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005930.KRX
Samsung Electronics Co
Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

South Korean multinational electronics company and global manufacturer of smartphones, semiconductors, and consumer electronics.

HQ: South KoreaListed: South Korea

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Samsung Electronics Co.

Historical AI ConsensusHistorical AI Opinions

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KRX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is straightforward: Samsung is earning supernormal profits that nobody, including its own shareholders, believes will last. The tape agrees, marking the stock roughly 30% below its June record while quarterly profit hit an all-time high [6][8]. The base case accepts both facts. Contracted pricing and 2027 scarcity [12] carry earnings through 2027; supply response and the depreciation wall then cut them hard across 2028-2029; a leaner, structurally larger Samsung re-accelerates from 2030. Investors are not paid for the boom, which is already banked; they are paid for the retained capital and share count the boom leaves behind when the cycle turns.

  • FY2025 operating profit of KRW 43.6tn versus a Q2 2026 quarterly KRW 89.5tn frames the normalisation gap.
  • Roughly six times annualised Q2 of KRW 10,849 already embeds a severe earnings halving.
  • A KRW 90-110tn return equals 6.0-7.3% of KRW 1,511tn common-share market capitalisation in a single year.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in KRW.22.04K113.12K204.2K295.28K386.36KSep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in KRW.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (KRW)
Observed price2021-09-1777,200
Observed price2021-09-2577,433
Observed price2021-10-0771,600
Observed price2021-10-1169,625
Observed price2021-10-1970,600
Observed price2021-11-1270,600
Observed price2021-11-2474,800
Observed price2021-11-2872,300
Observed price2021-12-1877,700
Observed price2021-12-2680,300
Observed price2022-01-0778,300
Observed price2022-01-1577,367
Observed price2022-01-2771,300
Observed price2022-02-1674,800
Observed price2022-02-2471,500
Observed price2022-03-0472,900
Observed price2022-03-0869,500
Observed price2022-03-2869,700
Observed price2022-04-1766,667
Observed price2022-04-2167,700
Observed price2022-05-1165,700
Observed price2022-05-1566,367
Observed price2022-05-2367,900
Observed price2022-06-0865,300
Observed price2022-06-2458,400
Observed price2022-07-0656,400
Observed price2022-07-1861,900
Observed price2022-07-2661,700
Observed price2022-08-1159,900
Observed price2022-08-1960,900
Observed price2022-09-0855,600
Observed price2022-09-1257,600
Observed price2022-09-2852,900
Observed price2022-10-1055,600
Observed price2022-10-2659,400
Observed price2022-10-3058,700
Observed price2022-11-1162,900
Observed price2022-12-0162,600
Observed price2022-12-1359,700
Observed price2022-12-1759,500
Observed price2022-12-2955,300
Observed price2023-01-1860,400
Observed price2023-01-2663,800
Observed price2023-02-0363,500
Observed price2023-02-2362,000
Observed price2023-03-0760,700
Observed price2023-03-1159,667
Observed price2023-03-2762,100
Observed price2023-04-1266,000
Observed price2023-04-2465,200
Observed price2023-05-0265,700
Observed price2023-05-1464,367
Observed price2023-05-3072,300
Observed price2023-06-0372,033
Observed price2023-06-0771,000
Observed price2023-07-0969,633
Observed price2023-07-1773,300
Observed price2023-07-2970,333
Observed price2023-08-1068,000
Observed price2023-08-1866,300
Observed price2023-09-0371,133
Observed price2023-09-1572,000
Observed price2023-09-2768,400
Observed price2023-10-0966,300
Observed price2023-10-1769,400
Observed price2023-10-2967,300
Observed price2023-11-0670,900
Observed price2023-11-2671,433
Observed price2023-11-3072,800
Observed price2023-12-1673,167
Observed price2024-01-0179,380
Observed price2024-01-0576,600
Observed price2024-01-1771,000
Observed price2024-02-0275,200
Observed price2024-02-1873,467
Observed price2024-02-2672,800
Observed price2024-03-1374,100
Observed price2024-03-1772,633
Observed price2024-04-0285,000
Observed price2024-04-1083,850
Observed price2024-04-2276,100
Observed price2024-05-0881,300
Observed price2024-05-2475,900
Observed price2024-06-0174,233
Observed price2024-06-1378,600
Observed price2024-06-2180,000
Observed price2024-07-1187,600
Observed price2024-07-1586,700
Observed price2024-08-0474,133
Observed price2024-08-0873,400
Observed price2024-08-1680,200
Observed price2024-09-0174,367
Observed price2024-09-2162,867
Observed price2024-09-2962,400
Observed price2024-10-1159,300
Observed price2024-10-3159,200
Observed price2024-11-0857,000
Observed price2024-11-1253,000
Observed price2024-11-2457,267
Observed price2024-12-1455,933
Observed price2024-12-2253,333
Observed price2024-12-3053,200
Observed price2025-01-0755,400
Observed price2025-01-3152,400
Observed price2025-02-1255,800
Observed price2025-02-2058,400
Observed price2025-03-0853,700
Observed price2025-03-1254,900
Observed price2025-03-2460,500
Observed price2025-04-0953,000
Observed price2025-04-1355,867
Observed price2025-05-0354,360
Observed price2025-05-1557,300
Observed price2025-05-2753,900
Observed price2025-06-0859,625
Observed price2025-06-1657,200
Observed price2025-07-0662,233
Observed price2025-07-1061,000
Observed price2025-07-3072,600
Observed price2025-08-0369,433
Observed price2025-08-2371,433
Observed price2025-08-3168,300
Observed price2025-09-1679,400
Observed price2025-09-2081,367
Observed price2025-10-1094,400
Observed price2025-10-1491,600
Observed price2025-11-03111,100
Observed price2025-11-2396,067
Observed price2025-11-27103,500
Observed price2025-12-01100,800
Observed price2025-12-21109,100
Observed price2025-12-25114,050
Observed price2026-01-14140,300
Observed price2026-01-18149,167
Observed price2026-02-03167,500
Observed price2026-02-11167,800
Observed price2026-02-27216,500
Observed price2026-03-19200,500
Observed price2026-03-27179,700
Observed price2026-03-31167,200
Observed price2026-04-16217,500
Observed price2026-04-24219,500
Observed price2026-05-14296,000
Observed price2026-05-18281,000
Observed price2026-06-03356,000
Observed price2026-06-11299,000
Observed price2026-06-19354,000
Observed price2026-07-05315,167
Observed price2026-07-25251,000
Observed price2026-07-29208,500
Observed price2026-08-14274,500
Observed price2026-08-22273,333
Observed price2026-09-03250,000
Observed price2026-09-15248,500
Observed price2026-09-23285,500
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18261,000
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18292,320
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18309,859
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18325,352
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18305,831
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18290,539
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18267,296
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18248,586
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18233,670
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18226,660
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18231,194
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18240,441
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18252,463
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18267,611
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18283,668
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18297,851
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18306,787
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18319,058
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18328,630
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18335,203
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18345,259

