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TTD.NASDAQ
The Trade Desk
Communication Services · Advertising

Technology platform for buyers of advertising enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns across channels.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for The Trade Desk.

The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is whether The Trade Desk is losing customers or losing price. The evidence points to price: Amazon undercuts on CTV rates while TTD's joint business plans still grew 38% to 217 clients. That means revenue contracts through 2027, stabilises near $2.7-2.9B as international and audio offset US , and margins settle in the high twenties once the 15% headcount cut annualises against data-centre depreciation. Meanwhile the company retires shares at roughly two times book. The investor outcome is driven less by growth returning than by a shrinking share count against a durable, lower-margin cash stream.

  • FY2031 scenario: about $3.0B revenue, 28% , roughly $450M net income on a reduced base.
  • Share count falling from 470M toward 380M supports scenario near $1.18 by 2031.
  • At 17-18x plus residual net cash, implied equity value roughly $8-9B versus $6.54B today.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.0.0837.6375.18112.73150.28Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1572.0
Observed price2021-09-2376.0
Observed price2021-10-0567.2
Observed price2021-10-0971.4
Observed price2021-10-1779.9
Observed price2021-11-0675.7
Observed price2021-11-18108
Observed price2021-11-26104
Observed price2021-12-1687.1
Observed price2021-12-2495.2
Observed price2022-01-0980.0
Observed price2022-01-1378.9
Observed price2022-01-2159.5
Observed price2022-02-0674.8
Observed price2022-02-2683.2
Observed price2022-03-0280.7
Observed price2022-03-1454.6
Observed price2022-04-0373.7
Observed price2022-04-1564.2
Observed price2022-04-1966.9
Observed price2022-05-0945.0
Observed price2022-05-1753.4
Observed price2022-05-2546.3
Observed price2022-06-0652.7
Observed price2022-06-2245.4
Observed price2022-06-3041.9
Observed price2022-07-2048.5
Observed price2022-07-2845.8
Observed price2022-08-1374.3
Observed price2022-08-1771.4
Observed price2022-09-0660.0
Observed price2022-09-1065.9
Observed price2022-09-2657.5
Observed price2022-10-0463.7
Observed price2022-10-1252.6
Observed price2022-10-2853.7
Observed price2022-11-0939.9
Observed price2022-12-0352.7
Observed price2022-12-0748.0
Observed price2022-12-1548.5
Observed price2023-01-0443.3
Observed price2023-01-0843.6
Observed price2023-01-2849.5
Observed price2023-02-1348.6
Observed price2023-02-1760.3
Observed price2023-02-2555.2
Observed price2023-03-1758.4
Observed price2023-03-2157.4
Observed price2023-04-1061.5
Observed price2023-04-2660.0
Observed price2023-04-3063.5
Observed price2023-05-1262.3
Observed price2023-05-2868.6
Observed price2023-06-0172.2
Observed price2023-06-2176.5
Observed price2023-07-0775.5
Observed price2023-07-1588.1
Observed price2023-07-2382.7
Observed price2023-07-3190.2
Observed price2023-08-1672.4
Observed price2023-09-0180.3
Observed price2023-09-0985.4
Observed price2023-09-2575.1
Observed price2023-10-1184.8
Observed price2023-10-1975.9
Observed price2023-11-0878.8
Observed price2023-11-1265.8
Observed price2023-11-1666.3
Observed price2023-12-0270.8
Observed price2023-12-1070.9
Observed price2023-12-1877.0
Observed price2024-01-1565.5
Observed price2024-01-2370.2
Observed price2024-01-3168.4
Observed price2024-02-1688.9
Observed price2024-02-2885.5
Observed price2024-03-1180.7
Observed price2024-03-1577.7
Observed price2024-03-2787.2
Observed price2024-04-0886.7
Observed price2024-04-2079.3
Observed price2024-05-1486.2
Observed price2024-05-1895.3
Observed price2024-06-0394.1
Observed price2024-06-1596.6
Observed price2024-06-2397.7
Observed price2024-07-0999.4
Observed price2024-07-1399.8
Observed price2024-08-0286.6
Observed price2024-08-0684.1
Observed price2024-08-22105
Observed price2024-09-03101
Observed price2024-09-19110
Observed price2024-09-23109
Observed price2024-10-13118
Observed price2024-10-17118
Observed price2024-11-06125
Observed price2024-11-18117
Observed price2024-11-30131
Observed price2024-12-04138
Observed price2024-12-24122
Observed price2025-01-13118
Observed price2025-01-17124
Observed price2025-01-21121
Observed price2025-02-06116
Observed price2025-02-1481.5
Observed price2025-03-0665.0
Observed price2025-03-1060.3
Observed price2025-03-1853.6
Observed price2025-04-0746.3
Observed price2025-04-2351.0
Observed price2025-05-0153.9
Observed price2025-05-1379.3
Observed price2025-05-2175.7
Observed price2025-06-0671.5
Observed price2025-06-1868.7
Observed price2025-07-0474.3
Observed price2025-07-0874.0
Observed price2025-07-2888.5
Observed price2025-08-0587.7
Observed price2025-08-2152.3
Observed price2025-08-2954.7
Observed price2025-09-1445.5
Observed price2025-09-1844.9
Observed price2025-10-0853.8
Observed price2025-10-2454.0
Observed price2025-11-0149.5
Observed price2025-11-0546.6
Observed price2025-11-2138.5
Observed price2025-12-0739.7
Observed price2025-12-1536.2
Observed price2026-01-0438.7
Observed price2026-01-1236.9
Observed price2026-01-1635.5
Observed price2026-02-0527.2
Observed price2026-02-0927.9
Observed price2026-03-0124.4
Observed price2026-03-0529.8
Observed price2026-03-2522.0
Observed price2026-04-1020.8
Observed price2026-04-1822.7
Observed price2026-05-0424.5
Observed price2026-05-1221.0
Observed price2026-06-0123.2
Observed price2026-06-0519.95
Observed price2026-06-0919.89
Observed price2026-06-2518.04
Observed price2026-07-1119.62
Observed price2026-07-2316.79
Observed price2026-08-0419.34
Observed price2026-08-1213.49
Observed price2026-08-2413.27
Observed price2026-09-0514.33
Observed price2026-09-1314.76
Observed price2026-09-2412.63
Observed price2026-09-2512.60
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1813.92
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1814.34
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1813.33
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1813.87
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1814.28
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1815.00
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1814.40
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1815.12
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1815.72
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1816.35
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1816.68
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1817.35
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1816.82
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1817.50
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1818.02
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1818.56
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1818.93
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1819.50
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1819.89
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1820.3
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1820.7

