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The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

14 AI Advisor Reports

Select an advisor report.

SynthesizerCombines all advisor views

Synthesis of 14 independent opinions

Diversity of ModelsSame approach, varied models

Diversity of FrameworksDifferent investing styles

AI Researcher

Opus 5

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath Framework

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+65.9%

Includes 0.68% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Sherwin's two problems share one cause. Brent near $104 inflates resins and simultaneously keeps the 10-year near 5%, which freezes the home transactions that drive repaint volume. Energy normalisation therefore fixes both, but not at the same speed: costs relieve within quarters, housing within years. The base case assumes price discipline holds, gross margin troughs in 2027 and recovers through 2029, volumes improve only modestly, and roughly 3% of shares retire annually. Investors are paid low-double-digit EPS growth on a multiple that has already de-rated from 33.7x to 29.5x trailing, with little further compression assumed.

FY2026 adjusted guidance of $11.80-$12.20 compounding near 10% annually implies roughly $18-19 by 2031.
At a 26-27x exit multiple, that supports a share price near $515, below today's de-rated rating.
Cross-check: $79.3bn market cap on $3.21bn TTM free cash flow; fewer shares magnify per-share cash.

Historical prices and published forecast

Observed price
Published advisor forecast

Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.

View chart values

Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
Series	Date	Value (USD)
Observed price	2021-09-17	294
Observed price	2021-09-30	280
Observed price	2021-10-13	290
Observed price	2021-10-26	316
Observed price	2021-11-08	321
Observed price	2021-11-16	337
Observed price	2021-12-12	346
Observed price	2021-12-21	336
Observed price	2021-12-30	350
Observed price	2022-01-20	293
Observed price	2022-01-25	293
Observed price	2022-02-15	273
Observed price	2022-02-24	267
Observed price	2022-03-09	238
Observed price	2022-03-22	248
Observed price	2022-04-08	263
Observed price	2022-04-21	245
Observed price	2022-05-04	277
Observed price	2022-05-13	272
Observed price	2022-05-22	259
Observed price	2022-06-04	272
Observed price	2022-06-17	223
Observed price	2022-06-30	233
Observed price	2022-07-21	253
Observed price	2022-07-26	252
Observed price	2022-08-03	239
Observed price	2022-08-21	242
Observed price	2022-09-03	230
Observed price	2022-09-16	225
Observed price	2022-09-29	206
Observed price	2022-10-12	206
Observed price	2022-10-29	224
Observed price	2022-11-07	224
Observed price	2022-11-29	249
Observed price	2022-12-12	258
Observed price	2022-12-25	240
Observed price	2023-01-07	230
Observed price	2023-01-15	241
Observed price	2023-01-24	247
Observed price	2023-02-15	231
Observed price	2023-03-04	226
Observed price	2023-03-13	214
Observed price	2023-03-26	213
Observed price	2023-04-03	226
Observed price	2023-04-12	226
Observed price	2023-04-29	235
Observed price	2023-05-17	226
Observed price	2023-05-21	231
Observed price	2023-06-03	241
Observed price	2023-06-25	251
Observed price	2023-07-08	258
Observed price	2023-07-21	269
Observed price	2023-07-25	279
Observed price	2023-08-07	273
Observed price	2023-09-02	274
Observed price	2023-09-11	269
Observed price	2023-09-15	261
Observed price	2023-10-02	249
Observed price	2023-10-11	255
Observed price	2023-10-24	235
Observed price	2023-11-06	251
Observed price	2023-11-23	274
Observed price	2023-12-02	284
Observed price	2023-12-24	312
Observed price	2023-12-28	312
