | 19.60 | +1.57% | +1.57% | Third-quarter results confirm hospital handpiece destocking has largely concluded, with shipments tracking actual procedure volumes. Macro headwinds from elevated interest rates and ongoing securities litigation cap immediate multiple expansion, resulting in modest stabilization. |
| Q218 Mar 2027 | 20.66 | +5.38% | +7.04% | Full-year 2026 financial reporting proves underlying procedure growth exceeded 20%, while conservative 2027 guidance resets Street expectations. Clean handpiece utilization data prompts short covering and stabilizes the valuation floor above distress levels. |
| Q318 Jun 2027 | 23.21 | +12.36% | +20.27% | Presentation of primary endpoint results from the WATER IV trial at the urology congress generates clinical excitement regarding functional preservation. Expanding HYDROS console installations and high-margin consumable reorders drive solid quarterly appreciation. |
| Q418 Sept 2027 | 24.53 | +5.67% | +27.08% | Focus shifts to balance-sheet duration as the October 2027 debt amortization window approaches. Continued procedural expansion offsets refinancing friction, though higher interest rates maintain valuation multiple pressure across mid-cap medical technology. |
| Q518 Dec 2027 | 26.47 | +7.93% | +37.16% | Management successfully renegotiates or terms out credit facilities, eliminating near-term liquidity panic. Year-end surgical procedure backlogs clear, driving handpiece reorders higher and narrowing quarterly operating cash burn. |
| Q618 Mar 2028 | 28.42 | +7.38% | +47.28% | Full-year 2027 earnings demonstrate gross margins stabilizing near 66% as research spending post-WATER IV enrollment moderates. Visible progress toward adjusted EBITDA breakeven encourages fundamental institutional healthcare allocators to accumulate shares. |
| Q718 Jun 2028 | 30.41 | +7.00% | +57.59% | Supplemental regulatory filings for oncology label expansion advance, while international placements in Western Europe and Japan accelerate. Expanding procedural volume cushions against seasonal surgical moderation and capital procurement scrutiny. |
| Q818 Sept 2028 | 31.78 | +4.49% | +64.67% | A modeled capital raise or convertible note offering dilutes per-share recovery economics slightly, causing transient price consolidation. However, recurring consumable revenue approaching 65% of sales mix provides downside support. |
| Q918 Dec 2028 | 34.47 | +8.45% | +78.59% | Post-financing overhang clears as third-quarter results approach operating cash-flow neutrality. Resolution or preliminary settlement of legacy securities litigation removes the primary governance discount, sparking sustained multiple expansion. |
| Q1018 Mar 2029 | 36.78 | +6.70% | +90.56% | Full-year 2028 financial disclosures deliver the company's first cash-flow neutral operating print. Slower salesforce overhead growth relative to high-margin disposable handpiece revenue validates structural razor-and-blade operating leverage. |
| Q1118 Jun 2029 | 39.13 | +6.39% | +102.73% | Oncology regulatory milestones and commercial pilots in ambulatory surgical centers expand procedural addressability. Commercial execution steadily dislodges legacy resections, broadening recurring revenue across high-volume regional hospital networks. |
| Q1218 Sept 2029 | 40.30 | +2.99% | +108.80% | Routine summer surgical seasonality and modest multiple digestion produce mild quarterly consolidation. Underlying handpiece utilization remains resilient, preserving solid gross margin performance despite hospital procurement budgeting scrutiny. |
| Q1318 Dec 2029 | 42.95 | +6.57% | +122.52% | Fourth-quarter procedural acceleration delivers sustained GAAP operating profitability. Fixed manufacturing cost absorption expands gross margins toward 68%, confirming self-funded corporate sustainability to the broader market. |
| Q1418 Mar 2030 | 44.57 | +3.78% | +130.93% | Full-year 2029 earnings substantiate durable double-digit revenue expansion and positive free cash flow. Healthcare index inclusions and fundamental mutual fund buying support orderly equity multiple re-rating. |
| Q1518 Jun 2030 | 46.94 | +5.31% | +143.20% | International commercial distribution expands procedural penetration across Asia-Pacific markets. High surgeon retention and AI-driven FirstAssist planning workflows entrench high switching costs across the mature installed base. |
| Q1618 Sept 2030 | 47.87 | +1.99% | +148.04% | Growth moderates into a mature mid-teens expansion phase as domestic market penetration deepens. Mild valuation multiple compression reflects sector rotation, but strong cash conversion prevents material price degradation. |
