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WMT.NYSE
Walmart
Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Global retailer operating hypermarkets, discount stores, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce platforms for everyday consumer goods.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Walmart.

Walmart Inc. (WMT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Walmart is executing well and still may not reward shareholders adequately. Adjusted earnings should compound roughly 9% annually as , marketplace and membership displace pure merchandise margin, while automation deflates the cost to serve. But the market currently pays 38.6x trailing earnings for that, against a 4.998% risk-free rate. Over five years the multiple more likely drifts toward 29-30x than holds. The result is a business that grows earnings roughly 55% cumulatively while the share price advances about a quarter, with the de-rating quietly consuming the difference.

  • FY27 adjusted guidance of $2.80-$2.87 compounding near 9% implies roughly $4.50 by fiscal 2032.
  • Applying 29-30x to that figure yields about $134 per share, a modest 25% five-year gain.
  • Cross-check: $851 billion market capitalisation on $13.51 billion TTM is a 1.59% yield.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.30.4958.6886.88115.07143.27Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1848.0
Observed price2021-10-0445.4
Observed price2021-10-1547.1
Observed price2021-11-0550.0
Observed price2021-11-1149.4
Observed price2021-12-0246.6
Observed price2021-12-0846.5
Observed price2021-12-2947.6
Observed price2022-01-1448.2
Observed price2022-01-2545.7
Observed price2022-02-0546.5
Observed price2022-02-1545.3
Observed price2022-02-2645.7
Observed price2022-03-1448.4
Observed price2022-03-2547.9
Observed price2022-04-1551.9
Observed price2022-04-2152.5
Observed price2022-05-1247.6
Observed price2022-05-1843.2
Observed price2022-06-0840.4
Observed price2022-06-1339.9
Observed price2022-07-0541.4
Observed price2022-07-1041.8
Observed price2022-08-0144.0
Observed price2022-08-0642.9
Observed price2022-08-1746.1
Observed price2022-09-0244.1
Observed price2022-09-1345.5
Observed price2022-10-1043.1
Observed price2022-10-2045.0
Observed price2022-10-2647.1
Observed price2022-11-1649.3
Observed price2022-11-2750.8
Observed price2022-12-1348.6
Observed price2022-12-2947.4
Observed price2023-01-0948.5
Observed price2023-01-1447.7
Observed price2023-02-0547.2
Observed price2023-02-1648.7
Observed price2023-03-0447.0
Observed price2023-03-0945.8
Observed price2023-03-3148.7
Observed price2023-04-0549.8
Observed price2023-04-2150.3
Observed price2023-05-1250.9
Observed price2023-05-2349.3
Observed price2023-05-2949.0
Observed price2023-06-1951.8
Observed price2023-07-0552.3
Observed price2023-07-1651.6
Observed price2023-07-2152.5
Observed price2023-08-0653.5
Observed price2023-08-2352.6
Observed price2023-09-0854.6
Observed price2023-09-1354.8
Observed price2023-10-0553.0
Observed price2023-10-1052.8
Observed price2023-10-3154.9
Observed price2023-11-1155.4
Observed price2023-11-2251.9
Observed price2023-12-0850.4
Observed price2023-12-2452.1
Observed price2023-12-2952.7
Observed price2024-01-2054.2
Observed price2024-01-2554.4
Observed price2024-02-1656.9
Observed price2024-02-2158.2
Observed price2024-03-1461.0
Observed price2024-03-1960.9
Observed price2024-04-0459.6
Observed price2024-05-0159.7
Observed price2024-05-0660.2
Observed price2024-05-1260.1
Observed price2024-06-0266.4
Observed price2024-06-1366.6
Observed price2024-06-1867.6
Observed price2024-07-0468.7
Observed price2024-07-2170.7
Observed price2024-08-0667.7
Observed price2024-08-2275.4
Observed price2024-08-2776.2
Observed price2024-09-1280.4
Observed price2024-09-2881.3
Observed price2024-10-0979.8
Observed price2024-10-3182.0
Observed price2024-11-1084.7
Observed price2024-11-1685.5
Observed price2024-12-0793.8
Observed price2024-12-1394.2
Observed price2025-01-0390.5
Observed price2025-01-1491.4
Observed price2025-01-3098.2
Observed price2025-02-10103
Observed price2025-02-2696.1
Observed price2025-03-0395.0
Observed price2025-03-2585.3
Observed price2025-04-0485.6
Observed price2025-04-2094.7
Observed price2025-04-2696.4
Observed price2025-05-0798.0
Observed price2025-06-0298.9
Observed price2025-06-1395.5
Observed price2025-06-2997.8
Observed price2025-07-1094.9
Observed price2025-07-1595.1
Observed price2025-08-06103
Observed price2025-08-11101
Observed price2025-08-2796.7
Observed price2025-09-07101
Observed price2025-09-18104
Observed price2025-10-04102
Observed price2025-10-15109
Observed price2025-10-31101
Observed price2025-11-11103
Observed price2025-11-27107
Observed price2025-12-13116
Observed price2025-12-24111
Observed price2026-01-14119
Observed price2026-01-25118
Observed price2026-02-04128
Observed price2026-02-15128
Observed price2026-03-09123
Observed price2026-03-19119
Observed price2026-04-05127
Observed price2026-04-15125
Observed price2026-05-01131
Observed price2026-05-18134
Observed price2026-05-28117
Observed price2026-06-03117
Observed price2026-06-08120
Observed price2026-07-16115
Observed price2026-07-21110
Observed price2026-08-01111
Observed price2026-08-11116
Observed price2026-08-28103
Observed price2026-09-13109
Observed price2026-09-21107
Observed price2026-09-23111
Observed price2026-09-25108
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18107
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18110
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18107
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18109
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18110
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18111
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18109
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18111
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18113
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18115
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18117
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18119
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18120
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18122
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18121
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18124
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18126
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18129
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18130
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18131
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18134