Observed price	2024-01-10	298
Observed price	2024-01-23	306
Observed price	2024-02-14	312
Observed price	2024-02-18	314
Observed price	2024-03-11	338
Observed price	2024-03-24	344
Observed price	2024-04-06	332
Observed price	2024-04-10	327
Observed price	2024-04-27	302
Observed price	2024-05-10	317
Observed price	2024-05-28	303
Observed price	2024-06-01	304
Observed price	2024-06-10	297
Observed price	2024-07-01	296
Observed price	2024-07-19	330
Observed price	2024-08-05	340
Observed price	2024-08-14	353
Observed price	2024-08-18	356
Observed price	2024-09-09	364
Observed price	2024-09-26	381
Observed price	2024-10-05	373
Observed price	2024-10-18	386
Observed price	2024-10-31	359
Observed price	2024-11-04	374
Observed price	2024-11-26	393
Observed price	2024-11-30	395
Observed price	2024-12-22	345
Observed price	2025-01-04	337
Observed price	2025-01-17	354
Observed price	2025-01-21	359
Observed price	2025-01-25	363
Observed price	2025-02-25	349
Observed price	2025-03-05	361
Observed price	2025-03-31	351
Observed price	2025-04-05	334
Observed price	2025-04-22	329
Observed price	2025-05-01	357
Observed price	2025-05-18	361
Observed price	2025-05-22	353
Observed price	2025-06-04	358
Observed price	2025-06-17	335
Observed price	2025-07-05	353
Observed price	2025-07-18	340
Observed price	2025-07-31	336
Observed price	2025-08-13	363
Observed price	2025-08-30	365
Observed price	2025-09-08	375
Observed price	2025-09-12	364
Observed price	2025-10-04	341
Observed price	2025-10-21	332
Observed price	2025-10-30	347
Observed price	2025-11-16	327
Observed price	2025-11-25	342
Observed price	2025-11-29	340
Observed price	2025-12-21	324
Observed price	2025-12-25	325
Observed price	2026-01-11	357
Observed price	2026-01-24	350
Observed price	2026-02-11	367
Observed price	2026-02-15	368
Observed price	2026-03-09	331
Observed price	2026-03-17	312
Observed price	2026-03-30	321
Observed price	2026-04-17	345
Observed price	2026-04-30	321
Observed price	2026-05-08	315
Observed price	2026-05-17	303
Observed price	2026-05-30	299
Observed price	2026-06-21	320
Observed price	2026-07-04	351
Observed price	2026-07-13	329
Observed price	2026-07-21	319
Observed price	2026-08-08	367
Observed price	2026-08-16	351
Observed price	2026-09-07	327
Observed price	2026-09-22	328
Observed price	2026-09-24	320
Observed price	2026-09-25	329
Published advisor forecast	2026-09-18	321
Published advisor forecast	2026-12-18	327
Published advisor forecast	2027-03-18	317
Published advisor forecast	2027-06-18	327
Published advisor forecast	2027-09-18	340
Published advisor forecast	2027-12-18	354
Published advisor forecast	2028-03-18	364
Published advisor forecast	2028-06-18	375
Published advisor forecast	2028-09-18	383
Published advisor forecast	2028-12-18	398
Published advisor forecast	2029-03-18	406
Published advisor forecast	2029-06-18	414
Published advisor forecast	2029-09-18	426
Published advisor forecast	2029-12-18	435
Published advisor forecast	2030-03-18	448
Published advisor forecast	2030-06-18	457
Published advisor forecast	2030-09-18	471
Published advisor forecast	2030-12-18	480
Published advisor forecast	2031-03-18	490
Published advisor forecast	2031-06-18	504
Published advisor forecast	2031-09-18	514

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when the crude premium collapses while the 8% list price stays in the market. pushes past 52% exactly as it did after 2022, and the same disinflation drags the 10-year under 4%, cutting mortgages below 6% and releasing the lock-in backlog into Paint Stores Group. Volume leverage on a fixed store network then compounds the pricing windfall, EPS approaches $22 by 2031, and the multiple recovers toward 29x. Shares roughly double.

