Renault (RNO.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+86.8%
Includes 6.27% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is simple: an industrial business the market values at roughly zero, attached to a profitable captive lender and €6.57 billion of automotive net cash, is grinding through genuine margin erosion caused by electric mix, Chinese price competition and an energy-driven input bill. Base case, Renault does not solve the competition problem but survives it, stabilizing group margin near 5.5% while the Nissan accounting distortion rolls off reported earnings. Investors are paid a covered dividend to wait, and the discount narrows partially rather than closing. Returns are dividend-led with slow multiple repair, not a turnaround re-rating.
- Automotive net cash of €6.57 billion against roughly €8.1 billion equity value means little is paid for manufacturing.
- Normalized EPS near €4 on stabilized margin supports €36-40 at nine times earnings.
- Cross-check: €2.20 dividend is covered by €1 billion automotive free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry plus €350 million Mobilize upstream.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-17 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-07 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-12 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-22 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-16 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-06 | 29.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-06 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-21 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 36.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-12 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-01 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-06 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-21 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-11 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-16 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-10 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-15 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-20 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-04 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-29 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-18 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-23 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-03 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-18 | 32.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 32.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-02 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-17 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-02 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-22 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-06 | 36.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-26 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-15 | 43.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-02 | 42.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-27 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 37.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-16 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-06 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-21 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-05 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-15 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-10 | 37.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-20 | 39.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-14 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-29 | 37.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-03 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-28 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-08 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-07 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-27 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-17 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-22 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-11 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-16 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-06 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-26 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-31 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-10 | 50.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-30 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-15 | 50.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-20 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-30 | 53.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-29 | 48.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-29 | 44.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-08 | 40.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-23 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-28 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-12 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-27 | 40.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-22 | 40.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-27 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-16 | 41.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-26 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-06 | 43.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-26 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-10 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-04 | 48.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-14 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-01 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 47.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-26 | 49.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-05 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 42.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-10 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-20 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-30 | 44.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 38.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-24 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-24 | 34.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-03 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-18 | 33.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-02 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-07 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-02 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-12 | 33.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-11 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-11 | 37.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-05 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-10 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-30 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-14 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-01 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-21 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-15 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-20 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-10 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-14 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-10 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-15 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-24 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 27.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 26.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 27.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 28.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 30.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 28.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 29.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 31.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 32.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 30.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 32.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 33.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 34.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 33.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 34.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 35.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 36.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 35.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 36.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 37.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 38.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 36.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 37.8 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when accounting normalization and regulatory favour arrive together. A clean FY2026 print restores positive trailing , quantitative screens re-admit the stock, and the finalized CO2 revision confirms super-credits for small EU-built electric cars, validating the Twingo-Dacia franchise precisely where Renault holds cost leadership. Cost savings of €400 per vehicle then convert volume growth into margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry rather than mix dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry, and a Nissan stake monetization funds buybacks at 0.4 times book. Per-share value compounds faster than earnings.
Bear case
The bear case activates when European demand contracts while Chinese localized capacity ramps simultaneously. Pricing erodes in the B-segment, automotive margin slips below 3%, and capitalized software depreciation arrives just as free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. turns negative. Mobilize then compounds the damage: falling electric residual values force write-downs in the very unit supplying half of group profit, and the board suspends the €2.20 dividend. Yield-seeking holders exit together, and the equity retests the mid-teens despite intact net cash.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats Renault as a structurally doomed European volume maker with a broken P&L, anchoring on the headline FY2025 loss of €10.93 billion and a 0.41 price-to-book. Sell-side is split between a €26 UBS Sell and a €38.91 consensus target [1][4], which is itself evidence that nobody trusts the numbers. Priced in: permanent margin erosion and no terminal valueterminal valueThe present value of all future cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period.View full glossary entry for the industrial business.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares, and the blind spot is forensic rather than strategic. The headline loss was a non-cash reclassification of the Nissan stake, not an operating failure; associated-company contribution was zero in H1 2026 versus minus €2,322 million a year earlier [9][16], while net income group share ex-Nissan rose to €705 million from €461 million [13]. With automotive net cash of €6,570 million against roughly €8.1 billion of equity value [10], buyers are paying close to nothing for a 2.3-million-unit manufacturer and a profitable captive lender.
Convergence catalyst
The February 2027 FY2026 results are the trigger: the first clean full-year P&L since the Nissan reclassification, with guided 5.5% group margin and about €1.0 billion automotive free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. [9]. The first observable sign of repricing is quantitative screens flipping trailing positive and forced short covering.
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