JFrog Ltd (FROG.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+45.3%
FROG.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that JFrog is a genuinely excellent business trading at a price that has already paid for its excellence. Cloud consumption compounds above 40%, security attach deepens and free-cash-flow margin grinds toward 30% - yet the shares entered this forecast at 18.84x trailing sales after a 2.4x re-rate from the February 2026 trough [19]. Over five years, revenue roughly doubles from the guided $650M base while the sales multiple compresses toward a still-premium mid-teens level. Investors capture the business growth minus multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry minus 4-6% annual dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry, leaving a mid-single-digit annualized return with severe interim drawdowns.
- Revenue compounding near 19% annually to roughly $1.45B by FY2031, with free-cash-flow margin near 30%.
- That implies roughly $435M of free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry; at 30-33x, equity value of $13-14.5B.
- Cross-check: spread over about 148M diluted shares, that is approximately $90-98 - modest per-share gain.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-21 | 35.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-06 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 33.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-04 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-28 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-22 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-22 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-03 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-11 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 18.40 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-25 | 18.18 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-02 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-14 | 17.91 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-26 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-08 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-28 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 19.68 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-22 | 19.53 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-16 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-09 | 20.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 19.93 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-01 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-01 | 23.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-13 | 18.10 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-25 | 18.94 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-26 | 18.85 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-01 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 27.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-08 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-05 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-29 | 25.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-27 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-04 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-24 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-06 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 30.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-26 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-07 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-23 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 32.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-28 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 42.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-31 | 44.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 43.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 37.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 41.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-10 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-03 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-25 | 38.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-14 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-03 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-01 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 31.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-25 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-18 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-22 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-12 | 30.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-10 | 36.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 42.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-30 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-15 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 43.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-02 | 44.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-10 | 42.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-14 | 41.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-30 | 43.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-12 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-28 | 42.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-21 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-06 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-22 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-30 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-16 | 46.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-28 | 50.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 46.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-09 | 62.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-11 | 68.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-23 | 66.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 57.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-28 | 60.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-13 | 51.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-21 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-13 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 47.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 43.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-02 | 50.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-26 | 45.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 70.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-16 | 66.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 88.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-13 | 78.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 90.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-07 | 96.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-23 | 81.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-31 | 79.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-28 | 98.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 87.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 90.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 89.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 92.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 88.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 81.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 86.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 89.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 93.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 91.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 95.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 99.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 102 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 104 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 109 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 112 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 115 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 117 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 125 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 127 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 131 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 135 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the toll booth outlasts the hype cycle. If agentic development sustains cloud growth above 45% into 2028 while security attach lifts Xray and Curation past 20% of revenue, blended growth holds near 30% rather than decaying to 18%. Operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry then pushes free-cash-flow margin toward 35%, and investors reclassify JFrog from repository vendor to supply-chain security platform. Sustained multiple support on doubled cash flow produces materially higher per-share value than the base path.
Bear case
The bear case begins with the meter, not the market. If enterprises optimize uncommitted cloud consumption during a 2027-2028 AI-capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry digestion, overage revenue - explicitly excluded from guidance [26] - evaporates first, dragging net dollar retention from 121% toward 110%. Deceleration below 15% growth then collides with ten-year yields above 5%, and a 19x sales multiple compresses toward the single digits seen in February 2026. dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. continues regardless, compounding the per-share damage.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief: AI coding agents make JFrog a metered toll booth on artifact volume, so 53% cloud growth extrapolates. Sell-side notes cluster at $115 from BTIG, Needham and DA Davidson [10][14][17], and the shares have nearly doubled in twelve months. The anchoring bias is recency - one 29% quarter [1] treated as the new run-rate rather than a cyclical peak.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd overestimates what this share price will deliver, not what the company will. Evidence: 18.84x trailing sales and a 1.50% free-cash-flow yield already discount the acceleration just reported, while the evergreen plan adds 6.58M shares annually against a buyback that retired 47,727 [5]. The blind spot is per-share leakage - revenue compounding near 20% funnels into a share count growing 4-6%, so enterprise growth outruns shareholder growth. Business excellent; entry price demanding.
Convergence catalyst
The February 2027 FY2027 guidance is the pivot. An initial guide near 18-20% growth, below the 22% just delivered, would expose deceleration mathematics the AI narrative currently masks. First observable sign: sell-side targets drifting from $115 toward the $90s while cloud growth guidance slips below 40%.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.