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STMPA.PAR
STMicroelectronics
Information Technology · Semiconductors
STMicroelectronics N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.MoreShow less
HQ: NetherlandsListed: France

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for STMicroelectronics.

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STMPA.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that ST is winning the revenue argument while losing the margin argument. Bookings, distributor inventory below target and a datacenter ambition raised twice in six months confirm the cycle has turned [2][8]. But management declined to affirm 40% at the very $4bn quarter its own framework promised [9], and reshaping charges, China fab unloading and wafer-transition friction explain why. Base case: revenue reaches roughly $18bn around 2028, lands near 19% rather than 22–24%, and a 2028–2029 optical digestion pause interrupts the ascent before compounding resumes.

  • FY2026 revenue tracks near $14.3bn versus $11.80bn in 2025, exiting above a $16bn annualised run-rate.
  • At €43.50 the market capitalises roughly 18x an estimated 2028 of about €2.40.
  • Cross-check: $18bn at 19% implies about $2.7bn net against today's ~$46bn capitalisation.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.1227.3942.7758.1573.54Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-09-1439.5
Observed price2021-10-0436.1
Observed price2021-10-1235.4
Observed price2021-10-2841.3
Observed price2021-11-0141.1
Observed price2021-11-1745.7
Observed price2021-12-0341.9
Observed price2021-12-0744.4
Observed price2021-12-1941.6
Observed price2021-12-2743.9
Observed price2022-01-1642.8
Observed price2022-01-2438.7
Observed price2022-02-0940.9
Observed price2022-02-2137.6
Observed price2022-03-0535.0
Observed price2022-03-2138.8
Observed price2022-03-2941.4
Observed price2022-04-1434.2
Observed price2022-04-2235.3
Observed price2022-05-0834.1
Observed price2022-05-1637.1
Observed price2022-05-2435.6
Observed price2022-06-0536.8
Observed price2022-06-2531.5
Observed price2022-07-0328.5
Observed price2022-07-1933.0
Observed price2022-07-2334.1
Observed price2022-08-0438.6
Observed price2022-08-1637.6
Observed price2022-09-0134.2
Observed price2022-09-0936.9
Observed price2022-09-2931.8
Observed price2022-10-1132.0
Observed price2022-10-2334.2
Observed price2022-10-3131.6
Observed price2022-11-1636.7
Observed price2022-11-2437.4
Observed price2022-12-0636.2
Observed price2022-12-1437.2
Observed price2022-12-2633.4
Observed price2023-01-0735.9
Observed price2023-01-2742.9
Observed price2023-01-3143.9
Observed price2023-02-1646.0
Observed price2023-03-0846.0
Observed price2023-03-1644.8
Observed price2023-03-2045.7
Observed price2023-04-0148.6
Observed price2023-04-1746.0
Observed price2023-05-0338.5
Observed price2023-05-1138.3
Observed price2023-05-2341.5
Observed price2023-05-3140.6
Observed price2023-06-1645.6
Observed price2023-07-0643.0
Observed price2023-07-1447.3
Observed price2023-07-3048.5
Observed price2023-08-0745.0
Observed price2023-08-1942.4
Observed price2023-08-3143.7
Observed price2023-09-0443.5
Observed price2023-09-2440.0
Observed price2023-10-1042.7
Observed price2023-10-1839.9
Observed price2023-10-2639.0
Observed price2023-10-3035.3
Observed price2023-11-2341.6
Observed price2023-12-0544.0
Observed price2023-12-0944.2
Observed price2023-12-1746.3
Observed price2024-01-0243.5
Observed price2024-01-1839.7
Observed price2024-02-0340.4
Observed price2024-02-1142.9
Observed price2024-02-1941.4
Observed price2024-03-1043.8
Observed price2024-03-1442.4
Observed price2024-04-0339.2
Observed price2024-04-1139.2
Observed price2024-04-1937.4
Observed price2024-05-0137.5
Observed price2024-05-1738.3
Observed price2024-05-2937.5
Observed price2024-06-1041.2
Observed price2024-06-1840.1
Observed price2024-06-2636.8
Observed price2024-07-1239.5
Observed price2024-08-0129.6
Observed price2024-08-0926.7
Observed price2024-08-2128.1
Observed price2024-09-0228.7
Observed price2024-09-1425.1
Observed price2024-09-2224.9
Observed price2024-09-3026.6
Observed price2024-10-2826.3
Observed price2024-11-0524.5
Observed price2024-11-0925.1
Observed price2024-11-2123.1
Observed price2024-12-0725.1
Observed price2024-12-1923.6
Observed price2025-01-0825.1
Observed price2025-01-1223.7
Observed price2025-01-2024.7
Observed price2025-02-0521.6
Observed price2025-02-1322.8
Observed price2025-02-2126.4
Observed price2025-03-0923.5
Observed price2025-03-2920.4
Observed price2025-04-0219.18
Observed price2025-04-1017.13
Observed price2025-04-3020.3
Observed price2025-05-1623.1
Observed price2025-06-0122.3
Observed price2025-06-0925.8
Observed price2025-06-2124.9
Observed price2025-07-0327.4
Observed price2025-07-1928.0
Observed price2025-07-2722.6
Observed price2025-07-3122.4
Observed price2025-08-0821.8
Observed price2025-08-2823.8
Observed price2025-09-0922.3
Observed price2025-09-1723.1
Observed price2025-10-0324.8
Observed price2025-10-1925.7
Observed price2025-10-3121.3
Observed price2025-11-0420.8
Observed price2025-11-2018.93
Observed price2025-11-2819.78
Observed price2025-12-1422.4
Observed price2025-12-2222.1
Observed price2026-01-0724.5
Observed price2026-01-1923.7
Observed price2026-01-2724.5
Observed price2026-02-0826.6
Observed price2026-02-2428.7
Observed price2026-03-1629.1
Observed price2026-03-2026.9
Observed price2026-03-2828.5
Observed price2026-04-1735.5
Observed price2026-04-2137.4
Observed price2026-05-1150.3
Observed price2026-05-1952.1
Observed price2026-06-0466.7
Observed price2026-06-2068.4
Observed price2026-06-2463.4
Observed price2026-07-0663.4
Observed price2026-07-1854.2
Observed price2026-08-0345.3
Observed price2026-08-0748.3
Observed price2026-08-2342.5
Observed price2026-09-0845.0
Observed price2026-09-1642.6
Observed price2026-09-2246.6
Observed price2026-09-2545.1
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1843.5
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1846.1
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1847.4
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1850.8
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1849.2
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1852.2
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1854.3
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1850.5
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1848.0
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1849.4
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1851.9
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1853.9
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1852.3
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1854.9
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1857.1
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1858.8
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1856.5
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1858.8
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1860.5
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1862.3
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1863.6

