Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.FRA) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+88.3%
Includes 6.22% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Mercedes is two businesses wearing one badge: a structurally challenged luxury carmaker and a profitable finance-and-vans operation that funds the dividend while the car business repairs itself. The market prices the whole group off the car division's collapsing reported margin. Over five years, capital intensitycapital intensityA business condition where large upfront spending on assets and infrastructure is needed to operate and grow.View full glossary entry falls, the share count shrinks roughly 4-5% annually, China stabilises at a permanently smaller base, and tariffs settle rather than escalate. The outcome is not a growth story; it is a cash-return story where per-share value rises faster than enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry, and the discount to book narrows modestly rather than closing.
- FY2025 net income of EUR 5.14bn across 949m shares anchors trough earnings near EUR 5.40 per share.
- Applying nine times recovering mid-cycle earnings approaching EUR 7 supports a low-sixties share price by 2031.
- Cross-check: EUR 93bn book plus an EUR 11bn truck stake against roughly EUR 42bn market capitalisation.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-19 | 71.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-06 | 79.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 81.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 86.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-18 | 89.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-27 | 85.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-05 | 86.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-18 | 68.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 69.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-17 | 73.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-08 | 68.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-12 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-16 | 75.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-10 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 66.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-09 | 62.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-22 | 65.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 61.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-26 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-04 | 67.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-21 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-25 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-12 | 52.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-11 | 60.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 60.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 56.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 58.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-02 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 52.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-01 | 59.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-14 | 64.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-01 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-18 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 62.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-13 | 68.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-22 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-04 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-12 | 72.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-06 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 73.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-23 | 70.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-05 | 68.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 70.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 66.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-22 | 70.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 75.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 73.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 72.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-17 | 72.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-03 | 70.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 69.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 67.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-19 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-28 | 65.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-02 | 65.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-24 | 61.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-10 | 57.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-18 | 59.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-27 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-14 | 63.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-31 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-09 | 63.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-04 | 64.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-08 | 64.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-01 | 73.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-09 | 73.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-22 | 74.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-31 | 74.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 76.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-25 | 73.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-17 | 67.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-26 | 66.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 64.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-03 | 65.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 64.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 58.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 57.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-28 | 62.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-01 | 60.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 55.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-06 | 56.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-10 | 57.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-23 | 58.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-13 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-26 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-14 | 56.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-26 | 52.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-08 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-30 | 58.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 57.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-16 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 61.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 59.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-27 | 56.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-04 | 49.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-09 | 51.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-26 | 51.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-12 | 51.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-21 | 48.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-25 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-03 | 49.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-24 | 54.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-28 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 51.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-02 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 52.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-23 | 53.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-09 | 58.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-18 | 56.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-05 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-04 | 61.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-26 | 57.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-03 | 61.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-12 | 57.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-25 | 58.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-18 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-27 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-13 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-30 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 51.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 48.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 45.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-12 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-03 | 47.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-20 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-24 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-06 | 48.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 41.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 44.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 45.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 44.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 46.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 47.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 48.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 50.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 48.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 50.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 51.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 52.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 54.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 52.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 54.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 56.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 57.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 58.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 59.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 58.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 60.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 61.6 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The decisive combination is a tariff truce and a truck-stake exit arriving in the same eighteen months. Duties capped near 10-15% restore several hundred basis points of Cars return on sales, while full Daimler Truck monetisation converts a non-operating asset worth a quarter of market cap into special distributions and accelerated repurchases at sub-book prices. Each retired share raises per-share book, drawing income funds back into the register, and the discount compresses toward 0.7x book.
Bear case
The break comes if used electric-vehicle values collapse while tariffs stay at 25%. Residual write-downs across the EUR 130bn lease book would erase the Financial Services profit that currently masks Cars' 0.2% reported margin, forcing provisioning exactly as cash conversion sits at 0.6. The buyback stops, the dividend is cut, and the income holders who anchor the register sell simultaneously. Book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry then reprices downward with the portfolio, removing the perceived valuation floorvaluation floorA price or valuation level believed to have durable support from cash flows, assets, policy, or demand.View full glossary entry.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief: a structurally impaired luxury carmaker losing China permanently, where the 7.9% dividend and 5% buyback yield are compensation for terminal declineterminal declineA sustained long-run deterioration path where growth and competitiveness fade over time.View full glossary entry rather than a return on capitalreturn on capitalA measure of profit generated relative to the capital used by a business, with the exact numerator and denominator depending on the convention applied.View full glossary entry. Sell-side anchors on 0.46x book as deserved, treating the EUR 844m China write-down as the first of many. Nobody argues Mercedes is expensive; they argue it is a value trapvalue trapA stock that appears cheap based on valuation metrics but remains stagnant due to fundamental business deterioration.View full glossary entry.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares, but not for the reason value screens suggest. The overlooked evidence is compositional: Financial Services at 15.3% RoEreturn on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period.View full glossary entry and Vans at 10.2% return on sales now cover a Cars division at 4% adjusted [1]. The market prices the whole group off Cars' collapsing reported margin while the cash-returning capacity sits elsewhere, reinforced by an EUR 11bn detachable truck stake [10]. The offsetting truth is that book valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities. is a leasing portfolio, not a liquidation floorliquidation floorA downside value estimate based on what assets could realize in a forced sale scenario.View full glossary entry.
Convergence catalyst
The 2027 free-cash-flow print is the trigger. With R&D down 20% year on year and property investment guided lower [3], the first quarter showing industrial cash flow rising while Cars margin stays flat breaks the value-trap framing. Watch buyback authorisation size announced alongside FY2026 results as the first repricing signal.
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