Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+36.8%
HOOD.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
Robinhood's re-rating from roughly $69 in April to $120 in September was purchased with prediction markets and tokenizationtokenizationThe representation of data, rights, or assets with substitute digital tokens; in payments it can also mean replacing sensitive account details with non-sensitive identifiers.View full glossary entry optionality, not with cash. The business is genuinely better than its 2022 incarnation: crypto revenue fell 38% year over year in Q2 while total revenue rose 32%, which is what real diversification looks like. But event contracts peaked at 8.8 billion in Q1 and halved by August, and that line sits inside a confirmed circuit split in which Robinhood is a named litigant. The base case is therefore earnings that compound respectably while the multiple deflates toward platform-financial norms.
- TTM revenue of $4.93B and net income of $2.07B, compounding at a mid-to-high-teens rate through 2031.
- Roughly 25x a forward $6-7 EPS implies equity value near $150-165 per share.
- That equates to about $140-150B of market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry on a broadly stable share count.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 42.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-24 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 42.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-23 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-27 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 19.10 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 18.93 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-06 | 15.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 15.17 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 12.41 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-07 | 13.91 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 10.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-11 | 11.02 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-19 | 13.31 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 13.83 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-16 | 11.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 10.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 9.27 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-14 | 10.50 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-03 | 9.17 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-15 | 7.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 9.12 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 8.18 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 9.41 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 8.89 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 10.98 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 10.17 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-22 | 9.04 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-15 | 11.25 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-23 | 9.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-21 | 10.14 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 10.83 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-06 | 12.11 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 9.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 9.09 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-04 | 9.78 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 8.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-28 | 7.70 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 8.55 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 10.23 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 11.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-22 | 9.95 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-06 | 9.72 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 9.01 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-26 | 8.63 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-07 | 10.00 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 9.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-01 | 8.82 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 9.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-17 | 8.46 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-06 | 9.12 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-18 | 10.02 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 9.63 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 12.45 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 12.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 10.80 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 10.07 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 11.04 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-10 | 10.81 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 9.53 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-08 | 9.89 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 9.13 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-05 | 9.62 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-09 | 7.93 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-21 | 7.98 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 11.48 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-15 | 11.69 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 13.26 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-08 | 12.42 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 10.80 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 10.56 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 14.02 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 13.59 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-08 | 17.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 18.17 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 18.30 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 17.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-11 | 16.45 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 20.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-27 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-24 | 21.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-28 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-22 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 17.39 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 17.12 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 21.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 19.11 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-03 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-15 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-27 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-17 | 41.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 38.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-29 | 38.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-18 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-26 | 48.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 64.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 44.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 48.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-02 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 63.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-11 | 74.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-15 | 75.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 93.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-17 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-18 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-03 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-10 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-22 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-05 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 82.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-10 | 85.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 73.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-10 | 78.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 70.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 65.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 91.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-27 | 84.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 73.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-29 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 86.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-18 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 94.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 87.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-29 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-06 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 119 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 110 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 116 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 122 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 114 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 123 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 128 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 131 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 125 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 132 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 138 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 142 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 144 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 139 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 146 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 151 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 156 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 159 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 164 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates if the Supreme Court hands federal preemption to the CFTC. Prediction markets then become a nationally protected, exchange-cleared business rather than a litigation risk, and Robinhood's Rothera infrastructure monetizes both retail flow and institutional clearing. Layer on tokenized equities under the SEC's innovation exemption and an AI-led IPO wave reviving retail engagement, and revenue reaccelerates above 25% while the cost base barely moves. Earnings compound and the multiple holds, delivering substantial appreciation.
Bear case
The bear case activates when legal defeat meets cyclical downturn. An adverse Supreme Court ruling strips the volume core of event contracts precisely as a rate-driven risk-off episode collapses options and crypto volumes, exposing the 53x multiple to both numerator and denominator damage. Margin balances contract, net interest shrinks with balances, and the 0.16% free-cash-flow yield offers no valuation floorvaluation floorA price or valuation level believed to have durable support from cash flows, assets, policy, or demand.View full glossary entry. FY2022's 25% revenue decline and 1.03x book valuation show how far this equity can fall.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that Robinhood has graduated from meme-stock brokerage to diversified financial platform, with prediction markets and tokenizationThe representation of data, rights, or assets with substitute digital tokens; in payments it can also mean replacing sensitive account details with non-sensitive identifiers. as free options. Twenty-three of twenty-seven tracked analysts rate it Buy, yet the S&P Global average target of $119.93 sits precisely at the price [24][26]. The anchoring bias is anchoring on 30x 2027 adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry while treating a contested legal line as permanent revenue.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying overpricing rather than a dramatic mispricing. Two overlooked items: roughly 19% of Q2's $561M net income came from a non-operating RVI deconsolidation gain, and event contracts peaked at 8.8 billion in Q1 before falling to 4.7 billion in August [6][8][12]. Consensus itself models Q3 down sequentially to $0.49 from $0.62 [2]. The business is genuinely better; the price already assumes the legal and deceleration risks resolve favourably.
Convergence catalyst
The 4 November Q3 print is the first hard test: if event-contract and net-deposit deceleration shows through into revenue, the premium to consensus targets evaporates. The second, larger catalyst is any certiorari decision on sports event contracts during 2027. First visible sign: guidance language shifting from acceleration to normalization.
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