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MBG.FRA
Mercedes-Benz Group
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers

German automotive manufacturer of luxury vehicles and commercial vehicles, pioneer in automotive safety and autonomous driving technology.

HQ: GermanyListed: Germany

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Mercedes-Benz Group.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.FRA) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Mercedes is two businesses wearing one badge: a structurally challenged luxury carmaker and a profitable finance-and-vans operation that funds the dividend while the car business repairs itself. The market prices the whole group off the car division's collapsing reported margin. Over five years, falls, the share count shrinks roughly 4-5% annually, China stabilises at a permanently smaller base, and tariffs settle rather than escalate. The outcome is not a growth story; it is a cash-return story where per-share value rises faster than , and the discount to book narrows modestly rather than closing.

  • FY2025 net income of EUR 5.14bn across 949m shares anchors trough earnings near EUR 5.40 per share.
  • Applying nine times recovering mid-cycle earnings approaching EUR 7 supports a low-sixties share price by 2031.
  • Cross-check: EUR 93bn book plus an EUR 11bn truck stake against roughly EUR 42bn market capitalisation.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.36.651.0265.4579.8794.29Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-09-1472.2
Observed price2021-09-1971.7
Observed price2021-10-0679.0
Observed price2021-10-1081.1
Observed price2021-11-0186.3
Observed price2021-11-1889.5
Observed price2021-11-2785.3
Observed price2021-12-0586.8
Observed price2021-12-1868.9
Observed price2021-12-2769.3
Observed price2022-01-1773.9
Observed price2022-02-0868.3
Observed price2022-02-1272.2
Observed price2022-02-1675.2
Observed price2022-03-1059.0
Observed price2022-03-2766.0
Observed price2022-04-0462.6
Observed price2022-04-0962.5
Observed price2022-04-2265.1
Observed price2022-05-0961.1
Observed price2022-05-2664.8
Observed price2022-06-0467.9
Observed price2022-06-2161.3
Observed price2022-06-2559.0
Observed price2022-07-1252.2
Observed price2022-07-2154.9
Observed price2022-08-1160.8
Observed price2022-08-1660.3
Observed price2022-09-0656.0
Observed price2022-09-1058.3
Observed price2022-10-0253.3
Observed price2022-10-1152.2
Observed price2022-10-2859.0
Observed price2022-11-0159.3
Observed price2022-11-1464.1
Observed price2022-12-0164.8
Observed price2022-12-1862.6
Observed price2022-12-2762.0
Observed price2023-01-1368.5
Observed price2023-01-2266.6
Observed price2023-02-0472.2
Observed price2023-02-1272.3
Observed price2023-03-0675.5
Observed price2023-03-1073.9
Observed price2023-03-2370.2
Observed price2023-04-0568.9
Observed price2023-04-1870.3
Observed price2023-05-0566.9
Observed price2023-05-2270.8
Observed price2023-05-3169.8
Observed price2023-06-1775.4
Observed price2023-06-2173.9
Observed price2023-06-2572.1
Observed price2023-07-1772.6
Observed price2023-08-0370.9
Observed price2023-08-1269.4
Observed price2023-09-0267.3
Observed price2023-09-1966.8
Observed price2023-09-2865.8
Observed price2023-10-0265.1
Observed price2023-10-2461.5
Observed price2023-11-1057.2
Observed price2023-11-1859.1
Observed price2023-11-2758.1
Observed price2023-12-1463.4
Observed price2023-12-3162.6
Observed price2024-01-0963.5
Observed price2024-01-1859.4
Observed price2024-02-0464.4
Observed price2024-02-0864.6
Observed price2024-03-0173.4
Observed price2024-03-0973.0
Observed price2024-03-2274.1
Observed price2024-03-3174.3
Observed price2024-04-0876.3
Observed price2024-04-2573.0
Observed price2024-05-1767.8
Observed price2024-05-2666.3
Observed price2024-06-1264.3
Observed price2024-06-1663.7
Observed price2024-07-0365.4
Observed price2024-07-1264.0
Observed price2024-08-0258.3
Observed price2024-08-0757.3
Observed price2024-08-2862.4
Observed price2024-09-0160.8
Observed price2024-09-2355.5
Observed price2024-10-0656.7
Observed price2024-10-1057.8
Observed price2024-10-2358.0
Observed price2024-11-1352.3
Observed price2024-11-2652.1
Observed price2024-12-0955.6
Observed price2024-12-1456.1
Observed price2024-12-2652.9
Observed price2025-01-0854.6
Observed price2025-01-3058.9
Observed price2025-02-0757.2
Observed price2025-02-1661.3
Observed price2025-03-0961.6
Observed price2025-03-2259.1
Observed price2025-03-2756.2
Observed price2025-04-0449.3
Observed price2025-04-3054.3
Observed price2025-05-0951.7
Observed price2025-05-1752.7
Observed price2025-05-2651.4
Observed price2025-06-1251.6
Observed price2025-06-2148.9
Observed price2025-07-0851.3
Observed price2025-07-2554.0
Observed price2025-08-0349.8
Observed price2025-08-2454.1
Observed price2025-08-2853.3
Observed price2025-09-1951.1
Observed price2025-10-0254.9
Observed price2025-10-1552.2
Observed price2025-10-2353.2
Observed price2025-11-0958.3
Observed price2025-11-1856.6
Observed price2025-12-0560.6
Observed price2025-12-1061.3
Observed price2025-12-2259.4
Observed price2026-01-0461.1
Observed price2026-01-2657.3
Observed price2026-02-0361.0
Observed price2026-02-1257.4
Observed price2026-02-2558.7
Observed price2026-03-1852.7
Observed price2026-03-2752.3
Observed price2026-04-1354.6
Observed price2026-04-1752.1
Observed price2026-04-3048.6
Observed price2026-05-3051.8
Observed price2026-06-0448.9
Observed price2026-06-1248.5
Observed price2026-06-2543.5
Observed price2026-07-0445.5
Observed price2026-07-1244.0
Observed price2026-08-0347.9
Observed price2026-08-2045.0
Observed price2026-08-2444.8
Observed price2026-09-0648.2
Observed price2026-09-2243.6
Observed price2026-09-2441.4
Observed price2026-09-2541.5
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1844.2
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1845.5
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1844.6
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1846.4
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1847.3
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1848.8
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1850.2
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1848.7
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1850.7
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1851.7
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1852.7
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1854.3
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1852.1
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1854.7
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1856.4
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1857.5
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1858.7
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1859.8
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1858.6
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1860.4
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1861.6

