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Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Robinhood Markets.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Robinhood's re-rating from roughly $69 in April to $120 in September was purchased with prediction markets and optionality, not with cash. The business is genuinely better than its 2022 incarnation: crypto revenue fell 38% year over year in Q2 while total revenue rose 32%, which is what real diversification looks like. But event contracts peaked at 8.8 billion in Q1 and halved by August, and that line sits inside a confirmed circuit split in which Robinhood is a named litigant. The base case is therefore earnings that compound respectably while the multiple deflates toward platform-financial norms.

  • TTM revenue of $4.93B and net income of $2.07B, compounding at a mid-to-high-teens rate through 2031.
  • Roughly 25x a forward $6-7 implies equity value near $150-165 per share.
  • That equates to about $140-150B of on a broadly stable share count.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-8.6438.4285.48132.54179.6Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1642.0
Observed price2021-09-2040.7
Observed price2021-09-2444.9
Observed price2021-10-1042.0
Observed price2021-10-3034.9
Observed price2021-11-0737.7
Observed price2021-11-2327.6
Observed price2021-11-2727.6
Observed price2021-12-1719.10
Observed price2021-12-2118.93
Observed price2022-01-0615.58
Observed price2022-01-1415.17
Observed price2022-01-2612.41
Observed price2022-02-0713.91
Observed price2022-02-2310.86
Observed price2022-03-1111.02
Observed price2022-03-1913.31
Observed price2022-04-0413.83
Observed price2022-04-1611.19
Observed price2022-04-2010.71
Observed price2022-05-109.27
Observed price2022-05-1410.50
Observed price2022-06-039.17
Observed price2022-06-157.05
Observed price2022-06-279.12
Observed price2022-07-018.18
Observed price2022-07-219.41
Observed price2022-07-258.89
Observed price2022-08-1410.98
Observed price2022-08-1810.17
Observed price2022-08-229.04
Observed price2022-09-1511.25
Observed price2022-09-239.44
Observed price2022-10-2110.14
Observed price2022-10-2510.83
Observed price2022-11-0612.11
Observed price2022-11-189.19
Observed price2022-11-229.09
Observed price2022-12-049.78
Observed price2022-12-168.61
Observed price2022-12-287.70
Observed price2023-01-098.55
Observed price2023-01-2910.23
Observed price2023-02-0211.14
Observed price2023-02-229.95
Observed price2023-03-069.72
Observed price2023-03-109.01
Observed price2023-03-268.63
Observed price2023-04-0710.00
Observed price2023-04-159.96
Observed price2023-05-018.82
Observed price2023-05-099.11
Observed price2023-05-178.46
Observed price2023-06-069.12
Observed price2023-06-1810.02
Observed price2023-06-269.63
Observed price2023-07-1612.45
Observed price2023-08-0112.87
Observed price2023-08-0910.80
Observed price2023-08-1710.07
Observed price2023-09-0211.04
Observed price2023-09-1010.81
Observed price2023-09-269.53
Observed price2023-10-089.89
Observed price2023-10-209.13
Observed price2023-11-059.62
Observed price2023-11-097.93
Observed price2023-11-217.98
Observed price2023-12-0711.48
Observed price2023-12-1511.69
Observed price2023-12-2713.26
Observed price2024-01-0812.42
Observed price2024-01-2010.80
Observed price2024-02-0510.56
Observed price2024-02-1714.02
Observed price2024-02-2113.59
Observed price2024-03-0817.00
Observed price2024-03-1618.17
Observed price2024-03-2820.1
Observed price2024-04-0918.30
Observed price2024-04-2117.00
Observed price2024-05-1116.45
Observed price2024-05-1920.6
Observed price2024-05-2720.5
Observed price2024-06-1223.7
Observed price2024-06-2421.4
Observed price2024-06-2822.7
Observed price2024-07-2223.4
Observed price2024-08-0317.39
Observed price2024-08-0717.12
Observed price2024-08-2721.4
Observed price2024-09-0419.11
Observed price2024-09-2022.7
Observed price2024-10-0222.6
Observed price2024-10-1427.0
Observed price2024-11-0324.2
Observed price2024-11-0729.4
Observed price2024-11-1532.3
Observed price2024-11-2737.6
Observed price2024-12-1741.6
Observed price2024-12-2138.1
Observed price2024-12-2938.5
Observed price2025-01-1848.6
Observed price2025-01-2648.9
Observed price2025-02-0755.9
Observed price2025-02-1564.1
Observed price2025-03-0744.4
Observed price2025-03-1136.4
Observed price2025-03-2347.0
Observed price2025-04-0834.2
Observed price2025-04-2448.1
Observed price2025-05-0248.6
Observed price2025-05-1863.4
Observed price2025-05-2264.8
Observed price2025-06-1174.9
Observed price2025-06-1575.4
Observed price2025-07-0593.9
Observed price2025-07-0994.5
Observed price2025-07-17105
Observed price2025-08-02102
Observed price2025-08-18115
Observed price2025-09-03101
Observed price2025-09-11118
Observed price2025-09-19125
Observed price2025-10-09152
Observed price2025-10-17130
Observed price2025-11-02147
Observed price2025-11-10136
Observed price2025-11-22110
Observed price2025-12-04137
Observed price2025-12-16119
Observed price2026-01-01114
Observed price2026-01-05123
Observed price2026-01-17108
Observed price2026-02-0682.8
Observed price2026-02-1085.6
Observed price2026-02-2273.2
Observed price2026-03-1078.5
Observed price2026-03-2670.3
Observed price2026-03-3065.2
Observed price2026-04-1991.1
Observed price2026-04-2784.0
Observed price2026-05-0173.7
Observed price2026-05-2574.0
Observed price2026-05-2994.3
Observed price2026-06-1086.4
Observed price2026-06-18108
Observed price2026-07-04115
Observed price2026-07-2494.9
Observed price2026-08-0187.8
Observed price2026-08-1399.4
Observed price2026-08-29104
Observed price2026-09-06120
Observed price2026-09-14114
Observed price2026-09-22124
Observed price2026-09-25119
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18120
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18113
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18121
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18110
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18116
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18122
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18114
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18123
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18128
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18131
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18125
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18132
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18138
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18142
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18144
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18139
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18146
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18151
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18156
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18159
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18164

