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KTOS.NASDAQ
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Defense technology company developing uncrewed aircraft, propulsion, satellite communications and other systems for national security applications.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is a company whose operations and whose shareholder economics have separated. Revenue compounds near 20% organically with $2.084B of , yet trailing operating income is roughly zero, is minus $129M, and 21% was issued at $84.00 into a stock now at $47.50 [7][12][15]. The base case assumes the hypersonic and propulsion ramps convert, margins widen toward high-single-digit operating levels by 2029, and turns positive around 2028 — while the multiple continues compressing from extreme levels toward mature defense-technology norms. Returns come from earnings growth outrunning de-rating, not from both working together.

  • Revenue near $3.3-3.6B by 2031 with approaching 14% implies roughly $480M .
  • At 25-28x , less modest net cash, that supports an equity value near $13-14B.
  • Against roughly 200 million shares after residual , that cross-checks to $68-75 per share.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-2.8933.1369.16105.18141.2Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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Observed price2021-09-1422.1
Observed price2021-09-2623.1
Observed price2021-10-2022.5
Observed price2021-10-2821.7
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Observed price2021-12-1519.24
Observed price2022-01-0419.98
Observed price2022-01-0818.47
Observed price2022-01-2017.09
Observed price2022-01-2816.36
Observed price2022-02-2115.61
Observed price2022-02-2518.68
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Observed price2022-03-1318.33
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Observed price2023-12-2120.1
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Observed price2026-09-2148.6
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Published advisor forecast2026-09-1847.5
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1845.1
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1848.7
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Published advisor forecast2027-09-1850.5
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Published advisor forecast2028-03-1851.5
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Published advisor forecast2028-09-1856.8
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1857.9
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1860.2
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Published advisor forecast2030-03-1864.5
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1866.4
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1865.1
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1867.7
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1869.0
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1871.1
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1872.5

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when cash flow and a production award arrive together. A Golden Dome or directed-energy production contract converts the $15.0B pipeline into funded , the pre-built Spartan and hypersonic plant absorbs volume, and incremental lifts faster than revenue. Positive in 2028 then removes the overhang entirely, allowing buybacks instead of issuance. With rates easing simultaneously, both earnings and multiple expand, delivering returns well beyond the base path.

Bear case

The bear case begins with appropriations slipping and hypersonic awards descoping. from newly built capacity then meet flat volumes, pushing an already 2% negative, while stays trapped in unbilled receivables. Management responds by acquiring growth or tapping the authorized share pool, diluting holders a second time below issue price. With the 10-year still near 5%, a growth stock without growth or cash re-rates toward asset value, halving the shares again.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus trade is "cheap now, after a 63% crash": shares fell from roughly $134 in January to $47.50, yet sell-side targets sit near $105-118 with 85-90% buy ratings [1][3][15]. The crowd anchors on and the hypersonics story while treating and 21% as temporary growth costs. Targets stayed static while estimates were cut.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, but for a different reason than the bulls claim. Consensus buys the revenue ramp; the overlooked evidence is the . After the February raise, Kratos holds roughly $1.44B of cash against 0.07 debt-to-equity [12], meaning the guided is voluntary capacity investment, not distress. The market is pricing execution risk twice, through both a compressed multiple and a burn discount. The offsetting blind spot bulls ignore is that management issued at $84 and can issue again.

Convergence catalyst

The decisive trigger is the February 2027 fourth-quarter release with initial FY2027 guidance quantifying hypersonics above $700M and a narrowing free cash outflow. The first observable sign of repricing is growth exceeding revenue growth, confirming that the pre-built plant is finally absorbing volume rather than consuming it.

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