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VATN.SIX
Valiant Holding
Financials · Regional Banks
Valiant Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the areas of financing, payments, savings, investments, and retirement planning in Switzerland.MoreShow less
HQ: SwitzerlandListed: Switzerland

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Valiant Holding.

Valiant Holding AG (VATN.SIX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is simple: an operationally competent bank trapped in a that denies it a decent . Valiant delivers record profits, funds a roughly 5% total distribution from surplus capital, and still trades below book because of 5.6% sits under its cost of equity. The base case assumes no early SNB rescue: per share compounds around 3% annually, buybacks at 0.87x book add a further point of accretion, and the multiple drifts up only modestly as fee income dilutes the rate dependence. Returns arrive mainly through cash, not re-rating.

  • per share near CHF 175-180 grows roughly 3% yearly on retained earnings plus buyback accretion.
  • At 0.90-0.95x book by 2031, that implies a share price around CHF 190-195.
  • Cross-check: CHF 6.00-plus dividends annually deliver most of the total return, not price appreciation.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in CHF.73.17105.36137.56169.76201.95Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in CHF.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (CHF)
Observed price2021-09-1587.8
Observed price2021-09-1986.7
Observed price2021-10-0590.3
Observed price2021-10-1792.1
Observed price2021-10-2990.6
Observed price2021-11-0292.0
Observed price2021-11-2286.4
Observed price2021-11-2685.7
Observed price2021-12-1687.8
Observed price2021-12-2086.3
Observed price2022-01-0993.3
Observed price2022-01-1396.7
Observed price2022-01-2592.2
Observed price2022-02-1494.5
Observed price2022-02-1898.9
Observed price2022-03-0688.2
Observed price2022-03-2296.7
Observed price2022-03-3097.4
Observed price2022-04-0794.5
Observed price2022-04-2395.5
Observed price2022-05-0198.2
Observed price2022-05-1397.7
Observed price2022-06-0288.4
Observed price2022-06-0687.1
Observed price2022-06-1883.9
Observed price2022-06-3083.9
Observed price2022-07-0886.5
Observed price2022-07-2884.8
Observed price2022-08-1391.9
Observed price2022-08-2189.1
Observed price2022-09-0692.0
Observed price2022-09-1092.7
Observed price2022-09-1895.7
Observed price2022-10-0494.8
Observed price2022-10-2497.3
Observed price2022-10-2897.4
Observed price2022-11-0998.7
Observed price2022-11-25101
Observed price2022-12-0798.5
Observed price2022-12-1598.4
Observed price2023-01-04101
Observed price2023-01-08101
Observed price2023-01-24105
Observed price2023-02-13104
Observed price2023-02-21103
Observed price2023-02-25104
Observed price2023-03-1798.0
Observed price2023-03-2595.4
Observed price2023-04-10102
Observed price2023-04-26104
Observed price2023-05-0499.6
Observed price2023-05-16105
Observed price2023-05-2896.2
Observed price2023-06-0595.7
Observed price2023-06-2192.9
Observed price2023-06-2591.9
Observed price2023-07-1595.3
Observed price2023-07-2395.0
Observed price2023-07-2798.1
Observed price2023-08-1296.5
Observed price2023-08-2094.3
Observed price2023-09-0993.6
Observed price2023-09-2595.7
Observed price2023-10-0394.2
Observed price2023-10-1997.5
Observed price2023-10-3198.4
Observed price2023-11-1294.9
Observed price2023-11-1695.7
Observed price2023-12-0693.3
Observed price2023-12-1093.4
Observed price2023-12-3095.7
Observed price2024-01-0796.6
Observed price2024-01-23102
Observed price2024-02-04105
Observed price2024-02-12102
Observed price2024-02-20102
Observed price2024-03-11105
Observed price2024-03-15104
Observed price2024-04-04107
Observed price2024-04-08108
Observed price2024-04-20109
Observed price2024-05-06108
Observed price2024-05-22110
Observed price2024-05-30102
Observed price2024-06-15103
Observed price2024-06-19103
Observed price2024-07-05101
Observed price2024-07-25105
Observed price2024-08-0298.5
Observed price2024-08-1097.3
Observed price2024-08-1898.5
Observed price2024-09-0797.5
Observed price2024-09-1599.4
Observed price2024-09-27101
Observed price2024-10-0598.3
Observed price2024-10-21102
Observed price2024-11-02100
Observed price2024-11-10101
Observed price2024-11-30105
Observed price2024-12-04106
Observed price2024-12-20104
Observed price2024-12-28105
Observed price2025-01-13109
Observed price2025-02-02108
Observed price2025-02-10113
Observed price2025-02-18113
Observed price2025-03-06118
Observed price2025-03-10117
Observed price2025-03-26120
Observed price2025-04-07115
Observed price2025-04-19121
Observed price2025-05-09122
Observed price2025-05-17118
Observed price2025-06-02121
Observed price2025-06-10118
Observed price2025-06-14118
Observed price2025-07-04123
Observed price2025-07-08125
Observed price2025-07-20131
Observed price2025-08-01128
Observed price2025-08-13132
Observed price2025-08-25133
Observed price2025-09-06129
Observed price2025-09-26127
Observed price2025-10-08130
Observed price2025-10-20127
Observed price2025-11-01132
Observed price2025-11-05131
Observed price2025-11-13139
Observed price2025-11-29141
Observed price2025-12-19148
Observed price2025-12-23149
Observed price2026-01-04155
Observed price2026-01-24159
Observed price2026-01-28155
Observed price2026-02-09161
Observed price2026-03-01170
Observed price2026-03-05166
Observed price2026-03-25174
Observed price2026-03-29174
Observed price2026-04-14182
Observed price2026-04-22182
Observed price2026-05-08166
Observed price2026-05-16163
Observed price2026-06-01159
Observed price2026-06-09159
Observed price2026-06-29161
Observed price2026-07-11160
Observed price2026-07-19163
Observed price2026-07-31158
Observed price2026-08-12146
Observed price2026-08-20146
Observed price2026-09-05153
Observed price2026-09-17151
Observed price2026-09-24153
Observed price2026-09-25154
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18153
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18156
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18160
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18157
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18160
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18162
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18167
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18163
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18168
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18172
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18177
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18173
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18177
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18180
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18184
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18180
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18184
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18187
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18191
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18187
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18191

