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F.NYSE
Ford Motor
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers

Global automotive company designing, manufacturing, and servicing vehicles with focus on electric and autonomous technology.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Ford Motor.

Ford Motor Company (F.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Ford's best business is trapped inside its worst narrative. generates roughly $7bn of commercial EBIT with software attach and fleet stickiness, but the market values the whole company as a single low-margin cyclical because Model e loses $4bn and the 2025 write-down dominated the headlines. Over five years the reset drag fades, the Louisville platform either scales or is contained, and shareholders are paid a well-covered 4.5% dividend while waiting. Returns come from cash distribution and modest multiple repair, not from a re-rating to growth-stock status.

  • $10.5bn guided adjusted EBIT, taxed near 22% after interest, implies roughly $1.85 — 7.1x the anchor.
  • Guided $6-7bn adjusted is an 11-13% yield on $52.7bn; dividend covered about 2.5x.
  • At 8x a mid-cycle $1.95 , equity approximates $62bn, near $16 per share.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.7.7312.3616.9921.6226.26Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1513.34
Observed price2021-09-2013.26
Observed price2021-10-0714.95
Observed price2021-10-1215.37
Observed price2021-11-0318.69
Observed price2021-11-2419.93
Observed price2021-11-3019.19
Observed price2021-12-0519.22
Observed price2021-12-1121.2
Observed price2022-01-1224.7
Observed price2022-01-2320.2
Observed price2022-02-0320.0
Observed price2022-02-1417.47
Observed price2022-02-2417.83
Observed price2022-03-1316.16
Observed price2022-03-2916.79
Observed price2022-04-0915.37
Observed price2022-04-2015.92
Observed price2022-05-1112.91
Observed price2022-05-2212.89
Observed price2022-05-2713.61
Observed price2022-06-1312.58
Observed price2022-07-0411.22
Observed price2022-07-1011.28
Observed price2022-07-3114.79
Observed price2022-08-1716.15
Observed price2022-08-2715.47
Observed price2022-09-1315.30
Observed price2022-09-2412.57
Observed price2022-09-2912.22
Observed price2022-10-1011.38
Observed price2022-10-2612.87
Observed price2022-11-1114.46
Observed price2022-11-2214.02
Observed price2022-12-1412.72
Observed price2022-12-2511.41
Observed price2023-01-1013.10
Observed price2023-01-2112.58
Observed price2023-02-0613.36
Observed price2023-02-1113.21
Observed price2023-02-2712.07
Observed price2023-03-2111.50
Observed price2023-04-0112.40
Observed price2023-04-0612.70
Observed price2023-04-2811.67
Observed price2023-05-0911.90
Observed price2023-05-2511.48
Observed price2023-05-3112.00
Observed price2023-06-1614.41
Observed price2023-07-0715.06
Observed price2023-07-1814.12
Observed price2023-07-2413.66
Observed price2023-08-1412.00
Observed price2023-08-2511.93
Observed price2023-09-1012.40
Observed price2023-09-1612.60
Observed price2023-10-0712.07
Observed price2023-10-1312.17
Observed price2023-10-299.82
Observed price2023-11-0910.13
Observed price2023-12-0110.58
Observed price2023-12-0610.80
Observed price2023-12-2812.36
Observed price2024-01-0212.14
Observed price2024-01-1811.21
Observed price2024-01-2911.63
Observed price2024-02-0912.59
Observed price2024-03-0212.42
Observed price2024-03-1212.12
Observed price2024-03-2913.27
Observed price2024-04-1412.35
Observed price2024-04-2512.81
Observed price2024-05-1112.32
Observed price2024-05-1612.30
Observed price2024-06-0712.07
Observed price2024-06-1811.80
Observed price2024-07-0412.87
Observed price2024-07-1514.33
Observed price2024-07-3110.52
Observed price2024-08-069.78
Observed price2024-08-2711.12
Observed price2024-09-0211.00
Observed price2024-09-2310.52
Observed price2024-10-0410.59
Observed price2024-10-2011.06
Observed price2024-10-3110.39
Observed price2024-11-0611.16
Observed price2024-11-2711.03
Observed price2024-12-1410.28
Observed price2024-12-2410.02
Observed price2025-01-049.69
Observed price2025-01-2610.07
Observed price2025-02-069.38
Observed price2025-02-229.42
Observed price2025-03-059.29
Observed price2025-03-169.83
Observed price2025-03-2610.25
Observed price2025-04-069.28
Observed price2025-04-2810.02
Observed price2025-05-0310.28
Observed price2025-05-1410.71
Observed price2025-05-3010.23
Observed price2025-06-2110.72
Observed price2025-06-2610.80
Observed price2025-07-0711.88
Observed price2025-08-0311.03
Observed price2025-08-1411.48
Observed price2025-08-2011.62
Observed price2025-08-2511.81
Observed price2025-09-1611.68
Observed price2025-10-0212.57
Observed price2025-10-1311.68
Observed price2025-10-2913.18
Observed price2025-11-0913.32
Observed price2025-11-2013.00
Observed price2025-12-0613.16
Observed price2025-12-1113.59
Observed price2026-01-0213.50
Observed price2026-01-1313.90
Observed price2026-02-0913.60
Observed price2026-02-1414.12
Observed price2026-02-2513.92
Observed price2026-03-1911.88
Observed price2026-03-2911.48
Observed price2026-04-1512.71
Observed price2026-04-2012.78
Observed price2026-05-0111.90
Observed price2026-05-1713.17
Observed price2026-05-2815.87
Observed price2026-06-1314.37
Observed price2026-07-0513.76
Observed price2026-07-1013.96
Observed price2026-07-2714.70
Observed price2026-08-1213.85
Observed price2026-08-2314.07
Observed price2026-09-0214.40
Observed price2026-09-2213.10
Observed price2026-09-2312.94
Observed price2026-09-2412.60
Observed price2026-09-2512.71
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1813.21
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1813.74
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1812.91
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1812.66
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1813.29
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1812.49
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1812.87
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1813.64
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1814.05
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1814.33
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1815.04
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1815.35
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1814.73
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1815.32
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1815.78
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1816.10
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1815.61
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1816.24
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1816.56
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1816.73
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1816.90

