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SMCI.NASDAQ
Super Micro Computer
Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.MoreShow less
HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Super Micro Computer.

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Supermicro sells genuine revenue at borrowed margin. FY2026 delivered $39.1B and $3.26 GAAP [7], and management guides FY2027 to $65-72B against a $54.4B consensus [10]. The central tension is arithmetic rather than narrative: converts into revenue faster than revenue converts into per-share cash. A $7.0B equity and mandatory-convertible package [17][18] funds a $12.9B inventory book [16], and 114-136M shares arrive by June 2029. Base case: earnings compound respectably, the share count chases them, the multiple stays low, and the quoted price grinds upward with violent quarterly dispersion rather than re-rating cleanly.

  • FY2027 consensus near $4.34 [30] on roughly 760M shares prices the stock at about nine times forward.
  • A durable 10-11x multiple on normalized $4.50-5.00 per share supports roughly $50 by 2031.
  • At $27.3B against guided $68B sales, 0.4x revenue already embeds thin, cyclical assembly economics.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-7.826.0559.8993.74127.58Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-163.64
Observed price2021-09-203.63
Observed price2021-09-283.73
Observed price2021-10-103.64
Observed price2021-10-183.50
Observed price2021-11-074.57
Observed price2021-11-234.18
Observed price2021-11-274.07
Observed price2021-12-094.33
Observed price2021-12-214.19
Observed price2021-12-294.55
Observed price2022-01-144.56
Observed price2022-01-263.91
Observed price2022-02-073.84
Observed price2022-02-274.00
Observed price2022-03-074.04
Observed price2022-03-194.25
Observed price2022-03-274.22
Observed price2022-04-123.48
Observed price2022-04-284.19
Observed price2022-05-065.21
Observed price2022-05-264.91
Observed price2022-06-035.48
Observed price2022-06-075.62
Observed price2022-06-274.20
Observed price2022-07-053.90
Observed price2022-07-215.16
Observed price2022-07-255.25
Observed price2022-08-146.57
Observed price2022-08-187.20
Observed price2022-09-036.26
Observed price2022-09-116.62
Observed price2022-09-235.37
Observed price2022-10-135.32
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Observed price2022-10-296.95
Observed price2022-11-188.62
Observed price2022-11-269.20
Observed price2022-12-088.56
Observed price2022-12-208.33
Observed price2023-01-058.03
Observed price2023-01-098.48
Observed price2023-01-297.32
Observed price2023-02-028.20
Observed price2023-02-149.18
Observed price2023-03-029.84
Observed price2023-03-149.25
Observed price2023-03-3010.33
Observed price2023-04-0311.27
Observed price2023-04-2710.02
Observed price2023-05-0513.65
Observed price2023-05-0913.55
Observed price2023-05-2922.2
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Observed price2023-08-0926.6
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Observed price2023-09-1027.5
Observed price2023-09-2223.6
Observed price2023-10-1229.7
Observed price2023-10-2026.3
Observed price2023-10-2824.1
Observed price2023-11-1328.7
Observed price2023-11-2129.6
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Observed price2023-12-1126.2
Observed price2023-12-1931.6
Observed price2024-01-0428.9
Observed price2024-01-2446.6
Observed price2024-01-2849.1
Observed price2024-02-1382.7
Observed price2024-02-2173.4
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Observed price2024-03-2089.6
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Observed price2024-05-0377.9
Observed price2024-05-1990.4
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Observed price2024-06-2091.0
Observed price2024-07-0283.0
Observed price2024-07-1489.3
Observed price2024-08-0364.1
Observed price2024-08-0749.3
Observed price2024-08-1562.7
Observed price2024-09-0841.1
Observed price2024-09-1245.1
Observed price2024-10-0241.0
Observed price2024-10-1447.8
Observed price2024-10-2647.7
Observed price2024-11-0723.6
Observed price2024-11-1518.89
Observed price2024-12-0136.4
Observed price2024-12-0944.2
Observed price2024-12-2131.8
Observed price2025-01-0230.1
Observed price2025-01-0636.5
Observed price2025-02-0326.9
Observed price2025-02-1138.6
Observed price2025-02-1957.5
Observed price2025-03-0737.0
Observed price2025-03-1541.1
Observed price2025-03-3134.9
Observed price2025-04-2030.9
Observed price2025-04-2435.8
Observed price2025-05-1032.8
Observed price2025-05-1445.0
Observed price2025-05-3041.2
Observed price2025-06-1143.1
Observed price2025-06-2340.9
Observed price2025-07-0548.8
Observed price2025-07-0949.7
Observed price2025-07-2960.4
Observed price2025-08-0256.8
Observed price2025-08-2242.8
Observed price2025-09-0340.1
Observed price2025-09-1545.4
Observed price2025-09-1945.8
Observed price2025-10-0958.0
Observed price2025-10-2154.8
Observed price2025-11-0249.7
Observed price2025-11-0640.3
Observed price2025-11-2232.4
Observed price2025-12-0834.9
Observed price2025-12-1630.6
Observed price2025-12-2430.7
Observed price2026-01-1329.2
Observed price2026-02-0229.7
Observed price2026-02-0634.4
Observed price2026-02-1033.3
Observed price2026-02-1430.3
Observed price2026-03-0632.2
Observed price2026-03-2623.0
Observed price2026-03-3022.6
Observed price2026-04-1928.5
Observed price2026-04-2326.8
Observed price2026-05-0933.6
Observed price2026-05-1730.8
Observed price2026-06-0247.2
Observed price2026-06-1036.3
Observed price2026-06-1829.3
Observed price2026-07-2023.8
Observed price2026-07-2430.1
Observed price2026-07-2828.4
Observed price2026-08-1339.2
Observed price2026-09-0237.0
Observed price2026-09-0639.9
Observed price2026-09-1436.7
Observed price2026-09-2241.5
Observed price2026-09-2543.3
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1839.1
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1841.4
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1838.1
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1841.9
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1843.6
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1839.2
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1841.6
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1843.3
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1838.1
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1841.1
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1842.4
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1839.8
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1842.6
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1844.3
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1840.8
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1843.2
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1845.4
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1846.7
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1848.6
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1850.1
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1852.1

