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INTU.NASDAQ
Intuit
Information Technology · Application Software

Financial software company behind TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp for consumers and small businesses.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Intuit.

Intuit Inc (INTU.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is whether fiscal 2026 was a pricing mistake or the first crack in a moat. The evidence favours the former: management attributed lost DIY share to being mispriced for sub-$50,000 filers while assisted revenue grew 36%. Base case, growth settles at 8-10%, margins widen on the permanent headcount reduction, and roughly 6% annual share retirement does the per-share work. The multiple stabilizes near 15-17x rather than reclaiming thirty. Investors collect earnings growth plus a partial re-rate — a good return, not a moonshot.

  • FY27 guidance of $20.12-$20.36 GAAP on ~$23.4B revenue prices the anchor near 15x.
  • TTM of $8.62B funds $5.5B repurchases and rising dividends without adding leverage.
  • Sixteen times roughly $29 FY31 on ~230M shares implies about $107B equity value.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.203.24366.83530.42694857.59Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
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Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when the 2028 filing season proves the price cut bought units rather than merely surrendering revenue. Recaptured DIY volume refills the free funnel, Credit Karma monetization improves, and GBS holds 14% on payments attach rather than seat growth. Earnings then compound in the mid-teens while the multiple normalizes toward twenty times as the AI-substitution narrative loses its evidentiary base. Buybacks executed at depressed prices magnify the per-share outcome considerably.

Bear case

The bear case activates if agentic bookkeeping substitutes for the ledger itself, not just for tax guidance. Online paying customer growth slides from 3% to negative, payments volume growth follows the departing subscriptions, and pricing concessions spread from the DIY low end into QuickBooks. reverses, buyback capacity shrinks with , and the multiple compresses below twelve times declining earnings. Litigation over pricing disclosures would amplify the de-rating rather than cause it.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus trade treats Intuit as the first white-collar franchise AI dissolves. A 49% decline in 2026, a 20% single-session gap in May and Goldman's target cut to $276 hardened that belief [2][18]. Sell-side targets now span $250 to $921 — dispersion that confesses nobody has a . The anchoring bias is simple: last year's 48.5x is read as proof the story is over.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates these shares. Follow the evidence: units fell 2% to 39.0 million while management attributed the loss to pricing for sub-$50,000 filers, explicitly not AI [6][8], and TurboTax Live simultaneously grew 36% to nearly $2.8 billion [7]. That is mix reallocation, not substitution. Yet the price embeds terminal decay at roughly 15x guided FY27 GAAP of $20.12-$20.36 [12] with a 10.4% trailing , while 6-7% of the is retired annually.

Convergence catalyst

The May 2027 third-quarter report is the trial: it delivers the first full filing season after the deliberate low-end price reset. Positive TurboTax federal unit growth alongside GBS inside 13-14% would refute the decay thesis. First sign of repricing: on in-line revenue.

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