Skip to main content
Assets
Hensoldt logo
HAG.FRA
Hensoldt
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments.

HQ: GermanyListed: Germany

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Hensoldt.

Hensoldt AG (HAG.FRA) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is unusually clean: Hensoldt has more demand than factory. A €10.36bn covers roughly 3.8 years of revenue, Germany's defence chapter is constitutionally ring-fenced and climbs toward €152.8bn by 2029, and yet management confirmed rather than raised 2026 revenue guidance. The five-year outcome therefore rests on manufacturing, not politics. Base case: the new radar plant ramps from 2027, revenue compounds in the mid-to-high teens toward roughly €5.5bn by 2031, margin reaches about 20%, and the market gradually swaps a discount for an — while a rich starting valuation and recurring peace-headline shocks cap the re-rating.

  • scaling from roughly €515m guided for 2026 toward approximately €1.1bn by 2031.
  • At 11–12x EV/ less modest , that supports about €130 per share.
  • Cross-check: €15bn equals 2.7x 2031 revenue, consistent with European sensor peers.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.-0.1335.9672.04108.12144.21Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-09-1613.28
Observed price2021-09-2012.86
Observed price2021-09-2813.68
Observed price2021-10-1013.03
Observed price2021-10-3013.95
Observed price2021-11-0714.38
Observed price2021-11-1913.44
Observed price2021-12-0113.08
Observed price2021-12-1712.22
Observed price2021-12-2112.28
Observed price2022-01-0212.80
Observed price2022-01-1812.92
Observed price2022-01-2611.90
Observed price2022-02-1912.14
Observed price2022-02-2719.77
Observed price2022-03-0321.1
Observed price2022-03-2327.5
Observed price2022-03-2726.9
Observed price2022-04-0824.5
Observed price2022-04-2026.3
Observed price2022-05-1022.3
Observed price2022-05-1422.8
Observed price2022-06-0324.1
Observed price2022-06-0725.2
Observed price2022-06-2322.1
Observed price2022-07-0124.8
Observed price2022-07-0521.1
Observed price2022-08-0225.6
Observed price2022-08-1023.3
Observed price2022-08-1823.4
Observed price2022-09-0320.7
Observed price2022-09-1121.3
Observed price2022-09-1919.80
Observed price2022-10-1322.1
Observed price2022-10-2523.9
Observed price2022-10-2924.0
Observed price2022-11-1421.5
Observed price2022-11-2222.6
Observed price2022-12-1221.3
Observed price2022-12-2822.1
Observed price2023-01-0522.9
Observed price2023-01-1322.9
Observed price2023-01-2926.7
Observed price2023-02-0626.9
Observed price2023-02-1828.9
Observed price2023-02-2631.1
Observed price2023-03-1436.0
Observed price2023-03-2231.8
Observed price2023-04-1134.7
Observed price2023-04-1536.5
Observed price2023-05-0531.2
Observed price2023-05-2132.4
Observed price2023-05-2930.3
Observed price2023-06-0229.7
Observed price2023-06-1428.2
Observed price2023-06-2628.5
Observed price2023-07-1632.4
Observed price2023-07-2032.6
Observed price2023-08-0530.5
Observed price2023-08-1330.6
Observed price2023-08-1729.0
Observed price2023-09-1830.7
Observed price2023-09-2627.2
Observed price2023-10-0425.6
Observed price2023-10-1629.6
Observed price2023-11-0528.4
Observed price2023-11-1326.5
Observed price2023-11-2126.9
Observed price2023-12-0723.5
Observed price2023-12-2324.0
Observed price2023-12-3124.7
Observed price2024-01-0825.1
Observed price2024-01-1628.1
Observed price2024-01-2827.5
Observed price2024-02-1734.6
Observed price2024-02-2532.8
Observed price2024-03-0434.0
Observed price2024-03-1634.3
Observed price2024-03-2843.7
Observed price2024-04-1340.3
Observed price2024-04-2937.6
Observed price2024-05-0737.2
Observed price2024-05-1939.2
Observed price2024-05-2738.4
Observed price2024-06-1633.3
Observed price2024-07-0234.4
Observed price2024-07-1036.8
Observed price2024-07-1435.7
Observed price2024-08-0332.7
Observed price2024-08-1535.8
Observed price2024-08-2733.4
Observed price2024-08-3133.2
Observed price2024-09-2028.8
Observed price2024-09-2428.2
Observed price2024-10-0230.0
Observed price2024-10-1829.9
Observed price2024-11-0733.0
Observed price2024-11-1534.0
Observed price2024-12-0137.1
Observed price2024-12-0538.0
Observed price2024-12-1733.9
Observed price2025-01-0633.9
Observed price2025-01-1037.1
Observed price2025-02-0339.8
Observed price2025-02-0736.5
Observed price2025-02-1543.2
Observed price2025-03-0372.2
Observed price2025-03-1573.0
Observed price2025-03-3162.4
Observed price2025-04-0454.0
Observed price2025-04-1666.5
Observed price2025-04-2863.0
Observed price2025-05-1874.0
Observed price2025-05-2280.2
Observed price2025-06-03102
Observed price2025-06-1990.0
Observed price2025-07-0597.8
Observed price2025-07-09105
Observed price2025-07-2994.2
Observed price2025-08-0693.8
Observed price2025-08-1084.1
Observed price2025-08-2687.2
Observed price2025-09-1195.7
Observed price2025-09-1994.0
Observed price2025-10-05114
Observed price2025-10-13106
Observed price2025-10-1791.9
Observed price2025-11-1095.0
Observed price2025-11-2669.5
Observed price2025-11-3066.7
Observed price2025-12-2073.4
Observed price2025-12-2872.2
Observed price2026-01-1391.5
Observed price2026-01-1792.7
Observed price2026-02-0678.3
Observed price2026-02-1882.3
Observed price2026-02-2676.0
Observed price2026-03-1883.1
Observed price2026-03-2670.2
Observed price2026-03-3070.3
Observed price2026-04-1982.2
Observed price2026-05-0580.9
Observed price2026-05-0973.5
Observed price2026-05-1774.0
Observed price2026-05-2589.3
Observed price2026-06-1077.9
Observed price2026-06-2664.8
Observed price2026-07-1672.7
Observed price2026-07-2479.6
Observed price2026-08-0182.0
Observed price2026-08-1795.4
Observed price2026-08-2189.7
Observed price2026-09-1077.5
Observed price2026-09-2378.8
Observed price2026-09-2476.0
Observed price2026-09-2576.3
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1878.8
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1883.5
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1887.7
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1885.1
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1889.3
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1892.9
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1897.5
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1899.5
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18102
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18107
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18111
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18106
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18110
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18114
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18119
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18121
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18122
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18126
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18128
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18130
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18132