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates if the Supreme Court hands federal preemption to the CFTC. Prediction markets then become a nationally protected, exchange-cleared business rather than a litigation risk, and Robinhood's Rothera infrastructure monetizes both retail flow and institutional clearing. Layer on tokenized equities under the SEC's innovation exemption and an AI-led IPO wave reviving retail engagement, and revenue reaccelerates above 25% while the cost base barely moves. Earnings compound and the multiple holds, delivering substantial appreciation.

Bear case

The bear case activates when legal defeat meets cyclical downturn. An adverse Supreme Court ruling strips the volume core of event contracts precisely as a rate-driven risk-off episode collapses options and crypto volumes, exposing the 53x multiple to both numerator and denominator damage. Margin balances contract, net interest shrinks with balances, and the 0.16% free-cash-flow yield offers no . FY2022's 25% revenue decline and 1.03x book valuation show how far this equity can fall.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Robinhood has graduated from meme-stock brokerage to diversified financial platform, with prediction markets and as free options. Twenty-three of twenty-seven tracked analysts rate it Buy, yet the S&P Global average target of $119.93 sits precisely at the price [24][26]. The anchoring bias is anchoring on 30x 2027 while treating a contested legal line as permanent revenue.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying overpricing rather than a dramatic mispricing. Two overlooked items: roughly 19% of Q2's $561M net income came from a non-operating RVI deconsolidation gain, and event contracts peaked at 8.8 billion in Q1 before falling to 4.7 billion in August [6][8][12]. Consensus itself models Q3 down sequentially to $0.49 from $0.62 [2]. The business is genuinely better; the price already assumes the legal and deceleration risks resolve favourably.

Convergence catalyst

The 4 November Q3 print is the first hard test: if event-contract and net-deposit deceleration shows through into revenue, the premium to consensus targets evaporates. The second, larger catalyst is any certiorari decision on sports event contracts during 2027. First visible sign: guidance language shifting from acceleration to normalization.

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