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OKLO.NYSE
Oklo
Utilities · Electric Utilities

Advanced nuclear fission company developing compact modular power plants to provide clean, reliable, and affordable energy using recycled nuclear fuel.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Oklo.

Oklo Inc. (OKLO.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Oklo has de-risked the permission to build far faster than the economics of building. DOE authorization, Groves criticality and a $3.0bn treasury are genuine achievements [4][10][12]; none proves a 75 MWe sodium fast reactor produces power at a cost leaving residual value for shareholders after the share count grows again. The base case therefore assumes Aurora-INL starts around 2028 with modest slippage, isotope revenue seeds a small cash line from 2027, and each milestone is partially offset by fresh equity issuance. Progress is real; per-share capture is muted.

  • Roughly $3.0bn liquidity against guided 2026 cash use of $520-650m implies about five years of runway [12][17].
  • At $38 and P/B 2.05, treasury covers nearly half the $6.7bn capitalisation; the option itself costs about $3.7bn.
  • A 75 MWe Aurora at roughly $10,000/kW implies about $750m first-unit — one powerhouse absorbs a quarter of cash.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-11.0138.7888.58138.37188.16Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-149.83
Observed price2021-09-269.79
Observed price2021-09-309.83
Observed price2021-10-209.77
Observed price2021-10-289.86
Observed price2021-11-099.85
Observed price2021-11-219.92
Observed price2021-11-2910.00
Observed price2021-12-159.80
Observed price2021-12-279.77
Observed price2022-01-089.86
Observed price2022-01-129.89
Observed price2022-01-249.68
Observed price2022-02-059.77
Observed price2022-02-139.66
Observed price2022-03-019.71
Observed price2022-03-099.75
Observed price2022-03-259.79
Observed price2022-04-149.75
Observed price2022-04-229.73
Observed price2022-05-049.77
Observed price2022-05-129.69
Observed price2022-06-019.65
Observed price2022-06-059.66
Observed price2022-06-139.71
Observed price2022-07-159.70
Observed price2022-07-199.67
Observed price2022-07-319.71
Observed price2022-08-129.76
Observed price2022-08-169.77
Observed price2022-09-019.72
Observed price2022-09-219.74
Observed price2022-09-299.70
Observed price2022-10-119.74
Observed price2022-10-239.82
Observed price2022-10-279.82
Observed price2022-11-129.85
Observed price2022-11-209.85
Observed price2022-12-069.93
Observed price2022-12-189.87
Observed price2023-01-039.96
Observed price2023-01-159.98
Observed price2023-01-2710.01
Observed price2023-01-3110.02
Observed price2023-02-1210.12
Observed price2023-03-0410.10
Observed price2023-03-1610.11
Observed price2023-03-2010.10
Observed price2023-04-0110.16
Observed price2023-04-1710.12
Observed price2023-04-2510.28
Observed price2023-05-0710.32
Observed price2023-05-2710.66
Observed price2023-05-3110.70
Observed price2023-06-0810.55
Observed price2023-06-2410.59
Observed price2023-07-1410.37
Observed price2023-07-3010.33
Observed price2023-08-0710.35
Observed price2023-08-1510.33
Observed price2023-08-3110.36
Observed price2023-09-0410.33
Observed price2023-09-1210.38
Observed price2023-09-2810.37
Observed price2023-10-1410.30
Observed price2023-10-2610.32
Observed price2023-10-3010.29
Observed price2023-11-1910.32
Observed price2023-12-0110.38
Observed price2023-12-0910.37
Observed price2023-12-2110.64
Observed price2024-01-0210.60
Observed price2024-01-0610.65
Observed price2024-01-3011.22
Observed price2024-02-0710.63
Observed price2024-02-1910.63
Observed price2024-03-1010.79
Observed price2024-03-2210.80
Observed price2024-04-0312.87
Observed price2024-04-0715.07
Observed price2024-04-1912.50
Observed price2024-05-0918.23
Observed price2024-05-217.44
Observed price2024-05-2911.03
Observed price2024-06-068.48
Observed price2024-06-189.89
Observed price2024-07-087.42
Observed price2024-07-288.93
Observed price2024-08-018.38
Observed price2024-08-057.64
Observed price2024-08-256.98
Observed price2024-08-296.44
Observed price2024-09-065.59
Observed price2024-09-308.09
Observed price2024-10-0411.19
Observed price2024-10-1616.54
Observed price2024-10-2824.5
Observed price2024-11-1719.78
Observed price2024-11-2125.2
Observed price2024-12-1518.50
Observed price2024-12-2322.0
Observed price2024-12-3121.2
Observed price2025-01-0428.2
Observed price2025-01-2029.9
Observed price2025-02-0954.3
Observed price2025-02-1355.0
Observed price2025-03-0530.3
Observed price2025-03-2528.9
Observed price2025-03-2922.1
Observed price2025-04-0621.2
Observed price2025-04-1022.7
Observed price2025-04-3023.7
Observed price2025-05-1637.7
Observed price2025-05-2037.6
Observed price2025-05-2855.2
Observed price2025-06-1363.7
Observed price2025-07-0353.7
Observed price2025-07-0755.9
Observed price2025-07-2775.5
Observed price2025-08-1278.5
Observed price2025-08-2066.6
Observed price2025-09-0569.8
Observed price2025-09-1387.0
Observed price2025-09-1795.3
Observed price2025-09-21139
Observed price2025-10-15172
Observed price2025-10-23125
Observed price2025-11-08112
Observed price2025-11-2088.0
Observed price2025-12-06105
Observed price2025-12-1877.7
Observed price2025-12-3071.6
Observed price2026-01-11103
Observed price2026-01-1591.5
Observed price2026-02-0468.2
Observed price2026-02-0873.7
Observed price2026-02-2863.5
Observed price2026-03-0465.7
Observed price2026-03-2054.0
Observed price2026-04-0947.8
Observed price2026-04-1766.8
Observed price2026-04-2162.6
Observed price2026-05-1178.1
Observed price2026-05-1955.9
Observed price2026-05-2767.8
Observed price2026-06-2059.8
Observed price2026-06-2851.8
Observed price2026-07-0252.4
Observed price2026-07-1841.2
Observed price2026-07-3041.1
Observed price2026-08-0748.4
Observed price2026-08-2340.5
Observed price2026-09-0843.3
Observed price2026-09-1635.6
Observed price2026-09-2240.5
Observed price2026-09-2538.0
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1838.0
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1835.0
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1838.8
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1840.7
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1837.9
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1842.4
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1845.4
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1841.8
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1848.5
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1851.4
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1846.7
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1850.0
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1852.5
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1849.9
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1853.9
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1856.6
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1853.2
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1858.0
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1860.3
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1857.9
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1862.5