| Q1718 Dec 2030 | 50.42 | +5.32% | +161.25% | Consecutive quarters of positive free cash generation prompt management to explore balanced capital allocation, including anti-dilutive share repurchases. Year-end elective surgery volumes drive record quarterly handpiece shipments. |
| Q1818 Mar 2031 | 52.56 | +4.25% | +172.35% | Fiscal 2030 results demonstrate robust return on invested capital and operating margins topping 14%. The company completes its transition from speculative turnaround to established medical technology cash compounder. |
| Q1918 Jun 2031 | 54.67 | +4.01% | +183.27% | Next-generation platform software upgrades sustain console replacement cycles across pioneer hospital accounts. High-margin consumable revenue commands an enduring quality premium, insulating earnings from broader macroeconomic volatility. |
| Q2018 Sept 2031 | 56.53 | +3.40% | +192.90% | Five-year forecast horizon concludes with Aquablation firmly institutionalized as standard of care. Sustainable organic free cash flow, pristine balance sheet health, and recurring razor-and-blade economics anchor long-term terminal value. |
The base-case investment thesis identifies an asymmetric valuation dislocation where forensic channel inventory digestion masked durable clinical adoption. While reported revenue growth decelerated from historical hypergrowth due to the cessation of aggressive distributor bulk discounting, underlying U.S. procedure volumes expanded 21% year-over-year in mid-2026, with handpiece shipments re-anchoring to procedure volume at 98% parity. As the global installed baseinstalled baseThe active set of deployed products or users already in operation with existing customers.View full glossary entry of over 1,036 robotic systems matures, high-margin single-use handpieces generate an expanding recurring revenuerecurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage.View full glossary entry annuity at 66% gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry. Operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry will systematically absorb fixed commercial overhead as WATER IV trial enrollment costs roll off, driving the business toward adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry breakeven by late 2027 and free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry self-sufficiency by 2029. Valuation sensitivity centers on the bridge between cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry and refinancing timing: trailing twelve-month free cash outflows of $85 million to $126 million against approximately $228 million in liquid reserves leave roughly five quarters of standalone runway. The primary counterargument warns that hospital capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry rationing under restrictive monetary policy, paired with pending securities class-action liabilities, could force a dilutive equity raisedilutive equity raiseAn equity financing that increases shares outstanding and reduces existing owners' percentage ownership.View full glossary entry before operational self-sufficiency is achieved.
Key insights
- Consumable handpiece sales expanding to over 65% of total revenue structurally decouples financial growth from lumpy hospital capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry cycles.
- Restructured executive incentives under Larry Wood eliminate volatile end-quarter discounting, establishing transparent revenue quality that commands institutional multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry.
- Oncology label expansion via WATER IV represents an unpriced call option; the base case remains fully supported by core benign urology.
This company makes advanced robotic systems that use high-speed waterjets to treat enlarged prostates without heat, protecting patients from surgical complications. The stock plunged because the former management team used aggressive discounts to push excess parts into hospital storage closets, making sales look artificially high. Now that hospitals have used up that extra inventory, real surgical demand is shining through, with actual surgeries growing over 20%. Because every surgery requires a new, high-profit disposable handpiece, each robot placed in a hospital acts like a recurring cash tollway. As surgery volumes grow and research spending winds down, the company is on track to stop losing money and become self-funding.
Key insights
- Surgeries are growing steadily, proving doctors prefer this waterjet technology over older, riskier heating techniques.
