Industria de Diseno Textil SA (ITX.BME) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+57.3%
Includes 3.22% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that an excellent business met an unfriendly discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry. Inditex is compounding sales at high single digits in constant currency, defending a 58.7% gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry and converting profit into EUR 10.4 billion of net cash, yet the shares lost roughly a tenth of their value in eleven sessions as the ECB and Fed tightened. Base case: earnings grind higher at roughly 7% annually as space productivity and the parcel duty help, while the multiple drifts from about 25x toward the low twenties. Investors are paid a 3.4% dividend to wait for the rate regime to soften.
- TTM EPS near EUR 2.06 on 3.12 billion static shares; assume roughly 40% cumulative growth by FY2031.
- That implies about EUR 2.85 at a 23x exit multiple, supporting a high-sixties share price.
- Cross-check: EUR 161 billion market cap today against roughly EUR 9 billion of FY2031 net income.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 31.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-06 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-14 | 30.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-27 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-02 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-18 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-03 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-11 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 19.88 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-15 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-31 | 19.78 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 20.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 19.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-11 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-23 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-02 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-19 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-23 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-09 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-02 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-10 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-04 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-14 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-02 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-14 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-03 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-01 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-25 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-06 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-18 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-30 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-28 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-05 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-13 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-29 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-14 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-09 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-03 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 38.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 39.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-08 | 37.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-24 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-28 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 39.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 40.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-12 | 42.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-13 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-25 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-03 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-23 | 44.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-31 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-20 | 47.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-02 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 44.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-23 | 49.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-08 | 46.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-26 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 51.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 51.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 53.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-05 | 55.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 49.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 50.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-18 | 49.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-22 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-11 | 53.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-19 | 54.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-15 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-10 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 48.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-26 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-15 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 43.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-21 | 42.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-06 | 41.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-03 | 42.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-23 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-05 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-25 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-14 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-18 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-30 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-20 | 56.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-24 | 56.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-09 | 56.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-29 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 56.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 57.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 53.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 52.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 50.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 49.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-23 | 52.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 49.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 49.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-06 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 55.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-18 | 56.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 56.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-20 | 53.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-09 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-17 | 56.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-25 | 58.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 53.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 51.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 53.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 51.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 53.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 54.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 55.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 57.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 55.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 57.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 58.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 57.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 58.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 60.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 61.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 62.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 62.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 64.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 63.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 64.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 66.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 67.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 68.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 69.5 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the freight tax and the rate tax lift together. If Hormuz risk premia decay and Brent falls back below $80, the 50 basis points of excess opex growth reverses straight into operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry just as easing central banks restore duration appetite. Constant-currency growth near 9% then meets an expanding multiple, and the parcel duty steadily erodes ultra-fast rivals' landed-cost advantage. That combination compounds earnings and rating simultaneously, delivering returns well above the base path.
Bear case
The bear case activates if the July inventory build meets a weakening European consumer. Extended heat truncates the autumn season, forcing clearance that breaks the gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. guidance band, while energy-driven inflation keeps the ECB tightening into falling real incomes. Fixed lease obligations across 5,444 stores then convert a modest sales miss into a sharp margin miss, and a 25x multiple on a decelerating compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry is indefensible. Earnings and rating fall together.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats Inditex as the one apparel franchise that cannot be disrupted, and prices it accordingly: a 25x trailing multiple, roughly 70% buy ratings and a EUR 59-61 consensus target cluster [15][16]. The settled assumption is uninterrupted high-single-digit constant-currency growth. The anchoring bias is on last decade's discount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value., not today's 4.998% US 10-year.
Alpha-gap assessment
Mildly underpriced, but the edge is narrower than the pullback implies. The evidence chain matters: merchandise margin expanded 40 basis points, freight landed in opex and lease charges, and the share price fell about 10% in eleven sessions across two central-bank hikes. The market has conflated a discount-rate event with an earnings event. At EUR 51.70 the shares sit below every published consensus mean and near the ten-year average multiple, so the quality premium has already been surrendered without the franchise weakening.
Convergence catalyst
The December Q3 statement is the trigger: it resolves whether the 9.3% inventory build was pre-positioning or misjudgement, and whether the 9% constant-currency run rate held through autumn. The first observable sign of repricing is a gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. print inside guidance alongside opex growth decelerating below sales.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.