Natera Inc (NTRA.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Partial Sell
5-Year Return Est.
+24.0%
NTRA.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Natera has become an excellent business trading at a price that already assumes it becomes a great one. Volume growth, guideline adoption and a 19-point gross-margin improvement since 2023 are documented facts; the $2,000 mature ASP and positive GAAP earnings are forecasts. Over five years I expect the operational case to largely deliver - revenue compounding toward $6-6.5bn with margins crossing into profit - while the multiple compresses from roughly 19x sales toward the high single digits as growth decelerates from 38% to 20%. The result is a good company producing mediocre shareholder returns, punctuated by sharp drawdowns whenever a quarter disappoints.
- Revenue guidance midpoint $2.88bn at 65% gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry implies a ~$150m GAAP operating loss in 2026.
- At 143m shares and $369, the market capitalises about 18x forward revenue for pre-profit oncology diagnostics.
- Cross-check: $6.4bn 2031 revenue at 15% net margin implies roughly $6.30 EPS - demanding 55x to justify today.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-28 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-18 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-15 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-23 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-27 | 93.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-05 | 87.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 92.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 74.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 62.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-03 | 70.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-11 | 70.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 60.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-03 | 60.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-15 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 44.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-16 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-24 | 38.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-14 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-26 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-11 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 36.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 45.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-10 | 55.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-30 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 52.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 44.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-29 | 47.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-30 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 38.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-14 | 42.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-18 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-26 | 48.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 57.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 55.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-23 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-27 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-21 | 52.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 47.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-06 | 48.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 47.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-12 | 51.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 45.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-06 | 57.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 45.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 44.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 50.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-03 | 58.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 56.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 61.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 60.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-28 | 66.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 70.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-12 | 90.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 89.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 96.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 97.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 87.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-07 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-23 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-04 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-20 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-30 | 97.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-19 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-16 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-24 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-26 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-05 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-25 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-29 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-10 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-26 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-03 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-02 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-11 | 167 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-01 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 198 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-26 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 242 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 229 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-05 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-25 | 241 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 200 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-26 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 200 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-18 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 208 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 207 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-29 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-14 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 282 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 262 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-28 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-09 | 320 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-25 | 337 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-29 | 325 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 342 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 409 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 413 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 369 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 340 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 353 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 375 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 356 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 381 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 358 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 376 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 391 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 364 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 382 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 393 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 377 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 400 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 412 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 391 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 411 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 428 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 436 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 449 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 458 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when reimbursement and evidence fire together: all seven MolDX decisions clear at the upper end, lifting ASP past $1,500 during 2027, while an interventional trial converts Signatera from prognostic marker to therapy-selection standard. Volume then grows because guidelines mandate serial testing, not because sales representatives persuade oncologists, and incremental ASP flows almost wholly to gross profit. Add a credible FIND readout and the multiple survives the deceleration rather than compressing. Shares compound above 15% annually.
Bear case
The bear case starts with a single flat quarter. Management has already conceded Q3 may not set a sequential volume record [2]; combine that with Oncodetect-driven ASP erosion and the true-up tailwind reversing, and 38% growth optically collapses toward 20%. At 19.5x sales with a GAAP operating loss, that re-rating is violent - high-multiple diagnostics routinely halve on decelerating growth. Rising real yieldsreal yieldsReal yields are inflation-adjusted returns on fixed-income instruments, showing the purchasing-power gain or loss after accounting for inflation.View full glossary entry amplify the duration hit, and R&D commitments cannot be cut quickly enough to defend earnings.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats Signatera as a settled monopoly with a reimbursement escalator attached: 19 Strong Buy ratings, targets to $435, and a 106% twelve-month return anchored on the $2,000 mature ASP as an entitlement rather than a negotiation [13]. Valuation discipline has been outsourced to momentum; third-party fair values near $220-250 are dismissed as models that cannot price optionality [7][13].
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd overestimates these shares, though not the company. Follow the evidence: 19.55x TTM sales, a GAAP operating loss implied by management's own 2026 guidance arithmetic, roughly 7-9% of quarterly revenue arriving as retrospective accrual true-ups [1][3], and $383.5m of insider selling with no buying [7]. Each is individually defensible; together they suggest the terminal margin and ASP assumptions embedded in the price allow no room for the competitive pricing pressure Oncodetect is already applying [11].
Convergence catalyst
Watch the ASP line, not the volume line. The first MolDX decisions landing in 2027 will reveal whether pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry is structural or negotiated; an uplift materially below the guided $150-200 would reprice the terminal margin assumption. First observable sign: guidance that holds ASP flat into 2028.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.