- Recurring sales of single-use surgical parts make up the majority of revenue, creating reliable ongoing cash.
- Ample cash in the bank provides enough breathing room to reach profitability without needing emergency loans.
Deep Dive
Prevailing market sentiment treats the business as a permanently impaired growth story crippled by executive channel stuffingchannel stuffingInflating reported sales by sending distributors more inventory than underlying demand supports.View full glossary entry, an 80% market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry collapse, and pending class-action lawsuits. Sell-side analysts anchor on top-line deceleration from 65% to 20% and trailing nine-figure cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, assuming elevated borrowing costs will permanently freeze hospital robotic purchases and force a distressed, highly dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry recapitalization before the company achieves operational self-sufficiency.
Paywalled preview begins: Deep Dive: detailed analysis
From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.
Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market sentiment treats the business as a permanently impaired growth story crippled by executive channel stuffingchannel stuffingInflating reported sales by sending distributors more inventory than underlying demand supports.View full glossary entry, an 80% market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry collapse, and pending class-action lawsuits. Sell-side analysts anchor on top-line deceleration from 65% to 20% and trailing nine-figure cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry, assuming elevated borrowing costs will permanently freeze hospital robotic purchases and force a distressed, highly dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry recapitalization before the company achieves operational self-sufficiency.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates value due to an acute underpricing dislocation. The market misdiagnoses a transient field-inventory correction as structural procedural stagnation. While reported shipments paused as hospitals absorbed 10,000 discounted units, genuine procedure volume grew 21% year-over-year, and handpiece reorders have recovered to 98% of procedure volume. Selling at roughly 2.3 times forward sales, the market prices an existential insolvency crisis just as high-margin consumable recurring revenuerecurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage.View full glossary entry and operating expense discipline bridge the gap to positive cash flow.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Consecutive reporting periods through early 2027 demonstrating handpiece shipments strictly matching 100% of procedure volume will definitively eliminate channel-stuffing fears. This operational confirmation, followed by the presentation of primary WATER IV clinical data at the spring 2027 urology conference showing superior functional preservation, will force sell-side analysts to dismantle the governance discountgovernance discountValuation gap caused by complex corporate structures and perceived poor shareholder alignment.View full glossary entry and re-rate the multiple toward commercial-stage medical technology peers.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Fear
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Stabilization
Sentiment exhibits broad agreement on deep positioning skepticism following the inventory collapse. Disagreement centers on whether current valuations represent terminal capitulation or orderly post-crisis stabilization, dictating whether multiple re-expansion occurs rapidly in 2027 or requires a multi-year grinding recovery.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop of restrictive monetary policy, with policy rates near 4.00% and sovereign yields near 5%, represents a clear headwind for hospital capital budgets and loss-making valuations. Higher capital costs prolong six-figure console sales cycles. However, non-discretionary urological surgical demand insulates recurring procedure volumes, allowing high-margin disposable handpiece sales to compound through macroeconomic cycles.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary analytical disagreement across reports concerns the velocity of operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry and the severity of financing dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry. One group argues that customer inventory destocking is already complete, with 66% gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry and 21% procedure growth providing a clear, self-funded path to positive cash flow by 2028 without secondary . Conversely, the more skeptical group demonstrates that trailing cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry of $85 million to $126 million leaves barely five quarters of liquidity before 2027 debt obligations, making a dilutive financing round highly probable. This debate will be resolved by observed fourth-quarter 2026 cash conversion and the trajectory excluding one-off tariff refunds.