STMicroelectronics N.V. (STMPA.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+54.4%
Includes 1.08% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that ST is winning the revenue argument while losing the margin argument. Bookings, distributor inventory below target and a datacenter ambition raised twice in six months confirm the cycle has turned [2][8]. But management declined to affirm 40% gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry at the very $4bn quarter its own framework promised [9], and reshaping charges, China fab unloading and wafer-transition friction explain why. Base case: revenue reaches roughly $18bn around 2028, operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry lands near 19% rather than 22–24%, and a 2028–2029 optical digestion pause interrupts the ascent before compounding resumes.
- FY2026 revenue tracks near $14.3bn versus $11.80bn in 2025, exiting above a $16bn annualised run-rate.
- At €43.50 the market capitalises roughly 18x an estimated 2028 EPS of about €2.40.
- Cross-check: $18bn at 19% operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. implies about $2.7bn net against today's ~$46bn capitalisation.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-04 | 36.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-12 | 35.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 41.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-17 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-03 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-07 | 44.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 41.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 43.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-16 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-24 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-09 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-05 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 38.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-29 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-22 | 35.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-16 | 37.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-24 | 35.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-25 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-03 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-19 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-23 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-04 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-01 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 36.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-31 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-24 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-06 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-26 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 35.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 42.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 43.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-16 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-08 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-17 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 38.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-11 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-23 | 41.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 40.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-16 | 45.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-06 | 43.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-19 | 42.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-31 | 43.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 40.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 42.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-18 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-26 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-30 | 35.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-23 | 41.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-05 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 44.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-17 | 46.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-02 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 39.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-03 | 40.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-11 | 42.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 43.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-14 | 42.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-11 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-17 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-29 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-10 | 41.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-18 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-26 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-09 | 26.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-21 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-02 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-22 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-28 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-05 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-21 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-08 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-05 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-13 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-21 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 19.18 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 17.13 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-01 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-21 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-19 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-08 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-28 | 23.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-09 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-04 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 18.93 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-28 | 19.78 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-14 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-27 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-24 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-16 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-28 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 50.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-19 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 66.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-20 | 68.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 63.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-06 | 63.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-18 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-03 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 48.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-23 | 42.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 42.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 45.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 43.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 46.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 47.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 50.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 49.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 52.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 54.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 50.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 48.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 49.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 51.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 53.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 52.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 54.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 57.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 58.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 56.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 58.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 60.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 62.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 63.6 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. clears 40% at $4bn quarterly revenue and datacenter optics compounds past the $2bn 2027 ambition. Those two conditions reinforce: accretive optical mix lifts group margin, which validates the $18bn/22–24% model, which in turn re-rates ST from cyclical analog multiple toward AI-infrastructure multipleinfrastructure multipleA valuation multiple associated with infrastructure-like businesses that have stable, utility-style cash flows.View full glossary entry. Capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry intensity falls simultaneously, turning a negative 2025 free-cash-flow margin into 20% generation and funding buybacks against 928m shares. The equity roughly doubles.
Bear case
The bear case activates if the book-to-bill above two proves inflated by duplicate orders just as 300mm depreciation steps up. Fab underloading would then collide with Chinese SiC price erosion and persistent reshaping charges, driving gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. back below 36% while the $3.8bn operating-expense base stays fixed. Management's reconfirmed 2028 model would require a public reset, collapsing both earnings and the multiple investors pay for them — and euro translation of a weakening dollar stream compounds the loss for Paris holders.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that the trough is behind and AI optics is ST's second act: shares rose roughly 121% in 2026 before Q2 [4], and sell-side targets cluster far above spot, with Citi at €65 and Equita at €63 [17][18]. The anchoring bias is the $18bn 2028 model, treated as arithmetic rather than a conditional ambition contingent on unfinished wafer transitions.
Alpha-gap assessment
Marginal underpricing of earnings power, offset by overconfidence in margin. The crowd fixates on a trailing P/E near 98, a trough artifact: Q1–Q2 2026 actuals of $6.59bn plus the $3.70bn guide and a Q4 above $4bn imply roughly $14.3bn for 2026 and a $16bn-plus exit run-rate [3][5]. That is genuinely overlooked. But the same crowd capitalises a 22–24% operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. that management declined to affirm at the very revenue level its own framework promised [9]. Net: modestly cheap on revenue, fully priced on profitability.
Convergence catalyst
The January 2027 fourth-quarter print is the hinge. It simultaneously reveals the first $4bn-plus quarter and whether gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. clears 40% net of China unloading charges. First observable sign of repricing: guidance for Q1 2027 above 39%, which would validate the mix-accretion claim.
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