Bear case

The bear case activates if a third year of sub-4m home sales collides with unrecovered input inflation. Contractors defer projects, the September increase is quietly rebated, and Paint Stores Group same-store sales turn negative during 2027. falls below $2.5bn just as leverage sits at 2.4x, forcing the buyback, the main per-share engine, to slow. The market then reprices Sherwin as a cyclical distributor near 20x, and the shares fall toward $250.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus treats Sherwin-Williams as a bond-proxy compounder that always wins: 58% of 38 analysts rate it Buy with an average target near $391.50 against a $321 tape [21]. The anchoring bias is the pre-2024 multiple. Sell-side models still assume a low-30s P/E returns once housing normalises, while the stock has quietly been flat all year against a 10% index gain.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, implying mild underpricing. The blind spot is asymmetry in coatings pricing: analysts treat the 1 September 8% increase as a cost pass-through that reverses, when the 2021-23 record shows Sherwin retained price after resin deflation, lifting 680 basis points [7][8]. Meanwhile the housing drag is fully visible and fully priced at a de-rated 25x forward. Investors are paying for stalled volumes while receiving a free option on margin recapture plus a 3.3% buyback yield.

Convergence catalyst

The 27 October 2026 print is the first clean read on whether the September increase sticks. Paint Stores Group same-store sales holding above roughly 3% with stable would prove price is being taken without volume destruction; the first observable repricing is multiple expansion on unchanged guidance.

Paywalled preview begins: Macro-regime alignment

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Sentiment and regime

Greed and fear sentiment: -0.1
Expected volatility regime: moderate
Convergence-cycle position: stabilization

Primary drivers

Primary drivers supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Price Sticks WHEN OIL Finally Falls	The 8% list increase effective 1 September answers high-single-digit second-half raw-material inflation, and PPG's up-to-20% global action removed competitive discipline from the response [5][6]. Coatings pricing is asymmetric: the 2021-23 cycle lifted gross margin from 42.1% to 48.9% because price stayed after resin costs deflated. Expect the same ratchet as the Hormuz premium decays, rebuilding several hundred basis points of gross margin by 2028-29.	Not available	+22.0%
THE Share Count Shrink Machine	Sherwin-Williams converts distribution economics into per-share value mechanically: TTM net buyback yield is 3.31% against a dividend yield near 1%, and first-half 2026 repurchases of $1.84bn already exceeded the 2025 pace [11]. With capex only about 3.4% of revenue and TTM free cash flow of $3.21bn, the retirement of roughly 3% of shares annually persists through the horizon, compounding EPS even with flat volumes.	Not available	+16.0%
Mortgage RATE THAW Unlocks Repaint Deman	Residential repaint, the highest-margin pool, follows transactions, and transactions are at a 3.98m SAAR floor because the 30-year fixed sits near 6.8-7.1% [15]. That is an energy-shock-driven long-end problem, not a permanent one; as the Hormuz premium unwinds and the Fed's terminal 4.1% median dot passes, a 100-150bp mortgage decline late in the horizon releases years of deferred turnover into Sherwin's stores.	Not available	+14.0%
Store Density IS THE REAL MOAT	Over 4,900 company-operated stores give professional painters a same-day supply network no competitor replicates, and the store-optimization programme is complete, freeing management to return to the high end of 80-100 net new openings from 2027 [3][5][13]. Each mature store carries high incremental contribution on shared logistics, so unit growth converts directly into Paint Stores Group operating leverage once transaction volumes stabilise.	Not available	+12.0%