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreHigh70/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Razor-and-blade procedural utilization annuity | Competitive Positioning | +45% | +75% | With an active global installed baseinstalled baseThe active set of deployed products or users already in operation with existing customers.View full glossary entry surpassing 1,036 robotic systems, recurring single-use handpiece consumption increasingly dominates total revenue. Each procedure generates approximately $3,550 at 66% gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry. As hospital field inventory destocking completes and annual procedures compound above 20%, high-margin consumable pull-through systematically absorbs fixed corporate overhead, driving structural operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry. |
| HYDROS AI robotic upgrade cycle | Innovation And Product | +35% | +45% | Commercial rollout of the next-generation HYDROS platform, featuring FirstAssist AI planning and integrated imaging, commands premium $485,000 to $495,000 capital realizations. Faster surgical planning boosts account throughput by over 20%, driving replacement demand across legacy AquaBeam accounts and locking hospital urology departments into proprietary consumable workflows across North America and Europe. |
| Clinical guideline standard-of-care institutionalization | Regulatory | +30% | +38% | Upgraded clinical recommendations from American and European urological associations validate Aquablation's superior preservation of sexual function and continence over traditional transurethral electrocautery and laser resection. Universal 50-state Medicare coverage and permanent Category I CPT coding ensure hospital facility payments exceeding $9,000 per procedure, accelerating institutional adoption across ambulatory surgical centers. |
| Executive commercial discipline and cost containment | Management And Governance | +25% | +35% | Under CEO Larry Wood, former head of Edwards Lifesciences' transcatheter valve franchise, management eliminated unvetted bulk discounting and aligned field compensation directly with procedural pull-through. This operational reset restores institutional credibility, stabilizes handpiece average selling prices, and restrains general commercial expansion, directly accelerating the path toward operational cash-flow breakeven. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities class action litigation overhang | Regulatory | -20% | -15% | Consolidated class-action lawsuits alleging misleading disclosures regarding historical handpiece discounting and channel inventory create persistent governance discounts. Legal defense costs and prospective settlement obligations consume balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry capital and executive focus, depressing equity valuation multiples until formal judicial settlements or dismissals quantify the enterprise's ultimate cash exposure. |
| Trailing cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry and refinancing timing | Capital Allocation | -18% | -22% | Trailing twelve-month free cash outflows of $85 million to $126 million rapidly consume liquid reserves, leaving roughly five quarters of runway before the amended $52 million term loan maturity in late 2027. Under high benchmark borrowing rates, securing non-dilutive credit refinancing carries onerous coupons, sustaining market fears of a dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry offering. |
| Hospital capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry procurement constraints | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -16% | -18% | Elevated interest rates and compressed healthcare operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry force hospital procurement committees to scrutinize half-million-dollar robotic acquisitions. Extended approval cycles and capital rationing slow net-new console placement velocity, compelling the company to rely more heavily on rental and operating lease structures that defer upfront hardware cash realization. |
| Alternative minimally invasive procedural competition | Competitive Positioning | -12% | -15% | Entrenched legacy procedures like laser enucleation alongside office-based outpatient modalities such as water vapor therapy and prostatic urethral lift actively contest patient volume. Because office procedures avoid general anesthesia and facility fees, community urologists have financial incentives to retain mild-to-moderate cases, capping Aquablation's addressable penetration in low-acuity settings. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Exposure category | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency discounted secondary equity offering | 30% | -42% | Capital Allocation | If procedural growth falters below 10% while trailing operational cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry persists above $30 million quarterly into late 2027, available cash reserves will drop below prudent thresholds. Management would be forced to execute a deeply discounted equity secondary offering into a depressed tape, heavily diluting existing common equity holders by more than 25%. |