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

Activation is narrow: the new radar plant fills on schedule while Berlin disburses what it appropriates. Once conversion is proven, each incremental order becomes revenue rather than , carries margin through 20% ahead of 2030, and the equity re-rates from budget proxy to compounding sensor franchise. Add a European export breakout or confirmed FCAS workshare and the multiple expands as earnings rise — the classic double-count that carries the share above €180.

Bear case

The bear case needs two things at once: a credible Ukraine settlement and a missed conversion year. Peace headlines collapse the growth extrapolation while flat 2027 revenue despite a 2.0x book-to-bill proves cannot be manufactured. Depreciation from 8%-of-revenue then lands without volume, customer advances unwind, turns negative and coverage near 2x tightens. On 19x the de-rate is brutal, back toward the €63 low.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Hensoldt is German rearmament in pure form — a €10.36bn , budgets legislated to 2029, therefore a compounding certainty. Sell-side averages a €92 target, seven buys against one sell [10]. The anchoring bias is -as-destiny: the crowd still marks order intake, while BofA's neutral call and confirmed-not-raised guidance reveal that the market has quietly repriced around conversion [12].

Alpha-gap assessment

Mildly underpriced, though not dramatically. The blind spot is accounting: a trailing P/E of 74.6 is an artefact of purchase-price amortisation from the Airbus carve-out and violent Q4 seasonality, not of a low-return business — guided near €515m against roughly €10bn of is the honest anchor. The crowd penalises optical earnings while under-weighting constitutionally funded demand and 3.8 years of order cover. Offsetting that, 9.5x book on a 9% leaves a thin error budget.

Convergence catalyst

The 5 November 2026 nine-month print, then spring 2027 FY guidance. If second-half conversion validates the ramp and 2027 revenue is guided above 15% growth, the market swaps its discount for an . First observable sign: a positive share reaction to orders, reversing 31 July's 5% drop.

Complete advisor preview locked

Unlock this report and every AI Advisor

Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.