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MDT.NYSE
Medtronic
Health Care · Health Care Equipment

Medical technology company providing devices, services, and therapies across cardiovascular, surgical, neuroscience, and diabetes care.

HQ: IrelandListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Medtronic.

Medtronic plc (MDT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is credibility. Medtronic has spent a decade being a 4-5% grower wearing a , and the market stopped believing the growth story long before it started working. The evidence now points the other way: roughly 7% underlying , a raised fiscal 2027 guide of $5.94-6.00, a cash-generative 15% free-cash-flow margin, and a split-off that retires 4-5% of shares at a 7% discount [1][11]. The base case is unglamorous compounding, earnings-led rather than multiple-led, interrupted by an optical revenue decline when Diabetes deconsolidates in fiscal 2028.

  • Fiscal 2027 non-GAAP of $5.94-6.00 compounding high single digits toward roughly $8.30 by fiscal 2031.
  • At $92.10 the shares trade near 15.4x that guide; holding 16x implies about $135.
  • Cross-check: 5.2% TTM free-cash-flow yield plus 3% dividend funds the path without .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.63.5283.44103.36123.27143.19Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-14130
Observed price2021-10-01126
Observed price2021-10-10124
Observed price2021-10-31121
Observed price2021-11-05122
Observed price2021-11-26111
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Observed price2022-01-13109
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Observed price2022-05-01103
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Observed price2022-05-2798.9
Observed price2022-06-0197.7
Observed price2022-06-1888.3
Observed price2022-07-0191.2
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Observed price2022-12-1380.0
Observed price2022-12-1776.8
Observed price2022-12-2677.6
Observed price2023-01-1280.3
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Observed price2023-02-0385.6
Observed price2023-02-1684.4
Observed price2023-03-0978.3
Observed price2023-03-1478.4
Observed price2023-03-1880.2
Observed price2023-04-0980.6
Observed price2023-04-3090.8
Observed price2023-05-0590.5
Observed price2023-05-2685.3
Observed price2023-05-3082.9
Observed price2023-06-1788.3
Observed price2023-07-0886.5
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Observed price2023-09-1681.7
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Observed price2023-12-2482.3
Observed price2024-01-1187.1
Observed price2024-02-0187.6
Observed price2024-02-1085.7
Observed price2024-02-1985.5
Observed price2024-02-2783.5
Observed price2024-03-2483.6
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Observed price2024-04-0683.9
Observed price2024-04-1579.4
Observed price2024-05-0781.6
Observed price2024-05-1585.5
Observed price2024-06-0683.9
Observed price2024-06-1580.8
Observed price2024-06-2380.8
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Observed price2024-07-2479.1
Observed price2024-08-1082.2
Observed price2024-08-1483.6
Observed price2024-09-0590.9
Observed price2024-09-0990.5
Observed price2024-09-1889.0
Observed price2024-10-0588.0
Observed price2024-10-2391.0
Observed price2024-11-0590.1
Observed price2024-11-1885.2
Observed price2024-11-2686.3
Observed price2024-12-1880.3
Observed price2024-12-3180.1
Observed price2025-01-1385.0
Observed price2025-01-1788.2
Observed price2025-02-0391.5
Observed price2025-02-2188.5
Observed price2025-03-0694.1
Observed price2025-03-1492.6
Observed price2025-03-2787.7
Observed price2025-04-0584.8
Observed price2025-04-1882.0
Observed price2025-05-1886.3
Observed price2025-05-2380.7
Observed price2025-05-2782.0
Observed price2025-06-1388.0
Observed price2025-06-2686.0
Observed price2025-07-1489.7
Observed price2025-07-2792.4
Observed price2025-08-0490.1
Observed price2025-08-1793.1
Observed price2025-08-2692.0
Observed price2025-09-0893.2
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Observed price2025-10-0496.9
Observed price2025-10-2693.6
Observed price2025-11-0390.5
Observed price2025-11-21101
Observed price2025-11-25105
Observed price2025-12-1798.5
Observed price2025-12-3096.1
Observed price2026-01-0799.3
Observed price2026-01-1699.3
Observed price2026-02-02103
Observed price2026-02-11101
Observed price2026-03-0593.0
Observed price2026-03-0990.3
Observed price2026-03-3186.6
Observed price2026-04-1388.1
Observed price2026-04-2683.0
Observed price2026-04-3080.7
Observed price2026-05-0976.2
Observed price2026-05-3074.5
Observed price2026-06-0882.0
Observed price2026-06-3078.2
Observed price2026-07-1283.6
Observed price2026-07-2182.0
Observed price2026-08-0787.9
Observed price2026-08-1690.7
Observed price2026-08-2093.3
Observed price2026-09-0792.7
Observed price2026-09-2389.3
Observed price2026-09-2488.5
Observed price2026-09-2588.6
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1892.1
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1894.9
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1896.8
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1893.9
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1897.6
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18101
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18103
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18106
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18108
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18111
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18113
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18111
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18114
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18118
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18120
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18122
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18125
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18129
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18131
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18134
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18137

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when two independent engines fire together: renal denervation converts its CMS coverage into real procedure volume while Hugo wins general-surgery clearance. Suddenly Medtronic is not a single-franchise recovery but a three-platform growth story, holds above 7% into the 2030s, and mix pushes toward 21%. Investors then pay 18x rather than 15x on a larger number, and the share retirement magnifies each incremental dollar. That combination produces returns well above the base path.

Bear case

The bear case begins the day pulsed-field ablation becomes a commodity. Boston Scientific and J&J force annual price erosion, Medtronic defends share by conceding margin, and group slides back to 4%. The fiscal 2028 reported revenue decline from deconsolidation then reads as confirmation rather than accounting, tariffs keep a $300 million annual bite in operating income, and a 5.5% 10Y removes the yield support. Earnings stagnate while the multiple compresses toward 12x, delivering a meaningful drawdown from today's price.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Medtronic is a permanently repaired but permanently pedestrian : a 4-6% grower that finally beat, raised fiscal 2027 guidance to $5.94-6.00 and deserves a relief rally, nothing more [1]. Sell-side anchors on the decade-long 22-29x trailing band and treats the 13.7% headline as a one-week artefact to be discounted entirely. The MiniMed split-off is filed under housekeeping, not per-share arithmetic.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares. Two pieces of evidence do not appear in the consensus arithmetic. First, stripping the extra week's $570 million leaves roughly 7% underlying , not 4-5%, which is a regime change for this company [1][4]. Second, the exchange offer retires an estimated 4-5% of shares at a 7% discount without cash [9][11]. At 15.4x the guided fiscal 2027 non-GAAP with a 5.2% free-cash-flow yield, that combination is underpriced.

Convergence catalyst

The October 9 exchange-offer expiry is the trigger: a completed split-off delivers a visible share-count reduction and a clean, diabetes-free margin structure [11]. First observable sign of repricing is the November fiscal-Q2 print showing high-single-digit without the extra week, followed by consensus revisions higher.

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