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UPS.NYSE
UPS
Industrials · Air Freight & Logistics

Global package delivery and logistics company serving parcel shipping, supply chain, freight, and international trade flows.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

AI Forecasts

Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for UPS.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 2 July 2026Deep analysis 5 July 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Warren Buffett AI advisor icon

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker FrameworkAI Thinker

Price-adjusted rating

Strong Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+134.5%

Includes 4.58% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

We are being offered a wonderful business at a wonderful price. United Parcel Service possesses a virtually unreplicable global logistics moat, exceptional owner economics, and a shareholder-friendly management team. At a price of $111, Mr. Market has allowed temporary macroeconomic fears—energy spikes, labor contracts, and cyclical volume dips—to obscure the immense cash-generating power of the enterprise. We expect steady, methodical price appreciation driven by the sheer gravity of its 8.5% total shareholder yield and a return to historical margin profiles as cost-outs materialize. The implied is highly realistic, simply returning the company to a fair 18x-20x multiple on normalized in a world starved for real yield.

  • The 5.7% creates a massive, durable floor under the stock.
  • General Rate Increases will continually offset labor and fuel pressures.
  • of industrial supply chains to North America structurally boosts high-margin B2B volumes.
  • Management will methodically buy back undervalued shares, compounding per share.
  • deployment will quietly strip hundreds of millions in physical waste from the network.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.68.65112.23155.82199.4242.98Jun 2021Dec 2023Jun 2026Dec 2028Jul 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-06-28205.23
Observed price2021-07-06213.71
Observed price2021-07-22212.05
Observed price2021-08-03191.37
Observed price2021-08-27192.77
Observed price2021-09-04196.79
Observed price2021-09-08194.57
Observed price2021-09-28186.76
Observed price2021-10-02180.26
Observed price2021-10-22203.81
Observed price2021-10-26218.07
Observed price2021-11-07209.09
Observed price2021-11-23211.81
Observed price2021-12-01199.14
Observed price2021-12-13205.08
Observed price2022-01-02215.82
Observed price2022-01-06216.64
Observed price2022-01-26198.39
Observed price2022-01-30200.37
Observed price2022-02-03228.45
Observed price2022-03-03212.43
Observed price2022-03-07201.18
Observed price2022-03-19220.44
Observed price2022-04-08190.97
Observed price2022-04-20189.75
Observed price2022-05-02178.59
Observed price2022-05-06180.2
Observed price2022-05-22172.64
Observed price2022-06-07185.51
Observed price2022-06-19173.1
Observed price2022-07-09185.42
Observed price2022-07-13177.92
Observed price2022-07-17184.2
Observed price2022-08-06195.31
Observed price2022-08-18208.05
Observed price2022-08-30195.05
Observed price2022-09-11199.16
Observed price2022-09-23166.33
Observed price2022-10-05167.25
Observed price2022-10-13160.58
Observed price2022-10-21162.62
Observed price2022-11-10171.1
Observed price2022-11-18177.2
Observed price2022-11-30189.73
Observed price2022-12-12182.53
Observed price2022-12-20173.63
Observed price2023-01-05173.84
Observed price2023-01-13182.15
Observed price2023-01-29177.65
Observed price2023-02-06189.13
Observed price2023-02-22176.61
Observed price2023-03-06186.51
Observed price2023-03-14185.06
Observed price2023-04-03193.72
Observed price2023-04-23195.63
Observed price2023-04-27176.19
Observed price2023-05-01178.33
Observed price2023-05-13168.03
Observed price2023-06-06167.59
Observed price2023-06-14174.88
Observed price2023-06-22171.46
Observed price2023-07-04182.27
Observed price2023-07-16184.92
Observed price2023-07-24188.34
Observed price2023-08-05181.83
Observed price2023-08-21168.49
Observed price2023-08-29171.75
Observed price2023-09-18158.63
Observed price2023-09-26153.36
Observed price2023-09-30155.34
Observed price2023-10-16156.66
Observed price2023-10-28136.44
Observed price2023-11-09140.03
Observed price2023-11-29152.29
Observed price2023-12-03154.54
Observed price2023-12-15162.94
Observed price2024-01-08159.92
Observed price2024-01-16155.33
Observed price2024-01-28158.45
Observed price2024-02-05139.08
Observed price2024-02-13144.9
Observed price2024-03-04150.61
Observed price2024-03-12157.38
Observed price2024-03-28148.63
Observed price2024-04-05151.36
Observed price2024-04-17142.25
Observed price2024-04-29148.55
Observed price2024-05-03146.43
Observed price2024-05-19148.14
Observed price2024-06-04135.63
Observed price2024-06-24138.6
Observed price2024-07-02134.91
Observed price2024-07-22145.18
Observed price2024-07-26128.83
Observed price2024-07-30129.03
Observed price2024-08-07123.32
Observed price2024-08-27127.9
Observed price2024-09-04128.92
Observed price2024-09-20128.6
Observed price2024-09-28134.95
Observed price2024-10-22131.33
Observed price2024-10-26136.73
Observed price2024-11-11131.61
Observed price2024-11-23135.73
Observed price2024-11-27135.68
Observed price2024-12-17127.32
Observed price2024-12-25126.31
Observed price2025-01-10123.28
Observed price2025-01-26135.18
Observed price2025-02-03111.29
Observed price2025-02-07113.11
Observed price2025-02-27117.63
Observed price2025-03-07121.62
Observed price2025-03-23115.57
Observed price2025-03-27111.01
Observed price2025-04-0891.92
Observed price2025-04-2498.92
Observed price2025-05-0693.81
Observed price2025-05-1899.85
Observed price2025-05-2296.97
Observed price2025-06-0798.6
Observed price2025-06-27101.18
Observed price2025-07-01104.47
Observed price2025-07-2198.9
Observed price2025-07-25103.56
Observed price2025-08-0284.67
Observed price2025-08-2288.82
Observed price2025-09-0784.56
Observed price2025-09-1184.65
Observed price2025-09-2783.98
Observed price2025-10-1383.18
Observed price2025-10-2188.06
Observed price2025-10-2997.4
Observed price2025-11-1892.83
Observed price2025-11-2294.29
Observed price2025-12-12100.92
Observed price2025-12-2899.97
Observed price2026-01-05102
Observed price2026-01-21108.48
Observed price2026-01-29105.99
Observed price2026-02-02110.27
Observed price2026-02-10118.7
Observed price2026-02-26116.63
Observed price2026-03-1896.84
Observed price2026-03-3094.95
Observed price2026-04-11101.81
Observed price2026-04-27108.24
Observed price2026-05-0598.07
Observed price2026-05-1796.66
Observed price2026-05-29106.69
Observed price2026-06-02108.93
Observed price2026-06-10103.26
Observed price2026-06-30107.5
Observed price2026-07-16117.18
Observed price2026-07-24114.79
Observed price2026-08-09104.65
Observed price2026-08-13105.54
Observed price2026-08-21102.01
Observed price2026-09-04102.29
Observed price2026-09-0999.22
Observed price2026-09-11100.28
Published advisor forecast2026-07-02110.66
Published advisor forecast2026-10-02115.09
Published advisor forecast2027-01-02118.54
Published advisor forecast2027-04-02116.17
Published advisor forecast2027-07-02121.98
Published advisor forecast2027-10-02126.86
Published advisor forecast2028-01-02130.66
Published advisor forecast2028-04-02133.27
Published advisor forecast2028-07-02138.61
Published advisor forecast2028-10-02142.76
Published advisor forecast2029-01-02149.9
Published advisor forecast2029-04-02148.4
Published advisor forecast2029-07-02154.34
Published advisor forecast2029-10-02158.97
Published advisor forecast2030-01-02165.33
Published advisor forecast2030-04-02168.63
Published advisor forecast2030-07-02173.69
Published advisor forecast2030-10-02177.17
Published advisor forecast2031-01-02182.48
Published advisor forecast2031-04-02184.31
Published advisor forecast2031-07-02187.99

