Skip to main content
Assets
Renault logo
RNO.PAR
Renault
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers

French automotive group behind Renault, Dacia and Alpine, producing passenger cars, commercial vehicles and related mobility services.

HQ: FranceListed: France

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Renault.

Renault (RNO.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is simple: an industrial business the market values at roughly zero, attached to a profitable captive lender and €6.57 billion of automotive net cash, is grinding through genuine margin erosion caused by electric mix, Chinese price competition and an energy-driven input bill. Base case, Renault does not solve the competition problem but survives it, stabilizing group margin near 5.5% while the Nissan accounting distortion rolls off reported earnings. Investors are paid a covered dividend to wait, and the discount narrows partially rather than closing. Returns are dividend-led with slow multiple repair, not a turnaround re-rating.

  • Automotive net cash of €6.57 billion against roughly €8.1 billion equity value means little is paid for manufacturing.
  • Normalized near €4 on stabilized margin supports €36-40 at nine times earnings.
  • Cross-check: €2.20 dividend is covered by €1 billion automotive plus €350 million Mobilize upstream.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.18.6528.2837.947.5357.15Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-09-1729.1
Observed price2021-10-0731.4
Observed price2021-10-1232.0
Observed price2021-10-2231.4
Observed price2021-11-1634.7
Observed price2021-11-2630.3
Observed price2021-12-0128.8
Observed price2021-12-0629.5
Observed price2021-12-2730.2
Observed price2022-01-0634.1
Observed price2022-01-2133.3
Observed price2022-02-1036.5
Observed price2022-02-1536.3
Observed price2022-03-0721.9
Observed price2022-03-1222.5
Observed price2022-04-0125.1
Observed price2022-04-0622.1
Observed price2022-04-2123.5
Observed price2022-05-1122.4
Observed price2022-05-1624.1
Observed price2022-06-1026.6
Observed price2022-06-1523.9
Observed price2022-06-2026.4
Observed price2022-07-0523.3
Observed price2022-07-1523.4
Observed price2022-08-0429.2
Observed price2022-08-1430.6
Observed price2022-08-2928.0
Observed price2022-09-1831.6
Observed price2022-09-2327.8
Observed price2022-10-0328.5
Observed price2022-10-1832.2
Observed price2022-10-2332.2
Observed price2022-11-0231.0
Observed price2022-11-1732.8
Observed price2022-12-0235.0
Observed price2022-12-1234.0
Observed price2022-12-2231.2
Observed price2023-01-0636.1
Observed price2023-01-2638.0
Observed price2023-01-3137.5
Observed price2023-02-1543.1
Observed price2023-03-0242.7
Observed price2023-03-1735.5
Observed price2023-03-2736.4
Observed price2023-04-0137.9
Observed price2023-04-1637.4
Observed price2023-05-0632.0
Observed price2023-05-2133.7
Observed price2023-05-3131.4
Observed price2023-06-0533.3
Observed price2023-06-1536.3
Observed price2023-07-1037.9
Observed price2023-07-2039.1
Observed price2023-07-3039.9
Observed price2023-08-1437.4
Observed price2023-08-2937.3
Observed price2023-09-0335.2
Observed price2023-09-2838.7
Observed price2023-10-0335.8
Observed price2023-10-0836.6
Observed price2023-10-2832.3
Observed price2023-11-0733.7
Observed price2023-11-1735.7
Observed price2023-11-2735.1
Observed price2023-12-1739.2
Observed price2023-12-2237.7
Observed price2024-01-1134.9
Observed price2024-01-1634.0
Observed price2024-02-0535.7
Observed price2024-02-1539.9
Observed price2024-02-2036.6
Observed price2024-03-0639.0
Observed price2024-03-2646.2
Observed price2024-03-3147.3
Observed price2024-04-1050.3
Observed price2024-04-3046.9
Observed price2024-05-1550.0
Observed price2024-05-2049.5
Observed price2024-05-3053.9
Observed price2024-06-2948.0
Observed price2024-07-0450.2
Observed price2024-07-1450.2
Observed price2024-07-2944.5
Observed price2024-08-0840.5
Observed price2024-08-2343.2
Observed price2024-08-2842.8
Observed price2024-09-1238.4
Observed price2024-09-2740.8
Observed price2024-10-0236.3
Observed price2024-10-2240.3
Observed price2024-10-2743.3
Observed price2024-11-1641.5
Observed price2024-11-2639.4
Observed price2024-12-0643.7
Observed price2024-12-2646.9
Observed price2025-01-1045.8
Observed price2025-01-2048.7
Observed price2025-02-0448.0
Observed price2025-02-1452.3
Observed price2025-03-0150.2
Observed price2025-03-0647.8
Observed price2025-03-2649.4
Observed price2025-04-0543.3
Observed price2025-04-1042.6
Observed price2025-04-3046.9
Observed price2025-05-1047.5
Observed price2025-05-2049.5
Observed price2025-05-3044.7
Observed price2025-06-1938.5
Observed price2025-06-2439.2
Observed price2025-07-0941.7
Observed price2025-07-2434.4
Observed price2025-08-0331.5
Observed price2025-08-1833.5
Observed price2025-09-0232.7
Observed price2025-09-0733.6
Observed price2025-09-1735.2
Observed price2025-10-0235.7
Observed price2025-10-1233.8
Observed price2025-11-0634.1
Observed price2025-11-1136.2
Observed price2025-11-2134.0
Observed price2025-12-1137.1
Observed price2025-12-1636.3
Observed price2026-01-0535.0
Observed price2026-01-1033.7
Observed price2026-01-3031.0
Observed price2026-02-0931.4
Observed price2026-02-1432.9
Observed price2026-03-0130.5
Observed price2026-03-2127.6
Observed price2026-03-2628.3
Observed price2026-04-1531.4
Observed price2026-04-2031.2
Observed price2026-05-1027.9
Observed price2026-05-3028.7
Observed price2026-06-0427.1
Observed price2026-06-1428.8
Observed price2026-06-3025.1
Observed price2026-07-1025.8
Observed price2026-07-1526.8
Observed price2026-07-3028.0
Observed price2026-08-1929.2
Observed price2026-08-2428.3
Observed price2026-09-0829.6
Observed price2026-09-2227.3
Observed price2026-09-2426.1
Observed price2026-09-2526.3
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1827.4
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1828.5
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1830.2
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1828.7
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1829.9
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1831.3
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1832.9
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1830.9
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1832.2
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1833.5
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1834.8
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1833.1
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1834.1
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1835.4
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1836.8
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1835.0
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1836.0
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1837.1
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1838.6
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1836.7
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1837.8