Primary frictions

Primary frictions supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
THE Existing HOME LOCK IN Drought	August existing-home sales fell 2.0% to a 3.98m SAAR, the first sub-4m pace since June 2025, with months' supply at 4.9, a decade high [15][17]. Housing starts dropped to a 1.275m SAAR and forecasters now cut 2027 starts by 4% [14][16]. Sherwin has grown revenue only about 2.2% annually since 2022 on price and mix alone; another two years of stalled turnover keeps organic volume negative.	Not available	-18.0%
Quality Premium Meets A 5% Discount RATE	The de-rating is documented, not hypothetical: trailing P/E fell from 33.7 in 2023 to 29.5 today, and the shares are flat year-to-date while the S&P 500 advanced roughly 10%. With the 10-year at 4.998% and the Fed's median dot at 4.1% into 2027, defensive compounders keep losing multiple points. A low-single-digit organic grower simply cannot defend a 30x rating in this rate regime.	Not available	-14.0%
Hydrocarbon Inputs NOT Pigment Squeeze	Brent near $104 transmits straight into binders, solvents and resins, where European trade bodies report increases up to 100% since mid-March 2026 [7]; titanium dioxide remains soft, so the shock is oil-derived and tracks the Iran conflict [9]. Management guides high-single-digit second-half input inflation, and coatings price recovery historically lags cost by two to three quarters, compressing gross margin through 2027 before catching up.	Not available	-9.0%
Tariff Friction ON AN Unhedged Input BIL	July 2026 Section 301 replacement duties of 10-12.5% across 60 economies raise landed costs on imported resins, additives, packaging and store equipment, and no company quantification of that exposure has been disclosed. Sherwin's manufacturing is largely domestic, limiting the hit, but the duties are structurally persistent and arrive alongside oil inflation, so the combined cost wedge delays margin recovery rather than derailing it.	Not available	-5.0%

Tail opportunities

Tail opportunities supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Mortgage Rates Crack Below SIX Percent	Energy normalisation plus a 2028 disinflation window pulls the 10-year under 4% and the 30-year fixed below 6%, releasing the lock-in backlog. Existing-home sales recover from 3.98m toward 4.8m, and because residential repaint follows closings with a two-quarter lag, Paint Stores Group same-store sales accelerate from 4.2% toward high single digits with enormous incremental drop-through. Probability stays under 50% because the Fed's own median dot holds 4.1% through 2027 and gilt-style long-end supply keeps term premium elevated.	30.0%	+30.0%
THE 2022 23 Margin Windfall Rerun	A durable Hormuz settlement in 2027-28 collapses the crude premium while the 1 September 8% list increase, and any successor action, stays in the market. That is precisely the 2021-23 sequence that carried gross margin from 42.1% to 48.9%. Consolidated gross margin would push past 52%, adding roughly $2 of EPS above consensus and inviting a re-rating toward 28x. It stays below 50% because the Iran conflict has already reversed twice and paint competitors could discount into weak volumes.	35.0%	+26.0%

Tail risks

Tail risks supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Price Without Volume Finally Breaks	A third consecutive year of sub-4m existing-home sales, with new residential down and Europe still contracting, meets the September 8% increase and customers trade down or defer. Paint Stores Group same-store sales turn negative during 2027, the list increase is partially rebated, and adjusted EPS lands nearer $11 than $13. The market then reprices Sherwin as a cyclical distributor at 20x, not a compounder at 26x. It stays below 50% because contractor backlog and repaint necessity have historically cushioned troughs.	30.0%	-28.0%
A DEBT Funded Empire Building DEAL	With net debt already 2.4x adjusted EBITDA at 30 June 2026 and book equity of only $4.6bn, a Valspar-scale acquisition financed at 6% coupons would strain interest coverage from 8.1x and force the buyback to pause, removing the main per-share engine. Integration risk plus a suspended repurchase would compress the multiple quickly, likely in 2028-29 if organic growth stays stalled. Probability is limited because management has publicly anchored to a 2.0-2.5x leverage target and bolt-on discipline.	20.0%	-19.0%