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when scarcity outlasts the sceptics. If Nvidia qualification is confirmed at volume and share climbs through 2027, 's wafer appetite keeps conventional DRAM starved even as fabs open, extending high pricing into 2029 rather than 2027. Sustained cash then funds cancellation-heavy returns, shrinking share count while equity compounds. Peak-cycle earnings start to look like a plateau, the six-times multiple becomes indefensible, and the rerating does more work than the earnings.

Bear case

The bear case activates when demand financing cracks before supply discipline does. A pause during 2027, amplified by AI-safety politics and funding stress at model developers, meets the industry's simultaneous capacity build. Contract renegotiation follows spot collapse, and the 2026-2027 arrives as depreciation just as pricing falls, so operating profit falls faster than revenue. Buybacks slow with cash flow, the payout narrative dissolves, and Samsung retraces toward book-plus valuation.

Current crowd narrative

The market has already ruled: these profits are a mirage. Samsung prints its largest quarter ever, KRW 89.5tn operating profit [8], yet trades roughly 30% below the June record near KRW 370,000 [6] at about six times annualised earnings. Consensus anchors on 2018 and 2023, assumes supply overshoot, and treats the disappointing shareholder-return mechanics [19] as confirmation that management cannot be trusted to convert the windfall.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underprices these shares, but not for the obvious reason. It is right that peak memory earnings deserve a low multiple; the analytical blind spot is the retention arithmetic. Even after a KRW 90-110tn distribution [17], Samsung retains enough boom-era cash to rebuild equity toward roughly double the end-2025 KRW 424tn base by 2029, which resets the floor valuation. The market is discounting the earnings collapse while ignoring the the collapse leaves behind.

Convergence catalyst

The January 2027 board meeting, when the residual of the KRW 90-110tn return is finally allocated [17]. A binding cancellation tranche, rather than more employee-compensation buying, would prove the windfall reaches shareholders. First observable sign: share count falling in the Q4 2026 disclosure alongside the announcement.

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