The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+58.6%
Includes 0.97% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that a structurally advantaged buyer of other people's mistakes was itself caught making one, precisely when a 5% ten-year Treasury stripped away its premium multiple. Both shocks are real; only one is permanent. Base case: Marmaxx repairs its mix over two to three quarters rather than one, consolidated comps settle at 2-3%, adjusted EPS compounds from roughly $5.18 in FY27 toward the mid-$8 range by FY32 on margin stability, 4% unit growth and a share count shrinking about 2% annually. The multiple does not return to 31x; it stabilises near 23x.
- Adjusted base of $5.15-$5.20 for FY27, not the $5.43 supplied TTM figure inflated by tariff refunds.
- Roughly 23x a mid-$8 FY32 implies a share price near $190 by September 2031.
- Cross-check: $5.88bn TTM free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry against $142bn market capitalisation gives a 4.1% starting yield.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 69.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-22 | 70.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 64.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 63.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-31 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-18 | 72.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 69.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 68.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-22 | 74.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-31 | 75.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-17 | 69.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-30 | 72.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-12 | 68.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 65.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-10 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-23 | 60.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-28 | 63.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-10 | 61.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-18 | 66.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-27 | 64.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-01 | 63.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-18 | 57.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 57.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-18 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 60.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 65.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 66.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-31 | 63.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-13 | 66.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 61.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-30 | 71.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-08 | 70.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-25 | 80.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-30 | 79.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-08 | 78.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-25 | 78.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 82.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 82.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-07 | 79.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-15 | 80.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 74.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 74.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-04 | 78.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-08 | 78.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 77.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-13 | 79.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-26 | 76.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-30 | 76.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 81.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 82.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-17 | 85.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-26 | 86.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-03 | 85.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-16 | 88.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-29 | 92.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-11 | 92.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 88.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-16 | 90.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-29 | 88.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-07 | 90.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 89.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-28 | 88.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 91.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-24 | 92.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-15 | 94.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 94.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-10 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-27 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-07 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 97.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-29 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-06 | 96.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-15 | 92.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 95.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-24 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-28 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-02 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-15 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-14 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-01 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-27 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-31 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-22 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-18 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-26 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-08 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-12 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-14 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-01 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-05 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-05 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-27 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-14 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-18 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-09 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-17 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-04 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-30 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-21 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-03 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-25 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-12 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-29 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-11 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-18 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-31 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-13 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-26 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-22 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 167 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-12 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-17 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-12 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-15 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 127 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 131 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 126 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 132 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 136 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 142 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 143 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 147 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 150 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 155 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 156 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 161 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 164 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 169 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 171 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 174 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 178 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 183 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 185 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 188 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 192 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when execution repair and a rate peak arrive together. A Marmaxx comp back above 3% by the November 2026 print restores confidence in the buying organisation; a credible Fed pause in 2027 then lifts the multiple investors will pay for defensive cash flows. Add a recessionary closeout glut and gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry expands while trade-down traffic accelerates, so comps, margin and multiple move in the same direction. Compounding buybacks amplify each point of operating improvement into .
Bear case
The bear case activates if the 1% Marmaxx comp proves to be share loss rather than a mix error. Weak holiday trading forces markdowns, gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. gives back its 70bps of adjusted expansion, and management accelerates unit growth into that weakness, converting lease and payroll costs into fixed drag. With Brent above $100 lifting freight and the tariff windfall lapsing, FY28 goes flat, and the market applies a 18-19x cyclical retailer multiple instead of a compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry's rating.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats one bad quarter at Marmaxx as a permanent share transfer to Ross. Eighteen analysts still rate the shares Buy with an average target near $171, yet the stock sits at a 52-week low of about $125 while the S&P 500 hovers near highs. The anchoring bias is the old 31-36x multiple: everyone argues about earnings when the bond market repriced the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares, but only modestly. Two independent shocks arrived together and the market conflated them: a controllable merchandising error in one division and a structural move in the discount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value. from a 5% ten-year yield. The evidence points to a genuine de-rating, not a broken flywheel, since HomeGoods, Canada and International all comped 6-7% and adjusted gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. still expanded 70bps. At 23-24x adjusted the mispricing is real but bounded; the pre-2026 is not coming back while real yieldsreal yieldsReal yields are inflation-adjusted returns on fixed-income instruments, showing the purchasing-power gain or loss after accounting for inflation.View full glossary entry stay elevated.
Convergence catalyst
The mid-to-late November 2026 Q3 FY27 print is the decisive test. A Marmaxx comp of 3% or better, with gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. held ex-refund, converts the share-loss story back into an execution story. The first observable sign is buy-side dispersion narrowing as downside targets near $140 are withdrawn.
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