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The decisive combination is a tariff truce and a truck-stake exit arriving in the same eighteen months. Duties capped near 10-15% restore several hundred basis points of Cars return on sales, while full Daimler Truck monetisation converts a non-operating asset worth a quarter of market cap into special distributions and accelerated repurchases at sub-book prices. Each retired share raises per-share book, drawing income funds back into the register, and the discount compresses toward 0.7x book.

Bear case

The break comes if used electric-vehicle values collapse while tariffs stay at 25%. Residual write-downs across the EUR 130bn lease book would erase the Financial Services profit that currently masks Cars' 0.2% reported margin, forcing provisioning exactly as cash conversion sits at 0.6. The buyback stops, the dividend is cut, and the income holders who anchor the register sell simultaneously. then reprices downward with the portfolio, removing the perceived .

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief: a structurally impaired luxury carmaker losing China permanently, where the 7.9% dividend and 5% buyback yield are compensation for rather than a . Sell-side anchors on 0.46x book as deserved, treating the EUR 844m China write-down as the first of many. Nobody argues Mercedes is expensive; they argue it is a .

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates these shares, but not for the reason value screens suggest. The overlooked evidence is compositional: Financial Services at 15.3% and Vans at 10.2% return on sales now cover a Cars division at 4% adjusted [1]. The market prices the whole group off Cars' collapsing reported margin while the cash-returning capacity sits elsewhere, reinforced by an EUR 11bn detachable truck stake [10]. The offsetting truth is that is a leasing portfolio, not a .

Convergence catalyst

The 2027 free-cash-flow print is the trigger. With R&D down 20% year on year and property investment guided lower [3], the first quarter showing industrial cash flow rising while Cars margin stays flat breaks the value-trap framing. Watch buyback authorisation size announced alongside FY2026 results as the first repricing signal.

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