Valiant Holding AG (VATN.SIX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+41.9%
Includes 2.53% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is simple: an operationally competent bank trapped in a monetary regimemonetary regimeThe prevailing framework of central-bank policy, interest rates, money creation, and exchange-rate management.View full glossary entry that denies it a decent return on equityreturn on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period.View full glossary entry. Valiant delivers record profits, funds a roughly 5% total distribution from surplus capital, and still trades below book because of 5.6% sits under its cost of equity. The base case assumes no early SNB rescue: book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry per share compounds around 3% annually, buybacks at 0.87x book add a further point of accretion, and the multiple drifts up only modestly as fee income dilutes the rate dependence. Returns arrive mainly through cash, not re-rating.
- book valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities. per share near CHF 175-180 grows roughly 3% yearly on retained earnings plus buyback accretion.
- At 0.90-0.95x book by 2031, that implies a share price around CHF 190-195.
- Cross-check: CHF 6.00-plus dividends annually deliver most of the total return, not price appreciation.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 87.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-19 | 86.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 90.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 92.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 90.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 92.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-22 | 86.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 85.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 87.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-20 | 86.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 93.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 96.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 92.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-14 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-18 | 98.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-06 | 88.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-22 | 96.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-30 | 97.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-23 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-01 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-13 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-02 | 88.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 87.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-18 | 83.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 83.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-08 | 86.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-28 | 84.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 91.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-21 | 89.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 92.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 92.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-18 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 97.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 97.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-09 | 98.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-25 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-07 | 98.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 98.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-04 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-24 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-13 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-25 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 98.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-25 | 95.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-26 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-16 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 96.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-05 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 92.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 91.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 95.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-23 | 95.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-27 | 98.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 96.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-09 | 93.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 97.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-31 | 98.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 94.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-06 | 93.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 93.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-30 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-07 | 96.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-23 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-04 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-12 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-22 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-30 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-05 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-25 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 98.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-10 | 97.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 98.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-07 | 97.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-15 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-27 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 98.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-21 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-10 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-20 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-02 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-10 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-26 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-19 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-09 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-02 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-10 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-14 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-04 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-20 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-13 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-06 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-26 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-20 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-01 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-13 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-19 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-23 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-04 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-28 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-01 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-14 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-22 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-16 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-11 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-19 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-31 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-12 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-20 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-05 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-17 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 154 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 153 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 156 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 160 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 157 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 160 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 162 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 167 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 163 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 168 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 172 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 177 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 173 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 177 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 180 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 184 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 180 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 184 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 187 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 191 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 187 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 191 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates on one word from Bern: normalisation. If imported inflationimported inflationPrice increases driven by external factors like rising oil costs affecting domestic economic stability.View full glossary entry from a softer franc and triple-digit Brent forces the SNB off 0% during 2027, Valiant's deposit margin re-expands mechanically across a CHF 30bn funding base, and the CHF 15m efficiency programme lands on top rather than being competed away. return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. clears the 7% target, the sub-book discount loses its justification, and the shares re-rate toward book valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities. while the buyback shrinks the count.
Bear case
The bear case begins with patience running out. If the SNB stays at zero through 2028 as Nomura expects, net interest incomenet interest incomeIncome a lender earns from interest on assets minus interest paid on funding sources.View full glossary entry keeps eroding, cost savings are surrendered into mortgage price competition, and return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. stalls near 5.5%. Add a tariff-driven SME credit normalisation in the industrial cantons and provisions consume the growth. Income investors then discover the dividend is safe but static, the multiple compresses toward 0.75x book, and the shares drift to CHF 130-135.
Current crowd narrative
The settled view, crystallised in UBS's downgrade, is that everything good is already in the price: "operating trend improvements, payout potential priced, NII resilience priced" [6]. Four analysts average CHF 166 with a 126-187 spread [13]. The anchoring bias is the decade-long 5.5% return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period., treated as a permanent ceiling, so the crowd owns Valiant as a bond proxybond proxyAn equity or other asset valued partly for stable income and therefore often sensitive to changes in bond yields.View full glossary entry and nothing more.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares. The evidence chain: the stock fell from CHF 172.80 in March to CHF 153 in September [15] while reported profit rose, so the de-rating was a valuation event, not an earnings event. The blind spot is asymmetry at the zero bound. Consensus extrapolates 0% policy to 2028 [11][12], yet August CPI accelerated to 0.8% on petroleum and a softer franc [10]. Investors are paid roughly 5% in distributions to hold a free call option on Swiss normalisation.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the SNB's conditional inflation path, not its rate. The first quarterly assessment that abandons the 0% assumption, plausibly December 2026 or during 2027, reframes Valiant as a margin-recovery story. The first observable sign of repricing is an upgraded NII outlook at the February full-year results.
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