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when clears 40% at $4bn quarterly revenue and datacenter optics compounds past the $2bn 2027 ambition. Those two conditions reinforce: accretive optical mix lifts group margin, which validates the $18bn/22–24% model, which in turn re-rates ST from cyclical analog multiple toward AI-. intensity falls simultaneously, turning a negative 2025 free-cash-flow margin into 20% generation and funding buybacks against 928m shares. The equity roughly doubles.

Bear case

The bear case activates if the book-to-bill above two proves inflated by duplicate orders just as 300mm depreciation steps up. Fab underloading would then collide with Chinese SiC price erosion and persistent reshaping charges, driving back below 36% while the $3.8bn operating-expense base stays fixed. Management's reconfirmed 2028 model would require a public reset, collapsing both earnings and the multiple investors pay for them — and euro translation of a weakening dollar stream compounds the loss for Paris holders.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that the trough is behind and AI optics is ST's second act: shares rose roughly 121% in 2026 before Q2 [4], and sell-side targets cluster far above spot, with Citi at €65 and Equita at €63 [17][18]. The anchoring bias is the $18bn 2028 model, treated as arithmetic rather than a conditional ambition contingent on unfinished wafer transitions.

Alpha-gap assessment

Marginal underpricing of earnings power, offset by overconfidence in margin. The crowd fixates on a trailing P/E near 98, a trough artifact: Q1–Q2 2026 actuals of $6.59bn plus the $3.70bn guide and a Q4 above $4bn imply roughly $14.3bn for 2026 and a $16bn-plus exit run-rate [3][5]. That is genuinely overlooked. But the same crowd capitalises a 22–24% that management declined to affirm at the very revenue level its own framework promised [9]. Net: modestly cheap on revenue, fully priced on profitability.

Convergence catalyst

The January 2027 fourth-quarter print is the hinge. It simultaneously reveals the first $4bn-plus quarter and whether clears 40% net of China unloading charges. First observable sign of repricing: guidance for Q1 2027 above 39%, which would validate the mix-accretion claim.

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