| WATER IV trial oncologic efficacy failure | 28% | -40% | Innovation And Product | Intermediate clinical data from the WATER IV trial in 2027 reveals unacceptable positive surgical margins or elevated cancer recurrence compared to radical prostatectomy. Clinical failure irrevocably bars Aquablation from the multi-billion-dollar localized prostate cancer market, triggering severe sell-side target reductions and permanently confining the platform to benign prostatic hyperplasia. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Exposure category | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATER IV pivotal oncology trial breakthrough | 34% | +75% | Innovation And Product | Primary readouts from the randomized WATER IV trial in spring 2027 demonstrate Aquablation's non-inferior oncologic resection and dramatically superior continence and sexual preservation compared to radical prostatectomy. Expedited FDA oncology clearance by late 2028 would double the addressable surgical market, driving aggressive robot placements and high-margin consumable pull-through across comprehensive cancer centers. |
| Strategic takeover by diversified medtech conglomerate | 24% | +60% | Competitive Positioning | A major surgical device conglomerate such as Boston Scientific, Stryker, or Johnson & Johnson launches an outright takeover offer between 2027 and 2028. An acquirer could immediately eliminate redundant commercial selling infrastructure, resolve litigation liabilities, and cross-sell the 1,000-unit installed robotic base globally, paying an immediate transaction premium over depressed public valuations. |
Company Financial Analysis
PROCEPT BioRobotics Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
The financial results show a growing medical technology business emerging from a painful inventory correction. Revenue expanded to $308 million in fiscal 2025 and reached $94.5 million in the second quarter of 2026, though annual growth slowed from prior hypergrowth levels. This slowdown happened because hospitals stopped buying excess supplies in bulk and began using up their existing closet inventories. Beneath the messy headline numbers, actual surgical procedures grew 21% in mid-2026. Handpiece sales have fully realigned with real surgeries. While trailing net losses remain significant at $110 million due to clinical trial and sales costs, closing the gap between shipments and surgeries provides a clear path toward financial breakeven.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 308.1M | USD -95.6M | USD -58.3M |
| 2024 | USD 224.5M | USD -91.4M | USD -103.6M |
| 2023 | USD 136.2M | USD -105.9M | USD -133.2M |
| 2022 | USD 75M | USD -87.2M | USD -83M |
| 2021 | USD 34.5M | USD -59.9M | USD -57.9M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Gross profit margins tell a positive operational story, climbing from 52.2% in 2023 to 63.7% in 2025 and reaching 66% in mid-2026. This steady expansion reflects strong pricing for single-use surgical handpieces at $3,550 and higher selling prices for next-generation robotic consoles, although a $2.9 million tariff refund provided temporary support. In contrast, operating profit margins remain deeply negative at roughly minus 29% due to extensive sales teams and clinical trial spending. As recurring, high-margin handpiece sales become a larger share of total revenue, fixed corporate overhead will be spread over more cases, paving the way for operating profits as annual surgeries continue to scale.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -103.9M | -33.7% | -31.0% |
| 2024 | USD -96.6M | -43.0% | -40.7% |
| 2023 | USD -109.2M | -80.2% | -77.8% |
| 2022 | USD -80.7M | -107.6% | -116.2% |
| 2021 | USD -54.2M | -157.1% | -173.6% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The balance sheet offers meaningful short-term liquidity, holding approximately $228 million in cash against $52 million in long-term debt as of mid-2026. Management prudently amended its borrowing agreements to push principal repayments back to late 2027, maintaining a healthy current ratio of 6.85. However, this cash cushion is being drained by trailing annual free cash burn of approximately $85 million to $126 million. Current liquid reserves provide roughly five to six quarters of standalone breathing room. Management must narrow quarterly operating losses before debt maturities arrive to avoid seeking dilutive emergency financing in an expensive interest rate environment.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 78.5M | USD 286.5M | USD 208M net cash | 6.85x |
| 2024 | USD 80.3M | USD 333.7M | USD 253.5M net cash | 9.07x |
| 2023 | USD 79.2M | USD 257.2M | USD 178M net cash | 7.63x |
| 2022 | USD 77.3M | USD 222.6M | USD 145.3M net cash | 7.73x |
| 2021 | USD 54.1M | USD 304.3M | USD 250.2M net cash | 20.08x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
