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CPG.LSE
Compass Group
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants

Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally.

HQ: United KingdomListed: United Kingdom

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Compass Group.

Compass Group PLC (CPG.LSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that an excellent business is priced as one. Compass converts a fragmented $360bn outsourcing market into contracted, inflation-indexed revenue with 96% retention, and that engine should deliver mid-to-high single-digit with continued margin progression through the decade. Against that, a roughly 20x was set in a cheaper-money era; with the Fed at 3.75%-4.00% and the ten-year near 5%, valuation absorbs part of the earnings compounding. The base case is therefore earnings-led appreciation with a slow multiple leak, producing solid but unspectacular total returns rather than a re-rating windfall.

  • Underlying operating profit growth above 11% in FY2026, converting toward roughly 9% annual thereafter.
  • drifts from about 20x toward 18x, so price lags earnings by roughly two points annually.
  • At $45 by 2031 the implied equity value stays near 1.0x sales, consistent with peer scale economics.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.16.4824.131.7239.3546.97Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1619.63
Observed price2021-09-2419.56
Observed price2021-10-0220.0
Observed price2021-10-2219.02
Observed price2021-10-3020.5
Observed price2021-11-0721.0
Observed price2021-11-1919.51
Observed price2021-12-0119.77
Observed price2021-12-1720.5
Observed price2021-12-2120.9
Observed price2022-01-1022.5
Observed price2022-01-1822.7
Observed price2022-01-2621.7
Observed price2022-02-1123.9
Observed price2022-02-2722.1
Observed price2022-03-0720.5
Observed price2022-03-1922.5
Observed price2022-03-2721.8
Observed price2022-04-0421.5
Observed price2022-04-2422.6
Observed price2022-05-1020.8
Observed price2022-05-2222.7
Observed price2022-05-3023.7
Observed price2022-06-0723.7
Observed price2022-06-2321.6
Observed price2022-07-0522.3
Observed price2022-07-1724.4
Observed price2022-07-2524.3
Observed price2022-08-1425.7
Observed price2022-08-1826.0
Observed price2022-09-0324.3
Observed price2022-09-1125.3
Observed price2022-10-0123.7
Observed price2022-10-0524.2
Observed price2022-10-1323.7
Observed price2022-11-1024.8
Observed price2022-11-1424.0
Observed price2022-11-2223.9
Observed price2022-12-1225.1
Observed price2022-12-1625.1
Observed price2022-12-2425.5
Observed price2023-01-2525.3
Observed price2023-01-2925.2
Observed price2023-02-1024.6
Observed price2023-02-2225.5
Observed price2023-03-1424.8
Observed price2023-03-1825.7
Observed price2023-03-2226.2
Observed price2023-04-0727.0
Observed price2023-04-1527.0
Observed price2023-05-0127.8
Observed price2023-05-0927.5
Observed price2023-05-2129.4
Observed price2023-06-0229.1
Observed price2023-06-2228.7
Observed price2023-06-3029.0
Observed price2023-07-0827.5
Observed price2023-07-2428.0
Observed price2023-08-0526.4
Observed price2023-08-2125.8
Observed price2023-08-2926.6
Observed price2023-09-1427.2
Observed price2023-09-2626.4
Observed price2023-09-3026.3
Observed price2023-10-1227.4
Observed price2023-10-2427.0
Observed price2023-11-0127.5
Observed price2023-11-1727.4
Observed price2023-12-0326.8
Observed price2023-12-1127.3
Observed price2023-12-2728.2
Observed price2024-01-1629.3
Observed price2024-01-2428.0
Observed price2024-02-0128.3
Observed price2024-02-0929.4
Observed price2024-02-2129.0
Observed price2024-03-0828.4
Observed price2024-03-2028.4
Observed price2024-03-2830.6
Observed price2024-04-1728.2
Observed price2024-04-2529.4
Observed price2024-05-1130.5
Observed price2024-05-1929.4
Observed price2024-06-0428.8
Observed price2024-06-1229.5
Observed price2024-06-2429.6
Observed price2024-07-0228.3
Observed price2024-07-1428.8
Observed price2024-07-3031.2
Observed price2024-08-0730.9
Observed price2024-08-1931.4
Observed price2024-08-3131.7
Observed price2024-09-0832.6
Observed price2024-10-0631.7
Observed price2024-10-1432.4
Observed price2024-10-2233.0
Observed price2024-11-0734.6
Observed price2024-11-1134.4
Observed price2024-12-0135.5
Observed price2024-12-0536.4
Observed price2024-12-2534.9
Observed price2025-01-0634.9
Observed price2025-01-1035.6
Observed price2025-01-2236.0
Observed price2025-02-0337.0
Observed price2025-02-1537.4
Observed price2025-03-0734.3
Observed price2025-03-1534.9
Observed price2025-03-2332.3
Observed price2025-04-0832.4
Observed price2025-04-2033.6
Observed price2025-04-2832.2
Observed price2025-05-1834.7
Observed price2025-05-2235.5
Observed price2025-06-0334.0
Observed price2025-06-1533.6
Observed price2025-06-1932.6
Observed price2025-07-1732.9
Observed price2025-07-2534.6
Observed price2025-08-0235.1
Observed price2025-08-1033.9
Observed price2025-08-3033.2
Observed price2025-09-1534.0
Observed price2025-09-2332.7
Observed price2025-10-0933.6
Observed price2025-10-2534.6
Observed price2025-11-0233.1
Observed price2025-11-0633.3
Observed price2025-11-2631.5
Observed price2025-12-1230.8
Observed price2025-12-2031.6
Observed price2025-12-2431.4
Observed price2026-01-1330.5
Observed price2026-01-1730.1
Observed price2026-02-0628.0
Observed price2026-02-1427.0
Observed price2026-03-0229.7
Observed price2026-03-0630.2
Observed price2026-03-2627.5
Observed price2026-04-0329.2
Observed price2026-04-1527.2
Observed price2026-05-0128.3
Observed price2026-05-1332.6
Observed price2026-05-1732.9
Observed price2026-05-2531.1
Observed price2026-06-1433.8
Observed price2026-06-3032.3
Observed price2026-07-0432.3
Observed price2026-07-2430.3
Observed price2026-08-0533.1
Observed price2026-08-1731.6
Observed price2026-09-0230.4
Observed price2026-09-1031.0
Observed price2026-09-1431.4
Observed price2026-09-2429.1
Observed price2026-09-2529.4
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1830.0
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1830.9
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1830.3
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1831.5
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1832.1
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1833.1
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1832.4
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1833.7
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1834.4
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1835.4
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1836.1
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1837.2
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1837.6
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1838.7
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1839.5
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1840.2
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1840.6
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1841.9
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1842.7
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1843.6
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1844.4