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates on one word from Bern: normalisation. If from a softer franc and triple-digit Brent forces the SNB off 0% during 2027, Valiant's deposit margin re-expands mechanically across a CHF 30bn funding base, and the CHF 15m efficiency programme lands on top rather than being competed away. clears the 7% target, the sub-book discount loses its justification, and the shares re-rate toward while the buyback shrinks the count.

Bear case

The bear case begins with patience running out. If the SNB stays at zero through 2028 as Nomura expects, keeps eroding, cost savings are surrendered into mortgage price competition, and stalls near 5.5%. Add a tariff-driven SME credit normalisation in the industrial cantons and provisions consume the growth. Income investors then discover the dividend is safe but static, the multiple compresses toward 0.75x book, and the shares drift to CHF 130-135.

Current crowd narrative

The settled view, crystallised in UBS's downgrade, is that everything good is already in the price: "operating trend improvements, payout potential priced, NII resilience priced" [6]. Four analysts average CHF 166 with a 126-187 spread [13]. The anchoring bias is the decade-long 5.5% , treated as a permanent ceiling, so the crowd owns Valiant as a and nothing more.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares. The evidence chain: the stock fell from CHF 172.80 in March to CHF 153 in September [15] while reported profit rose, so the de-rating was a valuation event, not an earnings event. The blind spot is asymmetry at the zero bound. Consensus extrapolates 0% policy to 2028 [11][12], yet August CPI accelerated to 0.8% on petroleum and a softer franc [10]. Investors are paid roughly 5% in distributions to hold a free call option on Swiss normalisation.

Convergence catalyst

Watch the SNB's conditional inflation path, not its rate. The first quarterly assessment that abandons the 0% assumption, plausibly December 2026 or during 2027, reframes Valiant as a margin-recovery story. The first observable sign of repricing is an upgraded NII outlook at the February full-year results.

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