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when the Fed pivots while Louisville actually works. Easing rates simultaneously lower Ford Credit's funding cost, restore truck affordability and lift the discount multiple, while a $30,000 electric pickup at scale turns Model e's $4bn loss into near break-even. on fixed plant cost then converts a 16.5m SAAR into adjusted near $2.50, and the market re-rates a cash-returning franchise from 7x toward 9x — roughly a doubling from today.

Bear case

The bear case begins in the finance arm, not the factory. Sustained five-percent long yields season high-rate loan vintages into rising delinquencies, used-vehicle residuals break, and Ford Credit's $2.5bn EBT halves just as the Section 232 offset expires in 2027 and Universal EV launch costs peak. Consolidated leverage then attracts rating pressure, the 15-cent dividend enters review, and the supporting the shares disappears — a decline toward $8-9 with no near-term catalyst.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Ford is a permanent seven-times-earnings dividend stock that cannot escape its own cost structure. The 2025 write-down confirmed priors rather than challenging them. Sell-side carries a Buy consensus with a $16.12 average target [19], yet the shares sit less than 1% above the first 2026 trading day [18] — targets nobody underwrites with capital. The anchoring bias is the decade-long $10-14 range.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, though not dramatically. Three pieces of evidence are being misread: the FY2025 loss was a $14.4bn non-cash impairment, not operating collapse [1][2]; the write-down shrank book equity 19.8%, mechanically raising price-to-book to 1.47 without any change in cash economics; and guided adjusted of $6-7bn [6] is an 11-13% yield on a $52.7bn capitalisation. Ford did not get more expensive — it got smaller on paper.

Convergence catalyst

The February 2027 full-year release is the hinge. If 2027 guidance holds near $10bn adjusted EBIT while absorbing Universal EV launch costs and the Section 232 offset step-down, the market must reprice cyclical earnings durability. The first observable sign is EBIT printing above $7bn for 2026.

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