Step-by-step forecast path

Universal Investor forecast path for prediction task predrqst_batch_task__xrefsubjtskconf_80ed1824-4b93-5c35-8654-12b2fdfffd8b__sb7__20260920064920277661
Step	Forecast date	Step change	Projected value (USD)	Scenario rationale
1	December 18, 2026	+2.0%	327.14	The 27 October print shows the 8% September increase holding with same-store sales near 4%, offsetting weak housing data. Modest relief rally, capped by a 10-year yield above 4.9%.
2	March 18, 2027	-3.0%	317.33	January guidance for 2027 disappoints: Suvinil annualisation rolls off, high-single-digit input inflation compresses gross margin, and sub-4m existing-home sales persist. Consensus targets near $390 get trimmed toward $360.
3	June 18, 2027	+3.0%	326.85	Spring selling season confirms price realisation exceeds cost inflation for the first time in four quarters. Gross margin stabilises near 48%, and accelerated buybacks against a depressed tape lift per-share arithmetic.
4	September 18, 2027	+4.0%	339.92	Partial Hormuz de-escalation eases crude and resin costs while list prices hold. The classic coatings margin ratchet begins, and store openings resume at the high end of the 80-100 target.
5	December 18, 2027	+4.0%	353.52	Third-quarter margin recapture beats expectations as hydrocarbon inputs deflate faster than price concessions. Investors start discounting a 2028 earnings base above consensus, driving early multiple repair from roughly 24x forward.
6	March 18, 2028	+3.0%	364.13	2028 guidance embeds mid-single-digit sales growth and gross margin above 50%. Housing remains sluggish with starts near 1.35m, so upside comes from mix and pricing rather than volume recovery.
7	June 18, 2028	+3.0%	375.05	The Fed's first easing signals pull the 10-year below 4.5%, easing mortgage rates toward 6.3%. Repaint demand improves with a two-quarter lag, and cyclical buyers rotate back into coatings.
8	September 18, 2028	+2.0%	382.55	Consolidation quarter. Volume recovery proves slower than the rate move implies as buyers wait for lower prices, tempering enthusiasm. Buyback support and new store productivity keep the drift positive.
9	December 18, 2028	+4.0%	397.85	Existing-home sales finally break above 4.4m SAAR, releasing deferred repaint work. Paint Stores Group same-store sales accelerate toward high single digits with exceptional incremental drop-through on the fixed store base.
10	March 18, 2029	+2.0%	405.81	2029 guidance confirms volume-led growth, but the shares have already priced much of it. Rising wage and freight costs in a reflating economy temper margin expectations after two years of recapture.
11	June 18, 2029	+2.0%	413.93	Steady compounding quarter. Roughly 3% annual share retirement plus mid-single-digit organic growth supports low-double-digit EPS progression; the forward multiple holds near 25x with no re-rating catalyst.
12	September 18, 2029	+3.0%	426.34	Store openings added since 2027 reach productivity maturity, lifting Paint Stores Group operating margin. Performance Coatings benefits from an industrial restocking cycle as global manufacturing PMIs recover above 50.
13	December 18, 2029	+2.0%	434.87	Year-end positioning favours quality cash compounders as credit spreads widen modestly. Sherwin's 8x interest coverage and $3.5bn free cash flow attract defensive allocation, though valuation limits upside.
14	March 18, 2030	+3.0%	447.92	2030 guidance shows the Suvinil platform scaling across Latin America with margins converging toward group average. Brazilian volume growth partially offsets a maturing North American repaint cycle.
15	June 18, 2030	+2.0%	456.88	Mid-cycle steadiness. Input costs are normalised, pricing is flat, and earnings growth comes from volume plus buybacks. The market pays roughly 26x for predictability, offering no valuation tailwind.
16	September 18, 2030	+3.0%	470.58	Housing turnover approaches long-run norms as the mortgage lock-in cohort finally cycles. Sherwin captures disproportionate share through contractor relationships, and Performance Coatings wins in industrial reshoring projects.
17	December 18, 2030	+2.0%	479.99	Free cash flow near $4bn funds both accelerated store expansion and continued repurchase. Per-share economics improve faster than reported earnings, sustaining steady appreciation without multiple expansion.
18	March 18, 2031	+2.0%	489.59	Guidance for 2031 normalises to mid-single-digit sales growth. Late-cycle labour cost inflation in contractor markets caps margin upside, limiting the quarter to incremental compounding.
19	June 18, 2031	+3.0%	504.28	Cumulative share-count reduction of roughly 15% since 2026 becomes visible in per-share metrics. Investors re-anchor on EPS near $18, supporting a price approaching $505 at an unchanged multiple.
20	September 18, 2031	+2.0%	514.37	Horizon close. Sherwin trades as a mature, cash-generative distribution franchise at roughly 27x earnings, with growth tracking nominal construction activity plus buyback accretion rather than any structural re-rating.