The company operates an asset-light manufacturing model, keeping physical capital expenditures exceptionally low at approximately 3% of revenue in fiscal 2025. Instead of building expensive factories, management outsources hardware fabrication and directs capital into research, software algorithms, and rigorous clinical trials. Research and development spending reached $71.3 million in 2025, primarily funding the pivotal WATER IV prostate cancer clinical trials and artificial intelligence surgical planning. This deliberate choice keeps factory overhead low while building strong patents and clinical evidence. The investment payoff depends on driving higher surgical procedure volume across already installed robotic consoles.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 9.4M | USD 71.3M |
| 2024 | USD 4.4M | USD 62.3M |
| 2023 | USD 25.2M | USD 48.4M |
| 2022 | USD 2.7M | USD 29M |
| 2021 | USD 592K | USD 19M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
PROCEPT BioRobotics Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
Scroll to view all columns
| Timeline | Bear Case Stock Price (USD) | Base Case Stock Price (USD) | Bull Case Stock Price (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.76 | $20.00 | $22.00 | $750.26 | |
| $16.87 | $21.34 | $24.20 | $736.44 | |
| $19.23 | $24.11 | $30.98 | $743.40 | |
| $19.69 | $25.84 | $35.63 | $755.15 | |
| $21.40 | $27.92 | $38.83 | $776.22 | |
| $22.26 | $30.15 | $43.49 | $787.13 | |
| $22.22 | $32.81 | $46.97 | $802.83 | |
| $22.44 | $34.65 | $49.79 | $812.05 | |
| $24.01 | $37.68 | $57.76 | $839.18 | |
| $25.21 | $40.30 | $63.53 | $850.50 | |
| $26.22 | $43.09 | $68.61 | $872.39 | |
| $27.26 | $44.85 | $72.73 | $885.51 | |
| $28.63 | $47.73 | $76.37 | $909.56 | |
| $29.49 | $50.00 | $80.19 | $916.13 | |
| $30.67 | $52.78 | $83.39 | $936.51 | |
| $29.75 | $54.25 | $87.56 | $947.34 | |
| $31.53 | $56.96 | $91.07 | $969.59 | |
| $32.79 | $59.34 | $93.80 | $979.99 | |
| $33.78 | $61.82 | $97.55 | $999.60 | |
| $35.13 | $63.88 | $100.48 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The independently supported consensus reveals an intact clinical adoption engine masked by a severe distributor destocking cycle. Across all reports, evidence confirms that underlying surgical procedures grew 19% to 21% in mid-2026, while handpiece shipments cleanly reconnected with procedure volumes at approximately 98% parity. However, reports diverge sharply regarding post-destocking operating leverage and liquidity duration. The most credible analyses audit historical cash-flow filings, uncovering that trailing free cash burn of $85 million to $126 million leaves roughly five to six quarters of standalone runway before debt maturity in late 2027. Consequently, reports that project explosive multiple expansion and immediate breakeven without acknowledging equity dilution or hospital capital rationing are downweighted. Higher weights are assigned to rigorous frameworks that normalize gross margins for nonrecurring tariff refunds, model realistic mid-teens compounding, and treat prostate cancer pipeline optionality as conditional rather than guaranteed.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Delivers the most empirically grounded analysis, anchoring projections to reported filing disclosures, realistic H2 2026 ramp requirements, and disciplined multiple expansion. Properly accounts for dilution mechanics and debt amortization constraints.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraDemonstrates exceptional evidentiary rigor by auditing cash flows, adjusting gross margins for nonrecurring tariff refunds, and tracking true share count dilution. Excludes unearned pipeline optionality from the base valuation.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides disciplined forensic analysis of customer handpiece destocking and gross margin evolution toward 68%. However, assumes an aggressive re-rating to 4.5 times forward sales without fully penalizing near-term liquidity duration before operational breakeven.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashAccurately highlights the technological superiority of non-thermal waterjet ablation while appropriately stressing the burn rate and dilution hazards. The path balances realistic multiple progression with operational scaling hurdles through 2029.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashConducts rigorous forensic inspection of the 10,000-unit channel overhang and correctly identifies underlying 20% clinical procedure expansion. Cautiously addresses class action litigation liabilities and downside risks to cash duration.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashArticulates the classic transition from lumpy capital equipment placement to high-margin recurring procedural annuity. Appropriately models intermediate multiple compression before operating leverage takes hold as installed console utilization matures.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashStrong emphasis on commercial salesforce operating leverage and the razor-and-blade procedural inflection. Models measured valuation recovery while maintaining appropriate scrutiny over high-for-longer financing costs and hospital capital rationing.