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

In the bull case, the Base Case thesis is accelerated by rapid technological adoption and competitor weakness. If autonomous middle-mile trucking receives regulatory green lights and UPS integrates these systems, will structurally gap up. Coupled with a swift normalization of global energy prices, the business will gush .

  • Margins permanently expand via autonomous network execution.
  • Total shareholder yield drops as price aggressively re-rates to >20x earnings.
  • B2B volumes surge exponentially from .
  • Mr. Market swings from deep pessimism to institutional euphoria for cash-rich defensives.

Bear case

In the bear case, the structural headwinds overpower the moat. Amazon weaponizes its logistics network into a third-party utility, igniting a devastating . Simultaneously, crushes consumer demand while legacy union contracts bleed the bottom line.

  • evaporates under Amazon's predatory third-party assault.
  • compress into the low single digits.
  • Management is forced to pause buybacks and reconsider the sacred dividend.
  • The asset becomes a , suffering of earning power.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd and the media are utterly obsessed with the shiny allure of AI hardware and mega-cap tech IPOs, treating legacy industrials like UPS as uninvestable . The prevailing narrative assumes UPS is permanently trapped in a vise between voracious Teamsters union demands, Amazon's logistics encroachment, and . Mr. Market is anchoring heavily on recent and volume weakness, assuming the business is in structural rather than a standard .

Alpha-gap assessment

The market is fundamentally mispricing the durability of UPS's and the cash-generative power of its mature network. Wall Street analysts are projecting linear margin decay from labor and fuel, completely ignoring that UPS is a capital-heavy with absolute over its captive customer base. More importantly, they are blind to the : an 8.5% total shareholder yield pays us handsomely to wait. The is that UPS is effectively a high-yield inflation-protected bond with an embedded call option on supply-chain regionalization and AI-driven cost-out.

Convergence catalyst

The will close when UPS reports consecutive quarters of expanding , proving that rate increases have successfully outpaced labor and fuel cost inflation. This inflection, likely arriving in late 2026 or early 2027 as macro-shocks from the Middle East digest, will force yield-starved institutions to aggressively re-rate the stock.

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