Advisor and configuration

Advisor: universal_investor__the_polymath__anthropic_claude_opus_5__20260724_release
Persona: Universal Investor
Archetype: The Polymath
Model: 2026-07-24 release
Provider: Anthropic
Mode: RESEARCHER (Web Search Enabled) with High Reasoning and Standard Creativity
Task configuration: universal_investor__the_polymath__anthropic_claude_opus_5__20260724_release__equity__json__extnd_invest_thesis_4q_alphassym__ts_num_desc__h5y_s3m__var1__researcher__standard_creativity_high_thinking__batch
Forecast horizon: 5 year
Forecast steps: 20 steps of 3 month
Assembly type: Balanced Assembly
Assembly name: universal_investor__the_polymath__anthropic_claude_opus_5__20260724_release RESEARCHER Forecast Assembly
Input format: inmemory_base_placeholders__latest_eod_close_price_with_stats_and_fundamentals__var1
Output format: Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

Read the complete Universal Investor advisor methodology

Configuration components

aiassmprmtcmpnt_b995bbe2-6a15-55be-a576-525904f696e8
aiassmprmtcmpnt_c55d1851-d218-5d30-b83b-54bbda31e2ee
aiassmprmtcmpnt_930157b1-05d7-5699-bf0a-738645ee42fd
aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa
aiassmprmtcmpnt_8115cc2a-d418-54b1-a616-49dfa91195f4

Research sources

[1]Sherwin-Williams posts strong Q2 2026 results | SHW 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
[2]Documentsec.gov
[3]Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 slides: earnings beat, guidance raised By Investing.cominvesting.com
[4]The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
[5]The Sherwin-Williams Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
[6]PPG - PPG announces global price increase of up to 20% already in progressinvestor.ppg.com
[7]Raw material markets under pressure - European Coatingseuropean-coatings.com
[8]PPG expects favorable raw material prices through 2026 - execs | ICISicis.com
[9]Global Pigment & Coatings Industry Monthly Brief – June 2026finelandchem.com
[10]Sherwin-Williams - Sherwin-Williams Completes Acquisition of BASF's Brazilian Architectural Paints Businessinvestors.sherwin-williams.com
[11]SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO - Form 10-Q - FY2025sec.gov
[12]Sherwin-Williams Completes Acquisition of Suvinil — American Coatings Associationpaint.org
[13]SHW Stock Forecast 2026 - Sherwin-Williams Price Targets & Predictionstickernerd.com
[14]United States Housing Startstradingeconomics.com
[15]US Existing Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low as Mortgage Rates Climbplanet-today.com
[16]Housing starts outlook turns negative through 2027 as costs risehousingwire.com
[17]Existing-Home Salesnar.realtor
[18]Sherwin-Williams stock holds steady as Q2 2026 earnings beat and guidance raise support valuationad-hoc-news.de
[19]Sherwin-Williams stock gains as KeyCorp outlines 2026 earnings and guidancead-hoc-news.de
[20]Sherwin-Williams stock holds firm as valuation debate intensifiesad-hoc-news.de
[21]SHW: The Sherwin-Williams Company Stock Price, Chart & Key Stats | LuxAlgoluxalgo.com
[22]Sherwin-Williams stock gains support from solid Q2 2026 figures and guidancead-hoc-news.de
[23]Sherwin-Williams - The Sherwin-Williams Company Reports 2026 Second Quarter Financial Resultsinvestors.sherwin-williams.com

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