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when the breaks and the Fed pivots. Falling Brent removes the $2 billion fuel headwind, core inflation returns toward 2.5%, and the ten-year yield drops from 4.998% toward 3.5%, restoring the premium investors pay for defensive compounders. Simultaneously, disclosure reveals a software-margin business hiding inside a grocer, prompting revaluation. Earnings beat toward $5.00 by fiscal 2032 on a 34x multiple — roughly $170 per share.

Bear case

The bear case begins when the tariff-refund price subsidy lapses into a consumer recession. Comps slow below 2%, Walmart defends volume by sacrificing , and rising automation depreciation converts thin into operating deleverage. Meanwhile agentic-commerce platforms capture the discovery layer, stalling Walmart Connect's growth and destroying the premium-multiple justification. Adjusted plateaus near $3.20 and the multiple compresses toward 22x — approximately $70 per share, a painful reminder that quality is not valuation insurance.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd treats Walmart as the AI-era retail platform that simply got cheap: 43 analysts rate it Buy with a $127 target, 19% above the $107 close [21], and third-party fair values reach $136 [23]. That target-price gap is crowding, not edge. The anchoring bias is on the February-May $126-127 plateau management itself paid [2], not on what a 38.6x multiple survives at a 5% ten-year yield.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd overestimates these shares, though mildly. Consensus correctly identifies a fortress operator compounding adjusted earnings 8%-10%, then commits the classic error of assuming operational excellence and shareholder return are the same variable. The overlooked evidence is the cash-yield arithmetic: 1.59% free-cash-flow yield against a 4.998% risk-free rate means investors are paying for a decade of flawless mix shift with no . The de-rating from 46x to 38.6x is not finished; it is mid-course.

Convergence catalyst

The February 2027 FY2028 guidance is the trigger. Lapping the $2.9 billion tariff-refund price investment [6] against $2 billion of fuel headwinds will force a conservative adjusted range, and the first observable sign is sell-side targets converging downward toward price rather than price rising toward targets.

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