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SBUX.NASDAQ
Starbucks
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants

Specialty coffee roaster, marketer, and retailer operating cafes, packaged coffee products, and beverage platforms worldwide.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Starbucks.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Starbucks is mid-metamorphosis: from consolidated retailer into brand-and-royalty , with 67% of 41,304 stores licensed and China's roughly 8,000 units handed to a Boyu-run licensee [1][6]. The operating evidence is genuinely favorable — four straight quarters of comps, transactions up 4.2% — but the celebrated margin print borrowed from a one-off customs refund [4]. The base case therefore assumes earnings rebuild steadily toward $5 per share by FY2031 as coffee surplus relieves , while the compresses from roughly 37x toward the high twenties. Price advances; delivered profit, not re-rating, does the work.

  • FY26 guided non-GAAP of $2.55–$2.65 rebuilds toward roughly $5.00 by FY2031 on comp-led leverage.
  • At about 28x that figure, shares approach $143, near 50% above the $95.80 anchor.
  • Cross-check: $163bn equity plus $16bn on $9bn implies 20x, below today's 21.9x.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.63.6385.39107.15128.91150.67Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-17113
Observed price2021-09-25114
Observed price2021-10-03112
Observed price2021-10-23115
Observed price2021-10-31109
Observed price2021-11-08115
Observed price2021-11-12112
Observed price2021-12-10115
Observed price2021-12-18109
Observed price2022-01-03117
Observed price2022-01-11104
Observed price2022-01-15101
Observed price2022-02-0495.8
Observed price2022-02-0896.2
Observed price2022-02-2491.0
Observed price2022-03-0490.0
Observed price2022-03-1283.2
Observed price2022-04-0191.5
Observed price2022-04-1779.9
Observed price2022-04-2179.0
Observed price2022-05-1170.9
Observed price2022-05-1571.8
Observed price2022-06-0479.2
Observed price2022-06-0878.5
Observed price2022-06-1671.0
Observed price2022-07-1478.2
Observed price2022-07-2283.6
Observed price2022-07-2680.3
Observed price2022-08-1589.2
Observed price2022-08-3184.1
Observed price2022-09-0888.5
Observed price2022-09-1692.2
Observed price2022-09-2484.2
Observed price2022-10-1489.3
Observed price2022-10-2685.2
Observed price2022-10-3086.3
Observed price2022-11-1998.1
Observed price2022-11-2398.8
Observed price2022-12-05104
Observed price2022-12-2598.4
Observed price2023-01-06107
Observed price2023-01-18106
Observed price2023-01-30109
Observed price2023-02-03108
Observed price2023-02-23104
Observed price2023-03-03105
Observed price2023-03-1599.3
Observed price2023-03-2398.4
Observed price2023-04-12106
Observed price2023-04-28113
Observed price2023-05-06107
Observed price2023-05-14106
Observed price2023-05-3097.8
Observed price2023-06-0797.9
Observed price2023-06-15101
Observed price2023-07-0998.1
Observed price2023-07-13102
Observed price2023-07-25103
Observed price2023-08-06101
Observed price2023-08-14101
Observed price2023-08-2695.9
Observed price2023-09-1597.1
Observed price2023-09-2791.5
Observed price2023-10-0191.1
Observed price2023-10-2194.3
Observed price2023-10-2993.0
Observed price2023-11-14105
Observed price2023-11-18105
Observed price2023-12-0896.6
Observed price2023-12-1298.2
Observed price2024-01-0194.3
Observed price2024-01-2193.1
Observed price2024-01-2592.4
Observed price2024-02-0293.2
Observed price2024-02-1096.4
Observed price2024-02-2295.8
Observed price2024-03-0591.2
Observed price2024-03-2191.7
Observed price2024-04-0686.9
Observed price2024-04-2688.0
Observed price2024-04-3081.4
Observed price2024-05-0473.0
Observed price2024-05-2478.1
Observed price2024-05-2877.5
Observed price2024-06-1781.3
Observed price2024-06-2179.7
Observed price2024-07-1173.3
Observed price2024-07-1572.8
Observed price2024-07-1979.3
Observed price2024-08-0875.8
Observed price2024-08-2895.3
Observed price2024-09-0591.7
Observed price2024-09-1398.5
Observed price2024-09-2997.5
Observed price2024-10-1194.1
Observed price2024-10-1996.8
Observed price2024-10-3198.1
Observed price2024-11-1698.4
Observed price2024-12-02102
Observed price2024-12-06100
Observed price2024-12-2288.9
Observed price2024-12-3091.5
Observed price2025-01-1996.6
Observed price2025-01-2398.0
Observed price2025-02-12113
Observed price2025-02-28115
Observed price2025-03-08105
Observed price2025-03-2496.2
Observed price2025-04-0198.8
Observed price2025-04-1385.3
Observed price2025-04-2180.7
Observed price2025-05-0381.8
Observed price2025-05-1587.3
Observed price2025-05-2384.4
Observed price2025-06-1294.3
Observed price2025-06-2491.5
Observed price2025-07-0294.2
Observed price2025-07-1095.1
Observed price2025-07-3091.1
Observed price2025-08-1193.1
Observed price2025-08-2387.9
Observed price2025-08-3189.1
Observed price2025-09-1281.9
Observed price2025-10-0286.7
Observed price2025-10-1078.5
Observed price2025-10-2685.8
Observed price2025-11-0381.0
Observed price2025-11-1983.7
Observed price2025-11-2786.7
Observed price2025-12-0983.6
Observed price2025-12-1787.3
Observed price2025-12-2584.8
Observed price2026-01-1491.9
Observed price2026-01-3092.0
Observed price2026-02-0797.5
Observed price2026-02-1199.1
Observed price2026-02-1594.6
Observed price2026-03-11100
Observed price2026-03-2790.1
Observed price2026-03-3188.6
Observed price2026-04-2099.0
Observed price2026-04-2897.3
Observed price2026-05-06106
Observed price2026-05-18107
Observed price2026-06-0794.6
Observed price2026-06-19101
Observed price2026-06-27104
Observed price2026-07-05103
Observed price2026-07-13107
Observed price2026-08-02104
Observed price2026-08-14108
Observed price2026-08-26108
Observed price2026-09-1198.7
Observed price2026-09-1596.6
Observed price2026-09-2493.7
Observed price2026-09-2594.9
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1895.8
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1899.7
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18103
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18105
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18103
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18107
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18110
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18112
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18114
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18118
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18120
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18117
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18120
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18124
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18126
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18129
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18131
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18135
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18138
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18141
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18143

