Monday.Com Ltd (MNDY.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 21 September 2026Deep analysis 21 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+65.3%
MNDY.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is a narrative colliding with a contract book. The market has priced monday.com as a per-seat casualty of agentic AIagentic aiAutonomous artificial intelligence systems capable of performing complex tasks and decision-making without constant human intervention.View full glossary entry, yet backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry is growing faster than revenue and AI credits already supply 17% of net new ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry [5][9]. The base case is neither vindication nor collapse: growth settles into the low-to-mid teens, non-GAAP margin grinds toward the low twenties on the restructured cost base, and the valuation re-rates from distressed toward merely cautious. Cash flow, not multiple euphoria, does the work — with stock compensation quietly taxing a third of it.
- FY2026 guide of roughly $1.47 billion revenue and $285 million adjusted free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. against a ~$2.7 billion enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry.
- That is under 10x forward enterprise free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns., versus low-teens for decelerating but profitable software peers.
- Cross-check: ~$140 by 2031 needs $2.3-2.5 billion revenue, 22% FCF marginfcf marginsFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry, modest buyback resumption.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 370 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-22 | 374 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-30 | 326 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-08 | 340 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-24 | 382 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-09 | 445 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 343 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-29 | 366 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-03 | 276 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 310 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 188 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-13 | 224 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-25 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-13 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-02 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-04 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-24 | 99.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-28 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 92.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-25 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-03 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-19 | 90.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-08 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-05 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-17 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-25 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-03 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-15 | 92.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-08 | 80.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-10 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-26 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-16 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-28 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-12 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-05 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-07 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 167 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-08 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-06 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-11 | 156 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-31 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 156 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-02 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-18 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-26 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-11 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 171 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-05 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-17 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-02 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-22 | 203 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-26 | 209 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-23 | 208 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-02 | 229 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-26 | 229 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-07 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-09 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 241 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-25 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-02 | 219 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-22 | 224 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 217 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-21 | 267 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-29 | 264 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-06 | 241 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-26 | 273 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 290 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-01 | 300 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 308 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 295 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 241 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 304 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 321 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 280 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 277 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 267 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 274 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 293 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-24 | 291 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 309 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 280 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 312 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-07 | 307 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 262 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-24 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-09 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-07 | 179 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 205 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-04 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-28 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 84.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 72.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-08 | 80.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 72.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-01 | 68.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 62.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-29 | 66.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 76.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 72.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 91.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-08 | 83.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 70.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-06 | 82.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 73.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 80.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 93.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-31 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 83.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 94.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 85.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 83.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 85.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 88.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 82.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 87.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 90.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 95.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 91.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 97.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 101 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 105 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 108 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 112 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 116 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 117 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 125 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 133 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 137 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 141 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates the moment AI credits grow faster than seats shrink. If AI-related annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. keeps compounding toward a quarter of net new business while NDR stabilizes above 110%, the disruption story inverts: automation becomes a revenue meter rather than a headcount tax. Restructuring savings then drop through an 89% gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry, adjusted FCFfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry clears $450 million by 2029, and a reloaded buyback retires floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry at low prices. Re-rating to mid-teens EV/ doubles the equity from here.
Bear case
The bear case begins with a single disclosure: net dollar retention through 100%. That would confirm customers are consolidating seats faster than credits replace them, pushing growth to high single digits while inference costs cap free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. conversion near 19%. Stock compensation of $190-200 million then consumes most of the remaining cash flow, the board husbands liquidity instead of repurchasing, and per-share support disappears. A decelerating, dilutive platform reprices toward 1.5x sales — roughly $50 per share.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats per-seat SaaSsoftware as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.View full glossary entry as a melting ice cube and monday.com as Exhibit A — down 81% from highs, 42% year-to-date, punished 8-10% even on a Q2 beat [18][19]. Sell-side clings to a $109 average target while cutting numbers, which is anchoring, not conviction [22]. Settled assumption: AI agents eliminate the seats, so growth deceleration is permanent rather than cyclical.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares, though less dramatically than the drawdown implies. The blind spot is the contract book: cRPO grew 27% and total RPO 34% against 22% revenue, which is the arithmetic of expanding commitments, not disappearing seats [5][1]. Against a roughly $2.7 billion enterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents., that buys $1.5 billion annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. and $280-290 million guided adjusted free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.. The offsetting truth the bulls skip is $190-200 million of annual stock compensation, which makes owner earningsowner earningsAn estimate of cash available to owners after operating costs, taxes, and the capital spending needed to maintain competitive capacity.View full glossary entry far thinner than headline cash flow and justifies part of the discount.
Convergence catalyst
February 2027's FY2026 results and first FY2027 guidance is the hinge. A guide holding low-to-mid-teens growth with NDR above 105%, ideally paired with a fresh repurchase authorization, converts the debate from survival to valuation. First sign of repricing: short covering and a close back above the $109 consensus target.
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