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers a rigorous economic moat assessment centered on high switching costs and procedural standard-of-care guidelines. Accurately identifies capital-light manufacturing advantages, though slightly underestimates ongoing selling expense friction.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashCaptures the operational transition under Larry Wood and universal Medicare reimbursement rails effectively. However, the modeled path assigns aggressive upside to the five-year trajectory, assuming near-frictionless expansion and premium multiples under a restrictive interest rate regime.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides granular procedural data points and tracks handpiece-to-procedure parity. However, the timeseries models an overly optimistic trajectory exceeding 400% compounded returns, which understates secondary dilution risk and hospital capital budgeting friction.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents sound analysis of procedural unit economics and the 98% handpiece-to-procedure reorder parity. However, the modeled path assumes early operating cash flow inflections that discount working capital absorption and refinancing hurdles.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashIdentifies decisive clinical guideline upgrades and ambulatory surgery center tailwinds, but projects extreme multiple expansion and return targets that minimize ongoing litigation risks and balance sheet drag before cash breakeven.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashAstutely evaluates reimbursement moats and leadership restructuring under Larry Wood, but models an aggressive valuation path that assumes complete insulation from high interest rates and litigation headwinds.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashHighlights secular demographic drivers and installed base monetization, but relies on question-led narrative framing and projects rapid multiple expansion that exceeds the realistic constraints of the company's five-quarter liquidity runway.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This PROCEPT BioRobotics consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 101 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01WATER IV PCa (AS Sub-study)clinicaltrials.gov
- 02WATER III: A Prospective, Partially Randomized Trial of Aquablation Therapy Versus Transurethral Laser Enucleation of the Prostate for Treatment of Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms - PubMedpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- 03prct-20251231sec.gov
- 04prct-20260630sec.gov
- 05prct-20260630sec.gov
- 06PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026sec.gov
- 07Aquablation Reimbursement for Providers | PROCEPTprocept-biorobotics.com
- 08PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
- 09PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp (NASDAQ:PRCT) Plummets 27% After Q4 Earnings Miss and Slashed 2026 Guidance | ChartMill.comchartmill.com
- 10PRCT Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNNcnn.com
- 11PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp (PRCT) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Equiblesequibles.com
- 12PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (PRCT) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
- 13PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
- 14PROCEPT BioRobotics® Advances Prostate Cancer Program with WATER IV Study Enrollment Completion and Expanded IDE Approvalfinance.yahoo.com
- 15Procept BioRobotics - PRCT - Stock Price & News | The Motley Foolfool.com
And 86 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
11 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +7 more fields
Cash flow
4 fieldscapitalExpenditures · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · totalCashFromOperatingActivities
annual: 2019-12-31–2025-12-31, 7 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
End of the paywalled preview
The excerpt from Deep Dive: detailed analysis to this notice is the simplified paywalled content included on this page. A signed-in, verified account with the required subscription provides the full interactive interface and the additional research, datasets and tools listed below.
Those additional materials are not included in this preview and cannot be revealed by removing its visual restrictions.
Additional with full access
Individual AI Advisor reports
- Investment theses
- Bull and bear scenarios and alpha signals
- Drivers, headwinds, risks and opportunities
- Quarterly forecast rationale
- Advisor research references and configuration
Additional datasets and interactive tools
- Interactive forecast comparisons
- Available detailed financial statements
- Market history and corporate-action adjustments
- Eligible historical publication workspaces
Explore complete public research examples
These public assets show the complete AI Consensus research. Their findings concern those assets, not this report.