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when cheap coffee and recovering traffic arrive in the same fiscal year. A persistent 10-million-bag surplus rolls through hedges into FY2028 just as transaction growth holds mid-single-digit, pushing non-GAAP past 17% and beyond $5.50. from China and a possible Japan monetization then restarts buybacks, shrinking the share count into rising profit. Consensus upgrades from Hold follow, and the multiple holds near 30x rather than compressing.

Bear case

The bear case starts the moment the refund-flattered margin meets an honest comparison. FY27 guidance disappoints, comps decelerate toward flat under a 4% policy rate and $100 Brent, and a ratified $17 wage floor institutionalizes 200–300bps of labor cost. With negative equity, 3.2x leverage and a dividend already exceeding , management cannot buy back stock to defend the print. A high-thirties multiple on stagnant earnings collapses toward the low twenties.

Current crowd narrative

The market treats the turnaround as settled fact: four consecutive quarters of comps, guidance raised to $2.55–$2.65, China de-risked into a Boyu royalty. Consensus target near $109–112 across 47 analysts, mostly Hold [17][18]. The anchoring bias is Q3's headline 14.4% non-GAAP margin, which the crowd extrapolates while ignoring that one-off tariff refunds sit inside it.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd mildly overestimates near-term earnings quality while underestimating the durability of the royalty annuity — two errors that largely cancel, leaving shares close to fair rather than obviously mispriced. The overlooked evidence is the 370bp gap between GAAP and non-GAAP in Q3 FY26, funded by IEEPA customs refunds that cannot repeat [4]. Pricing consequence: FY27 consensus is probably too high, FY2030 too low, and the multiple, not the model, carries the risk.

Convergence catalyst

The Q4 FY26 release in late October, with first FY27 guidance, is the trigger. It forces the tariff-refund distortion into the open and reveals the clean run-rate margin. First observable sign of repricing: guided FY27 non-GAAP margin below 12.5% despite continued comp growth.

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