BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Partial Sell
5-Year Return Est.
-18.2%
BBAI.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that BigBear.ai is getting better as a business while getting more expensive as a claim. Revenue reaccelerated to 13% growth, gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry expanded 781 basis points, and debt was effectively eliminated [2][13] — genuine operational progress. Yet the equity trades at 10.2x trailing sales with negative $73.8M free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry, and the financing model requires issuing shares into that multiple to fund acquisitions. Base case: enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry grows modestly as defense AI demand holds, while share count expands faster, leaving per-share value drifting lower toward a blend of tangible book and a rerated software multipleA valuation premium often applied to software businesses due to recurring revenue and scalability., punctuated by narrative-driven spikes.
- Anchor: TTM revenue $132M, gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. 32.8%, operating loss $28.6M in Q2 2026 — breakeven needs roughly $220M revenue.
- Valuation link: 10.2x sales compresses toward 5-6x as growth proves mid-teens, offsetting revenue gains entirely.
- Cross-check: $400.9M tangible book, or $0.84 per share, floors downside well below today's price [14].
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 9.89 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-28 | 9.85 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-14 | 9.86 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 9.98 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 9.96 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 9.98 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 9.98 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-13 | 7.05 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 7.27 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 5.01 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 4.75 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-22 | 5.37 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-11 | 4.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 5.87 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 9.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-23 | 6.29 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 7.50 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-16 | 12.13 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 11.67 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 8.01 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 10.08 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 5.34 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-07 | 5.03 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 3.75 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 3.67 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 3.43 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 2.74 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 1.95 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 1.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-07 | 1.26 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 1.23 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-01 | 1.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 1.80 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 1.15 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-29 | 1.33 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 0.98 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-26 | 0.99 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 0.90 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 0.82 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-28 | 0.65 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 0.76 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 3.46 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-06 | 6.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-22 | 3.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-06 | 3.18 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 1.68 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 1.84 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-03 | 3.13 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 3.33 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-23 | 2.61 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 2.97 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 2.19 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-02 | 2.02 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-18 | 2.55 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-30 | 2.35 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 2.03 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 2.12 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 1.59 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-13 | 1.74 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-25 | 1.31 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-10 | 1.72 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 1.28 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-08 | 1.52 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 1.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 1.19 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 1.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-25 | 1.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 1.64 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-19 | 1.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 2.11 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-08 | 2.19 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 1.83 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 1.58 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 2.19 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 1.93 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-04 | 4.33 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 2.36 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 1.95 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 1.85 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 1.52 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-11 | 1.42 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-15 | 1.68 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-27 | 1.59 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 1.33 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-20 | 1.20 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-10 | 1.55 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 1.58 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 1.31 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 1.19 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-23 | 1.72 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-08 | 1.38 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 1.58 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 1.38 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 1.91 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 1.75 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-03 | 1.60 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-15 | 1.70 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-23 | 2.38 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-13 | 2.52 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-25 | 4.09 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-29 | 4.61 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 3.18 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-26 | 3.83 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 8.59 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 8.87 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 3.34 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-15 | 3.52 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 2.86 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-20 | 2.42 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 2.91 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-06 | 3.09 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 3.85 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-26 | 4.28 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-11 | 3.73 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 3.98 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 7.77 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-17 | 8.22 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 6.62 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 7.11 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 5.50 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 5.35 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 4.87 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-23 | 7.99 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-27 | 6.64 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 8.81 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 6.51 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 5.66 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-14 | 6.06 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 7.02 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 5.86 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 5.62 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-09 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 6.08 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 4.72 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-10 | 4.56 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 3.76 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 4.25 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 3.32 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 3.04 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 3.84 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-27 | 3.73 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-09 | 4.23 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 3.97 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-02 | 5.11 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-14 | 4.04 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-26 | 3.48 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 3.55 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 2.76 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-28 | 2.76 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 3.34 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-21 | 3.22 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 2.82 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 2.90 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 2.80 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 2.80 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 2.80 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 2.55 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 2.68 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 2.46 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 2.31 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 2.52 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 2.35 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 2.23 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 2.36 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 2.20 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 2.28 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 2.15 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 2.25 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 2.16 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 2.23 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 2.14 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 2.23 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 2.18 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 2.25 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 2.22 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 2.29 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when accreditation converts into recurring seats faster than the share count grows. Ask Sage ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry scaling past $100M by 2029 would push consolidated gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. toward 45%, drag the company to EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry breakeven near $200M revenue, and convert the narrative premium into a defensible software multiplesoftware multipleA valuation premium often applied to software businesses due to recurring revenue and scalability.View full glossary entry. Sustained defense appropriations and a disinflation-driven fall in the ten-year yield would amplify the rerate. In that combination, today's $2.80 looks cheap rather than stretched.
Bear case
The bear case activates when growth disappoints while the printing press keeps running. A soft FY2027, book-to-bill persistently under one and a forced equity raise at depressed prices would expand the count past 600 million, trigger an Ask Sage impairment, and strip the platform narrative that justifies 10x sales. With a five-percent ten-year yield offering no valuation support, the multiple collapses toward tangible book near $1 per share. Operational competence would not rescue the per-share claim.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats BigBear.ai as a cheap call option on defense AI — Palantir's little brother with a clean balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry. That belief is anchored on liquidity headlines: $410M cash, debt effectively gone, backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry near $270M [1][2]. What it ignores is the $4.00 average target against $2.80, GuruFocus's $1.31 fair value [21], and a 10.2x sales multiple funded by continuous share issuance.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd overestimates these shares, though less egregiously than a year ago. The blind spot is unit-of-account: investors track enterprise metrics — backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., contract wins, cash — while value accrues per share, and the share count went from roughly 275 million to 479.5 million through recapitalisation, with a 424B5 modelling another 100 million [14]. Corroborating evidence: Q2 backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. fell from about $282M to $269.6M [6][2], so book-to-bill was below one while the dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry machine kept running.
Convergence catalyst
The catalyst is the next equity raise priced against a soft Q3 or Q4 2026 print. When a follow-on lands and consensus models finally rebase revenue per share rather than revenue, the multiple compresses. First observable sign: a prospectus supplement or ATM disclosure alongside unchanged FY2027 growth language.
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