Hensoldt AG (HAG.FRA) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+72.2%
Includes 0.53% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is unusually clean: Hensoldt has more demand than factory. A €10.36bn backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry covers roughly 3.8 years of revenue, Germany's defence chapter is constitutionally ring-fenced and climbs toward €152.8bn by 2029, and yet management confirmed rather than raised 2026 revenue guidance. The five-year outcome therefore rests on manufacturing, not politics. Base case: the new radar plant ramps from 2027, revenue compounds in the mid-to-high teens toward roughly €5.5bn by 2031, adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry margin reaches about 20%, and the market gradually swaps a discount for an earnings multipleearnings multipleThe ratio of share price to earnings per share used to determine stock valuation.View full glossary entry — while a rich starting valuation and recurring peace-headline shocks cap the re-rating.
- adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. scaling from roughly €515m guided for 2026 toward approximately €1.1bn by 2031.
- At 11–12x EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry less modest net debtnet debtTotal debt minus cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry, that supports about €130 per share.
- Cross-check: €15bn enterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents. equals 2.7x 2031 revenue, consistent with European sensor peers.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 13.28 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 12.86 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-28 | 13.68 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 13.03 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 13.95 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 14.38 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 13.44 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 13.08 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 12.22 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 12.28 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-02 | 12.80 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-18 | 12.92 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 11.90 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-19 | 12.14 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 19.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-03 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-23 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-08 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-14 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-03 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-07 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-23 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-05 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-02 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-10 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 20.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-19 | 19.80 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-29 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-14 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-28 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-13 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 26.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-06 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-18 | 28.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-26 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-14 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 36.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-21 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-02 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-14 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-20 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-05 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-13 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-18 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-04 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-16 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-05 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-21 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-23 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-31 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-08 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-16 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-28 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-25 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-04 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 43.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-13 | 40.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-29 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-07 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-27 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-02 | 34.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-10 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-15 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-31 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-24 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 30.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 29.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-15 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 37.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-05 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-17 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-10 | 37.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-03 | 39.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 36.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-03 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-15 | 73.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 62.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-04 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-16 | 66.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 63.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 80.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-03 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 90.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 97.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-06 | 93.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 84.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 87.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 95.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 94.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-05 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 91.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-10 | 95.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-26 | 69.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-30 | 66.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-20 | 73.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-28 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 91.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 92.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 78.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-18 | 82.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-26 | 76.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-18 | 83.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 70.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 70.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 82.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-05 | 80.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-09 | 73.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 89.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 77.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-26 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-16 | 72.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 79.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 82.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-17 | 95.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-21 | 89.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 77.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 78.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 76.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 76.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 78.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 83.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 87.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 85.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 89.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 92.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 97.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 99.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 102 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 107 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 111 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 106 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 110 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 114 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 119 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 122 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 126 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 128 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 132 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
Activation is narrow: the new radar plant fills on schedule while Berlin disburses what it appropriates. Once conversion is proven, each incremental order becomes revenue rather than backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry carries adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. margin through 20% ahead of 2030, and the equity re-rates from budget proxy to compounding sensor franchise. Add a European export breakout or confirmed FCAS workshare and the multiple expands as earnings rise — the classic double-count that carries the share above €180.
Bear case
The bear case needs two things at once: a credible Ukraine settlement and a missed conversion year. Peace headlines collapse the growth extrapolation while flat 2027 revenue despite a 2.0x book-to-bill proves backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. cannot be manufactured. Depreciation from 8%-of-revenue capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry then lands without volume, customer advances unwind, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry turns negative and coverage near 2x tightens. On 19x earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. the de-rate is brutal, back toward the €63 low.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that Hensoldt is German rearmament in pure form — a €10.36bn backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., budgets legislated to 2029, therefore a compounding certainty. Sell-side averages a €92 target, seven buys against one sell [10]. The anchoring bias is backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.-as-destiny: the crowd still marks order intake, while BofA's neutral call and confirmed-not-raised guidance reveal that the market has quietly repriced around conversion [12].
Alpha-gap assessment
Mildly underpriced, though not dramatically. The blind spot is accounting: a trailing P/E of 74.6 is an artefact of purchase-price amortisation from the Airbus carve-out and violent Q4 seasonality, not of a low-return business — guided adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. near €515m against roughly €10bn of enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry is the honest anchor. The crowd penalises optical earnings while under-weighting constitutionally funded demand and 3.8 years of order cover. Offsetting that, 9.5x book on a 9% ROEreturn on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period.View full glossary entry leaves a thin error budget.
Convergence catalyst
The 5 November 2026 nine-month print, then spring 2027 FY guidance. If second-half conversion validates the ramp and 2027 revenue is guided above 15% growth, the market swaps its backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. discount for an earnings multipleThe ratio of share price to earnings per share used to determine stock valuation.. First observable sign: a positive share reaction to orders, reversing 31 July's 5% drop.
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