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when accounting normalization and regulatory favour arrive together. A clean FY2026 print restores positive trailing , quantitative screens re-admit the stock, and the finalized CO2 revision confirms super-credits for small EU-built electric cars, validating the Twingo-Dacia franchise precisely where Renault holds cost leadership. Cost savings of €400 per vehicle then convert volume growth into rather than mix , and a Nissan stake monetization funds buybacks at 0.4 times book. Per-share value compounds faster than earnings.

Bear case

The bear case activates when European demand contracts while Chinese localized capacity ramps simultaneously. Pricing erodes in the B-segment, automotive margin slips below 3%, and capitalized software depreciation arrives just as turns negative. Mobilize then compounds the damage: falling electric residual values force write-downs in the very unit supplying half of group profit, and the board suspends the €2.20 dividend. Yield-seeking holders exit together, and the equity retests the mid-teens despite intact net cash.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd treats Renault as a structurally doomed European volume maker with a broken P&L, anchoring on the headline FY2025 loss of €10.93 billion and a 0.41 price-to-book. Sell-side is split between a €26 UBS Sell and a €38.91 consensus target [1][4], which is itself evidence that nobody trusts the numbers. Priced in: permanent margin erosion and no for the industrial business.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates these shares, and the blind spot is forensic rather than strategic. The headline loss was a non-cash reclassification of the Nissan stake, not an operating failure; associated-company contribution was zero in H1 2026 versus minus €2,322 million a year earlier [9][16], while net income group share ex-Nissan rose to €705 million from €461 million [13]. With automotive net cash of €6,570 million against roughly €8.1 billion of equity value [10], buyers are paying close to nothing for a 2.3-million-unit manufacturer and a profitable captive lender.

Convergence catalyst

The February 2027 FY2026 results are the trigger: the first clean full-year P&L since the Nissan reclassification, with guided 5.5% group margin and about €1.0 billion automotive [9]. The first observable sign of repricing is quantitative screens flipping trailing positive and forced short covering.

Complete advisor preview locked

Unlock this report and every AI Advisor

Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.