Walmart Inc. (WMT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+32.6%
Includes 1.12% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Walmart is executing well and still may not reward shareholders adequately. Adjusted earnings should compound roughly 9% annually as retail mediaretail mediaAdvertising sold by retailers using their websites, stores, customer relationships, or transaction data.View full glossary entry, marketplace and membership displace pure merchandise margin, while automation deflates the cost to serve. But the market currently pays 38.6x trailing earnings for that, against a 4.998% risk-free rate. Over five years the multiple more likely drifts toward 29-30x than holds. The result is a business that grows earnings roughly 55% cumulatively while the share price advances about a quarter, with the de-rating quietly consuming the difference.
- FY27 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80-$2.87 compounding near 9% implies roughly $4.50 by fiscal 2032.
- Applying 29-30x to that figure yields about $134 per share, a modest 25% five-year gain.
- Cross-check: $851 billion market capitalisation on $13.51 billion TTM free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry is a 1.59% yield.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-18 | 48.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-04 | 45.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-15 | 47.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-05 | 50.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-11 | 49.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-02 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-08 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-29 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 48.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-05 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-26 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-25 | 47.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-15 | 51.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-21 | 52.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-18 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-08 | 40.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-10 | 41.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-01 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-06 | 42.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 46.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-02 | 44.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-13 | 45.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-10 | 43.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-20 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-26 | 47.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 49.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-27 | 50.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-13 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-29 | 47.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-14 | 47.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-05 | 47.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-16 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-04 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-31 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-05 | 49.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-21 | 50.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 50.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-23 | 49.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 49.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-19 | 51.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-05 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 51.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-21 | 52.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-06 | 53.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-23 | 52.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-08 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-13 | 54.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-05 | 53.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 52.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-31 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-11 | 55.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-22 | 51.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-08 | 50.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-24 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-29 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-25 | 54.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 56.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 58.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-14 | 61.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-19 | 60.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 59.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 59.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 60.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-12 | 60.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-02 | 66.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-13 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-18 | 67.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 68.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-21 | 70.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 67.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-22 | 75.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 76.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-12 | 80.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-28 | 81.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-09 | 79.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-31 | 82.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-10 | 84.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-16 | 85.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 93.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-13 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-03 | 90.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 91.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-30 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-10 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-26 | 96.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-03 | 95.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 85.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-04 | 85.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-20 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-07 | 98.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-02 | 98.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 97.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-10 | 94.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 95.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-06 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-11 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-27 | 96.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-07 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-04 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-11 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-27 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-13 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-24 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-14 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-25 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-15 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-09 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-19 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-05 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-15 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-18 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-28 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-03 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-08 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-16 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-21 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-11 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-28 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 108 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 107 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 110 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 107 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 109 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 110 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 111 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 109 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 111 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 115 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 117 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 119 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 122 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 124 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 126 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 129 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 131 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 134 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the energy shockenergy shockA sudden disruption or price change in energy markets that affects inflation, demand, and operating costs.View full glossary entry breaks and the Fed pivots. Falling Brent removes the $2 billion fuel headwind, core inflation returns toward 2.5%, and the ten-year yield drops from 4.998% toward 3.5%, restoring the premium investors pay for defensive compounders. Simultaneously, retail mediaAdvertising sold by retailers using their websites, stores, customer relationships, or transaction data. disclosure reveals a software-margin business hiding inside a grocer, prompting sum-of-the-partssum of the partsA valuation approach that separately values business segments or assets and then combines them, adjusting for debt, cash, and shared costs.View full glossary entry revaluation. Earnings beat toward $5.00 by fiscal 2032 on a 34x multiple — roughly $170 per share.
Bear case
The bear case begins when the tariff-refund price subsidy lapses into a consumer recession. Comps slow below 2%, Walmart defends volume by sacrificing gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry, and rising automation depreciation converts thin operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry into operating deleverage. Meanwhile agentic-commerce platforms capture the discovery layer, stalling Walmart Connect's growth and destroying the premium-multiple justification. Adjusted plateaus near $3.20 and the multiple compresses toward 22x — approximately $70 per share, a painful reminder that quality is not valuation insurance.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats Walmart as the AI-era retail platform that simply got cheap: 43 analysts rate it Buy with a $127 target, 19% above the $107 close [21], and third-party fair values reach $136 [23]. That target-price gap is crowding, not edge. The anchoring bias is on the February-May $126-127 plateau management itself paid [2], not on what a 38.6x multiple survives at a 5% ten-year yield.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd overestimates these shares, though mildly. Consensus correctly identifies a fortress operator compounding adjusted earnings 8%-10%, then commits the classic error of assuming operational excellence and shareholder return are the same variable. The overlooked evidence is the cash-yield arithmetic: 1.59% free-cash-flow yield against a 4.998% risk-free rate means investors are paying for a decade of flawless mix shift with no margin of safetymargin of safetyThe difference between an estimated intrinsic value and the purchase price, intended to allow for uncertainty or analytical error.View full glossary entry. The de-rating from 46x to 38.6x is not finished; it is mid-course.
Convergence catalyst
The February 2027 FY2028 guidance is the trigger. Lapping the $2.9 billion tariff-refund price investment [6] against $2 billion of fuel headwinds will force a conservative adjusted range, and the first observable sign is sell-side targets converging downward toward price rather than price rising toward targets.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.