Compass Group PLC (CPG.LSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+66.3%
Includes 2.33% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that an excellent business is priced as one. Compass converts a fragmented $360bn outsourcing market into contracted, inflation-indexed revenue with 96% retention, and that engine should deliver mid-to-high single-digit organic growthorganic growthThe rate at which a company expands revenue through internal operations rather than acquisitions.View full glossary entry with continued margin progression through the decade. Against that, a roughly 20x forward multipleforward multipleForward multiple is a valuation ratio based on forecast earnings, sales, or cash flow rather than historical results.View full glossary entry was set in a cheaper-money era; with the Fed at 3.75%-4.00% and the ten-year near 5%, valuation absorbs part of the earnings compounding. The base case is therefore earnings-led appreciation with a slow multiple leak, producing solid but unspectacular total returns rather than a re-rating windfall.
- Underlying operating profit growth above 11% in FY2026, converting toward roughly 9% annual EPS growtheps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period.View full glossary entry thereafter.
- forward multipleForward multiple is a valuation ratio based on forecast earnings, sales, or cash flow rather than historical results. drifts from about 20x toward 18x, so price lags earnings by roughly two points annually.
- At $45 by 2031 the implied equity value stays near 1.0x sales, consistent with peer scale economics.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 19.63 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-24 | 19.56 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-02 | 20.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-22 | 19.02 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 19.51 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 19.77 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 20.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-18 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 21.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-11 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-19 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-24 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-07 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-23 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-17 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-01 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-10 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-14 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-24 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-10 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-22 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-14 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-07 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-01 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-21 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-02 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-30 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-24 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-05 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-21 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-29 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-14 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-12 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-24 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-03 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 27.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-16 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-24 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-01 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-08 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-20 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-17 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-25 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-11 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-04 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 29.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-24 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-02 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-30 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-19 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-31 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-08 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-06 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-22 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 34.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-05 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-25 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-10 | 35.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-22 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-03 | 37.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-15 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-20 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 32.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-03 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-15 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-17 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-25 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-30 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-23 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-25 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 33.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-26 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-12 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-20 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-24 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-14 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-03 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-15 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-14 | 33.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-05 | 33.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-17 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 30.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 29.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 30.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 30.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 30.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 31.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 32.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 33.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 32.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 33.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 34.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 35.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 36.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 37.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 37.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 38.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 39.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 40.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 40.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 41.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 42.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 43.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 44.4 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when deleveragingdeleveragingThe process of reducing total debt and leverage to strengthen financial stability.View full glossary entry and demand surprise together. Leverage returns inside 1.5x by FY2027, unlocking a multi-billion-dollar buyback just as data-centre, reshored-manufacturing and first-time-outsourcing wins keep organic growthThe rate at which a company expands revenue through internal operations rather than acquisitions. at 8-9% rather than fading. Shrinking share count amplifies double-digit profit growth, and investors reclassify Compass from defensive bond proxybond proxyAn equity or other asset valued partly for stable income and therefore often sensitive to changes in bond yields.View full glossary entry to structural growth compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry, defending a 22x multiple. Compounded, that path delivers materially higher returns than the base case.
Bear case
The bear case activates if the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry stays high while client headcount falls. AI-driven white-collar rationalisation empties Business & Industry sites, like-for-like volume turns negative, and US healthcare retention slips below 96%, halving net new growth. Pricing then recovers cost inflation with a widening lag, compressing margin just as growth disappoints. A quality premium built on reliability unravels quickly once reliability is questioned, and the multiple compresses toward the mid-teens.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats Compass as a bond-proxy compounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period. whose 7% organic growthThe rate at which a company expands revenue through internal operations rather than acquisitions. and 96% retention are near-mechanical, and prices it accordingly at roughly 20x forward and 27x trailing with a 2.1% yield [4][5]. The anchoring bias is duration: investors assume the premium multiple survives a 5% ten-year. Recent weakness is read as noise, not a discount-rate verdict.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates what these shares are worth, and the error is arithmetic rather than narrative. Widely circulated data feeds show a 14x P/E and an 11% free-cash yield built from double-counted interim and annual periods; the verifiable figures are roughly $48.5bn trailing revenue, $1.19 trailing EPS and a 27x trailing multiple [4][6]. Compass is an excellent business, but the quality is fully paid for, and the discount-rate reset of 2026 has not yet been fully absorbed into the multiple.
Convergence catalyst
The 24 November 2026 FY results and capital-allocation update are the pivot: they will reveal FY2027 organic guidance, the pace of deleveragingThe process of reducing total debt and leverage to strengthen financial stability. from 1.7x, and buyback size. The first observable sign of repricing is whether net new business growth holds inside the 4-5% target band.
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