The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+48.7%
TTD.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is whether The Trade Desk is losing customers or losing price. The evidence points to price: Amazon undercuts on CTV rates while TTD's joint business plans still grew 38% to 217 clients. That means revenue contracts through 2027, stabilises near $2.7-2.9B as international and audio offset US fee compressionfee compressionDownward pressure on the fees a business can charge because of competition, regulation, bargaining power, or product standardization.View full glossary entry, and margins settle in the high twenties once the 15% headcount cut annualises against data-centre depreciation. Meanwhile the company retires shares at roughly two times book. The investor outcome is driven less by growth returning than by a shrinking share count against a durable, lower-margin cash stream.
- FY2031 scenario: about $3.0B revenue, 28% EBITDA marginebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.View full glossary entry, roughly $450M net income on a reduced base.
- Share count falling from 470M toward 380M supports scenario near $1.18 by 2031.
- At 17-18x plus residual net cash, implied equity value roughly $8-9B versus $6.54B today.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 72.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-23 | 76.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 67.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 71.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 79.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-06 | 75.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-18 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 87.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 80.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 78.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-21 | 59.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-06 | 74.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-26 | 83.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 80.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-03 | 73.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-15 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 66.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-17 | 53.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-25 | 46.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-22 | 45.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-28 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 74.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 71.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 60.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 65.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 57.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 52.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 53.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-09 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-03 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-07 | 48.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-04 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-13 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-17 | 60.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-25 | 55.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 58.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 57.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 61.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-26 | 60.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-30 | 63.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 62.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 68.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-01 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 76.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 88.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-23 | 82.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 90.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-16 | 72.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 80.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-09 | 85.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 75.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 84.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 75.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-08 | 78.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 65.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 66.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 70.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 70.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-18 | 77.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-15 | 65.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-23 | 70.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 68.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 88.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-28 | 85.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 80.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 77.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-27 | 87.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 86.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 79.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-14 | 86.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-18 | 95.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-03 | 94.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 96.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-09 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-13 | 99.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 86.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 84.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-22 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-03 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-17 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-18 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-24 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-14 | 81.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 65.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 60.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-18 | 53.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 46.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-23 | 51.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-01 | 53.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-13 | 79.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-21 | 75.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 71.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 68.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-04 | 74.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-28 | 88.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-05 | 87.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-21 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-29 | 54.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-14 | 45.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 53.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-24 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-01 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 38.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-07 | 39.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-15 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-04 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 36.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-01 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 29.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 22.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-10 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-18 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-04 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-12 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-05 | 19.95 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 19.89 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 18.04 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-11 | 19.62 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-23 | 16.79 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-04 | 19.34 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-12 | 13.49 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-24 | 13.27 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-05 | 14.33 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 14.76 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 12.63 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 12.60 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 13.92 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 14.34 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 13.33 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 13.87 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 14.28 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 15.00 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 14.40 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 15.12 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 15.72 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 16.35 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 16.68 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 17.35 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 16.82 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 17.50 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 18.02 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 18.56 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 18.93 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 19.50 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 19.89 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 20.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 20.7 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates the moment gross platform spend is shown to be growing while only the fee percentage falls. That single disclosure reframes TTD from melting ice cube to price-taker with volume, encouraging a large new buyback authorisation that deploys the 13% free-cash-flow yield into a depressed floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry. Combine that with Google ad-tech remedies redirecting neutral supply-path demand, and both earnings per share and the multiple rise together. Deep-value entry becomes a genuine compounding re-rating.
Bear case
The bear case activates if the Q4 2026 guide, stripped of midterm political dollars, declines worse than the Q3 pace. Then fee compressionDownward pressure on the fees a business can charge because of competition, regulation, bargaining power, or product standardization. and volume loss are confirmed as the same phenomenon, data-centre depreciation locks in a sub-22% ebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue., and the board conserves cash rather than renewing repurchases. Founder dual-class control blocks any external remedy. A shrinking, capital-intensive intermediary earns four to five times EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry, implying a further sharp de-rating from here.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd has converted a growth stock into a corpse. Consensus treats Amazon's DSP displacement as irreversible, the first-ever revenue decline as the beginning rather than the trough, and the S&P 500 deletion as confirmation of terminal impairment [2]. Sell-side has capitulated: HSBC at $10 [5], RBC $15, and a stale $24.24 average nobody defends [31]. The anchoring bias is the $141 peak inverted into permanent decay.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares, though modestly rather than spectacularly. Two pieces of evidence are being ignored. First, the $13.92 anchor is a forced-seller print struck in the September 18 triple-witching deletion auction [26], mechanically worse than a clearing price. Second, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry rose to $860M TTM while GAAP earnings fell, because the pain is take-rate and depreciation, not cash conversion. At 7.3x EV/earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. with $1.5B net cash, the market prices perpetual decline for a business still generating a 13% FCF yieldfcf yieldFree cash flow divided by market value, showing cash generation relative to the asset price.View full glossary entry.
Convergence catalyst
The November 5 Q3 print, and more decisively the February 2027 Q4 guide stripped of midterm political dollars, will separate share loss from fee compressionDownward pressure on the fees a business can charge because of competition, regulation, bargaining power, or product standardization.. A stabilising sequential revenue line plus a fresh buyback authorisation is the trigger. The first observable sign: short interest falling while the stock holds above the deletion low.
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