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates the moment gross platform spend is shown to be growing while only the fee percentage falls. That single disclosure reframes TTD from melting ice cube to price-taker with volume, encouraging a large new buyback authorisation that deploys the 13% free-cash-flow yield into a depressed . Combine that with Google ad-tech remedies redirecting neutral supply-path demand, and both and the multiple rise together. Deep-value entry becomes a genuine compounding re-rating.

Bear case

The bear case activates if the Q4 2026 guide, stripped of midterm political dollars, declines worse than the Q3 pace. Then and volume loss are confirmed as the same phenomenon, data-centre depreciation locks in a sub-22% , and the board conserves cash rather than renewing repurchases. Founder dual-class control blocks any external remedy. A shrinking, capital-intensive intermediary earns four to five times , implying a further sharp de-rating from here.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd has converted a growth stock into a corpse. Consensus treats Amazon's DSP displacement as irreversible, the first-ever revenue decline as the beginning rather than the trough, and the S&P 500 deletion as confirmation of terminal impairment [2]. Sell-side has capitulated: HSBC at $10 [5], RBC $15, and a stale $24.24 average nobody defends [31]. The anchoring bias is the $141 peak inverted into permanent decay.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates these shares, though modestly rather than spectacularly. Two pieces of evidence are being ignored. First, the $13.92 anchor is a forced-seller print struck in the September 18 triple-witching deletion auction [26], mechanically worse than a clearing price. Second, rose to $860M TTM while GAAP earnings fell, because the pain is take-rate and depreciation, not cash conversion. At 7.3x EV/ with $1.5B net cash, the market prices perpetual decline for a business still generating a 13% .

Convergence catalyst

The November 5 Q3 print, and more decisively the February 2027 Q4 guide stripped of midterm political dollars, will separate share loss from . A stabilising sequential revenue line plus a fresh buyback authorisation is the trigger. The first observable sign: short interest falling while the stock holds above the deletion low.

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