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when lenders replace shareholders as the marginal financier. A disclosed take-or-pay price plus project debt or a DOE loan guarantee would stop the share-count escalation, let Aurora-INL completion flow into visible contracted cash flow, and convert hyperscaler letters of intent from Equinix and Prometheus into firm orders. Each funded unit then lowers the perceived risk on the next, a reflexive loop running through 2028-2030. Shares could double from here without any change in the underlying technology.

Bear case

The bear case activates if fuel and schedule slip together. A delayed DOE plutonium allocation or HALEU shortfall pushes Aurora-INL beyond 2029 while burn runs at raised guidance; the company then issues equity into a falling price, and a cooling strips the demand premium from the entire SMR complex. Non-binding letters lapse, treasury cover per share erodes, and the stock converges toward . That path implies a decline well below $25 before stabilisation.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus trade treats regulatory access as settled and as noise: 26 analysts average Buy with a $78.69 target, roughly 117% above spot [24], while the stock sits near its 52-week low of $36.61 [20]. That two-times gap is the anomaly. Media anchor on the 12 GW Switch headline and the Meta campus, treating gigawatts announced as gigawatts contracted.

Alpha-gap assessment

No convincing directional gap exists at $38 — the market and the sell side are pricing two different companies, and the truth sits between them. The crowd underestimates the DOE authorization pathway's genuine schedule compression [4][5] but overestimates how much of the 12 GW headline is a receivable: no disclosed $/MWh, no verified take-or-pay structure. Meanwhile the ATM machine [19][21] taxes every operational win. With half the $6.7bn cap in treasury, the option is fairly priced, not cheap.

Convergence catalyst

Watch the first disclosed contracted power price or a project-finance package replacing equity issuance, most plausibly 2027-2028 as Aurora-INL construction advances. The first observable sign is a quarter without an ATM drawdown alongside a funded figure — that reframes Oklo from serial issuer to infrastructure developer.

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