Oklo Inc. (OKLO.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+64.5%
OKLO.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Oklo has de-risked the permission to build far faster than the economics of building. DOE authorization, Groves criticality and a $3.0bn treasury are genuine achievements [4][10][12]; none proves a 75 MWe sodium fast reactor produces power at a cost leaving residual value for shareholders after the share count grows again. The base case therefore assumes Aurora-INL starts around 2028 with modest slippage, isotope revenue seeds a small cash line from 2027, and each milestone is partially offset by fresh equity issuance. Progress is real; per-share capture is muted.
- Roughly $3.0bn liquidity against guided 2026 cash use of $520-650m implies about five years of runway [12][17].
- At $38 and P/B 2.05, treasury covers nearly half the $6.7bn capitalisation; the option itself costs about $3.7bn.
- A 75 MWe Aurora at roughly $10,000/kW implies about $750m first-unit capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry — one powerhouse absorbs a quarter of cash.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 9.83 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-26 | 9.79 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-30 | 9.83 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-20 | 9.77 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 9.86 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-09 | 9.85 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 9.92 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-29 | 10.00 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-15 | 9.80 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 9.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 9.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 9.89 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-24 | 9.68 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-05 | 9.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-13 | 9.66 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-01 | 9.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-09 | 9.75 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-25 | 9.79 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 9.75 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-22 | 9.73 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-04 | 9.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 9.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-01 | 9.65 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 9.66 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 9.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 9.70 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-19 | 9.67 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-31 | 9.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-12 | 9.76 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 9.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-01 | 9.72 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-21 | 9.74 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 9.70 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 9.74 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 9.82 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-27 | 9.82 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-12 | 9.85 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 9.85 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-06 | 9.93 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-18 | 9.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-03 | 9.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-15 | 9.98 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 10.01 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 10.02 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-12 | 10.12 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-04 | 10.10 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 10.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 10.10 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 10.16 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-17 | 10.12 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-25 | 10.28 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-07 | 10.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 10.66 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 10.70 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-08 | 10.55 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-24 | 10.59 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 10.37 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 10.33 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 10.35 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-15 | 10.33 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-31 | 10.36 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 10.33 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-12 | 10.38 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-28 | 10.37 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-14 | 10.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-26 | 10.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-30 | 10.29 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-19 | 10.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-01 | 10.38 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 10.37 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-21 | 10.64 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-02 | 10.60 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 10.65 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-30 | 11.22 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-07 | 10.63 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 10.63 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 10.79 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-22 | 10.80 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 12.87 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-07 | 15.07 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 12.50 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-09 | 18.23 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 7.44 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-29 | 11.03 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-06 | 8.48 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-18 | 9.89 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-08 | 7.42 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-28 | 8.93 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 8.38 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 7.64 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 6.98 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-29 | 6.44 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-06 | 5.59 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 8.09 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-04 | 11.19 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 16.54 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-28 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 19.78 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-21 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-15 | 18.50 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-23 | 22.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-31 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-04 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 29.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-13 | 55.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 28.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-20 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-28 | 55.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 53.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-07 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 78.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-05 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 87.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 95.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-23 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-08 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 88.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-06 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-18 | 77.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-30 | 71.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-11 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 91.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 68.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 73.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 63.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 65.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 47.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 78.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-19 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-27 | 67.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-20 | 59.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 51.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-02 | 52.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-18 | 41.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-23 | 40.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 35.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 40.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 38.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 38.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 35.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 38.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 40.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 37.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 42.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 45.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 41.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 48.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 51.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 46.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 50.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 52.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 49.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 53.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 56.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 53.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 58.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 60.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 57.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 62.5 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when lenders replace shareholders as the marginal financier. A disclosed take-or-pay price plus project debt or a DOE loan guarantee would stop the share-count escalation, let Aurora-INL completion flow into visible contracted cash flow, and convert hyperscaler letters of intent from Equinix and Prometheus into firm orders. Each funded unit then lowers the perceived risk on the next, a reflexive loop running through 2028-2030. Shares could double from here without any change in the underlying technology.
Bear case
The bear case activates if fuel and schedule slip together. A delayed DOE plutonium allocation or HALEU shortfall pushes Aurora-INL beyond 2029 while burn runs at raised guidance; the company then issues equity into a falling price, and a cooling AI capex cycleai capex cycleThe investment cycle for data centers, chips, power, networking, and other AI infrastructure.View full glossary entry strips the demand premium from the entire SMR complex. Non-binding letters lapse, treasury cover per share erodes, and the stock converges toward liquidation valueliquidation valueThe estimated net value of a company's assets if it were to cease operations and sell everything.View full glossary entry. That path implies a decline well below $25 before stabilisation.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus trade treats regulatory access as settled and dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry as noise: 26 analysts average Buy with a $78.69 target, roughly 117% above spot [24], while the stock sits near its 52-week low of $36.61 [20]. That two-times gap is the anomaly. Media anchor on the 12 GW Switch headline and the Meta campus, treating gigawatts announced as gigawatts contracted.
Alpha-gap assessment
No convincing directional gap exists at $38 — the market and the sell side are pricing two different companies, and the truth sits between them. The crowd underestimates the DOE authorization pathway's genuine schedule compression [4][5] but overestimates how much of the 12 GW headline is a receivable: no disclosed $/MWh, no verified take-or-pay structure. Meanwhile the ATM machine [19][21] taxes every operational win. With half the $6.7bn cap in treasury, the option is fairly priced, not cheap.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the first disclosed contracted power price or a project-finance package replacing equity issuance, most plausibly 2027-2028 as Aurora-INL construction advances. The first observable sign is a quarter without an ATM drawdown alongside a funded backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry figure — that reframes Oklo from serial issuer to infrastructure developer.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.