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when and demand surprise together. Leverage returns inside 1.5x by FY2027, unlocking a multi-billion-dollar buyback just as data-centre, reshored-manufacturing and first-time-outsourcing wins keep at 8-9% rather than fading. Shrinking share count amplifies double-digit profit growth, and investors reclassify Compass from defensive to structural growth , defending a 22x multiple. Compounded, that path delivers materially higher returns than the base case.

Bear case

The bear case activates if the stays high while client headcount falls. AI-driven white-collar rationalisation empties Business & Industry sites, like-for-like volume turns negative, and US healthcare retention slips below 96%, halving net new growth. Pricing then recovers cost inflation with a widening lag, compressing margin just as growth disappoints. A quality premium built on reliability unravels quickly once reliability is questioned, and the multiple compresses toward the mid-teens.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus treats Compass as a bond-proxy whose 7% and 96% retention are near-mechanical, and prices it accordingly at roughly 20x forward and 27x trailing with a 2.1% yield [4][5]. The anchoring bias is duration: investors assume the survives a 5% ten-year. Recent weakness is read as noise, not a discount-rate verdict.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly overestimates what these shares are worth, and the error is arithmetic rather than narrative. Widely circulated data feeds show a 14x P/E and an 11% free-cash yield built from double-counted interim and annual periods; the verifiable figures are roughly $48.5bn trailing revenue, $1.19 trailing and a 27x trailing multiple [4][6]. Compass is an excellent business, but the quality is fully paid for, and the discount-rate reset of 2026 has not yet been fully absorbed into the multiple.

Convergence catalyst

The 24 November 2026 FY results and capital-allocation update are the pivot: they will reveal FY2027 organic guidance, the pace of from 1.7x, and buyback size. The first observable sign of repricing is whether net new business growth holds inside the 4-5% target band.

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