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when cash flow turns positive while revenue still compounds. If DLC mix genuinely holds near 14% and inventory-to-sales normalizes, flips positive during FY2027, removing the need for further issuance. That single change breaks the reflexive loop — no means reaches shareholders, which invites from nine to thirteen times, which lowers the cost of any remaining capital. Compounding earnings on a stable share count produces materially higher per-share value.

Bear case

The bear case begins with a customer, not a competitor. If tightening credit strands leveraged neocloud buyers during 2027-2028, deliveries slip and Supermicro is left financing $12.9B of depreciating GPU inventory bought at peak memory prices. Write-downs turn a 5% net margin negative, covenant and funding pressure forces issuance at depressed prices, and the mandatory conversion lands into a falling share count denominator. Thin-margin assembly offers no buffer; the equity absorbs the entire cyclical shock.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd has filed SMCI under "cheap for a reason." Nineteen analysts rate it Hold with a $42.38 target barely 8% above spot [4], and the stock sits range-bound between $35 and $40 [4] at roughly 12x trailing and 9x . The settled belief: revenue is real, margins are borrowed, and every good quarter gets diluted away. Anchoring runs on the June equity raise, not the $65-72B guide.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd slightly underestimates near-term earnings power while correctly pricing the structure. A company guiding FY2027 revenue up 66% and carrying more than $60B of orders [6][10] trades at roughly 0.7x sales — a multiple normally reserved for shrinking businesses [11]. Yet the discount is not irrational: negative $6.97B and 114-136M mandatory-convertible shares landing by June 2029 [18] mean earnings compound into a rising denominator. The mispricing is modest and conditional, not a deep-value anomaly.

Convergence catalyst

The February 2027 second-quarter report is the hinge. A second consecutive above 13% paired with positive would kill the inventory-holding-gain explanation and force upgrades. First observable sign of repricing: falling short interest and target revisions above $50 within weeks.

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