Joby Aviation (JOBY.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

The bull case activates when certification and capital stop competing. If the type certificate lands by mid-2028 with production approval close behind, Dubai revenue arrives first and US Part 135 service follows, converting an option into deliveries and making the next financing an equity-friendly event at a higher price rather than a dilutive rescue. Toyota's manufacturing scale then compresses unit cost faster than rivals, and a defense contract funds development directly. Shares could double from here.

The bear case begins with a single certification setback compounding a financing calendar. If for-credit testing exposes non-compliances and the type certificate drifts toward 2029, cash falls under roughly $1B, forcing an equity raise far below the $14.19 convertible strike; the lower price raises the cost of the following raise, which lowers the price again. Blade charter revenue cannot support a $6B valuation alone, and the shares would settle near cash backing.

The settled belief is that the FAA stamp is the stock: certify, and everything else follows. That conviction has curdled, with shares down roughly 38% year to date and a fresh 52-week low set in the very month Texas flights were expected [24]. Bulls anchor on 14x 2028 sales; bears on burn [17]. Almost nobody separates Blade's charter revenue from eVTOL revenue.

On balance the crowd still overestimates per-share value, though less egregiously than a year ago. The blind spot is arithmetic, not narrative: 51x TTM sales rests on charter revenue Joby purchased, while the share count that will exist when air taxis actually fly is materially larger than today's 970M after converts, RSUs and at least one further raise [6][10]. Certification progress is real; the residual claim it accrues to is shrinking quarter by quarter.

Two observable triggers compete. Confirmation that FAA pilots have flown for-credit TIA missions would compress delay risk and re-rate the equity within weeks; alternatively, an equity raise priced below the $14.19 convertible strike would force the market to model dilution explicitly. Expect one during 2027.