The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+43.7%
Includes 1.35% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is simple and unresolved: Goldman today earns like a franchise that has escaped the cycle and is priced as if that escape is permanent. The evidence supports a partial escape
- Alternatives fees, financing balances and a leaner capital regime have raised the floor on through-cycle ROTEreturn on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets.View full glossary entry toward the mid-teens. The evidence does not support 20% forever. So the base case is a normalisation in 2027-2028 that compresses earnings and the multiple simultaneously, followed by a recovery in which a relentlessly shrinking share count, not revenue heroics, does the compounding work for shareholders.
- H1 2026 EPS of $38.51 annualises near $77; base case normalises toward $65 before recovering above $95.
- Twelve times normalised 2031 , roughly 2.2x a grown book, supports a price near $1,250.
- Market capitalisation of $287bn versus about $112bn common equity; a 4% yearly share-count reduction carries the per-share arithmetic.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 406 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-30 | 382 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-12 | 386 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-24 | 413 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 421 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 395 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-03 | 383 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-07 | 400 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 381 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 399 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 397 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-24 | 343 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-09 | 375 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-25 | 340 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-09 | 326 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 344 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-25 | 336 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-06 | 319 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-18 | 330 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 309 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 299 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-01 | 326 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 321 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 287 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-19 | 311 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-23 | 323 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-12 | 353 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 355 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-05 | 331 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 340 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 294 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 329 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-27 | 337 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 382 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-24 | 387 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-10 | 362 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 359 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-26 | 343 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-11 | 364 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-23 | 349 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-08 | 375 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-20 | 363 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-24 | 364 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 308 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 314 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 326 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-21 | 342 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 329 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-11 | 321 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 327 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-04 | 320 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-12 | 341 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-28 | 314 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 328 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 334 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 356 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-11 | 340 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-23 | 319 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 324 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-16 | 344 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-28 | 325 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-18 | 302 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-26 | 297 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-03 | 328 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-19 | 337 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-05 | 346 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 351 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-29 | 386 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 377 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-22 | 386 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-26 | 378 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-30 | 387 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 385 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-27 | 391 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-18 | 388 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-30 | 414 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-11 | 397 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-27 | 425 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 427 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 470 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-25 | 459 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-10 | 447 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-18 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-08 | 471 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 482 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 497 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 470 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 505 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-29 | 510 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-10 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 495 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 513 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 530 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-01 | 519 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 587 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-29 | 609 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-03 | 600 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 558 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 566 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 613 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 630 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 652 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 665 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 593 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-13 | 525 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 586 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 563 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 546 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 615 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-24 | 601 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 614 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 614 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 715 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 703 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 730 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 743 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 721 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-01 | 734 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 781 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 805 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 784 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 762 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-27 | 790 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-12 | 808 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 780 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-02 | 815 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 889 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-30 | 886 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 941 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 976 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 915 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 930 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 860 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 867 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-12 | 788 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-28 | 815 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 910 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-03 | 908 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 944 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 963 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 1,093 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-20 | 1,096 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 1,031 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-02 | 1,021 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-14 | 1,140 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 1,053 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 1,025 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 1,022 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-27 | 1,041 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-12 | 1,016 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 923 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 935 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 942 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 914 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 959 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 902 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 866 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 918 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 954 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 983 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 954 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 1,001 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 1,031 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 1,052 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 1,010 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 1,060 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 1,092 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 1,114 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 1,136 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 1,182 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 1,205 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 1,229 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 1,266 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when capital relief and an AI-driven issuance window arrive together. Finalised 2026 capital rules free several billion dollars of CET1, the buyback pace exceeds $5bn quarterly, and the share count falls 7% annually just as Anthropic-style listings reopen equity capital markets. Alternatives fees then supply the recurring ballast that justifies capitalising a mid-twenties return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets.. The result is earnings and multiple expanding in the same direction, carrying the shares well above $1,400.
Bear case
The bear case activates when a private-credit or AI-infrastructure default coincides with a renewed energy-driven inflation shock. Leveraged finance freezes, hung bridges become marks, provisions rise exactly as underwriting and advisory fees collapse, and the Fed's hawkish path removes the discount-rate cushion. Investors then apply a trough multiple to trough earnings - the broker-dealer double contraction. Book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry growth stalls, buybacks are curtailed to preserve capital, and the shares retest the low-$700s.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that Goldman has mutated from a cyclical broker into a fee-and-financing compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry, so a 23.5% quarterly ROEreturn on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period.View full glossary entry [10] counts as the new baseline rather than a peak print. Sell-side positioning encodes this: 25 analysts rate it Hold with a $1,141.65 target [17]. The anchor is Q2 2026's record quarter, not the twelve-year return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. record beneath it.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying mild overpricing rather than a dramatic one. The decisive evidence is the gap between what 2.56x book valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities. per share of $367.67 [11] demands - roughly 20% sustained return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets. - and Goldman's realised 7%-12% return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. across 2015-2023. What partially offsets it, and stops this being a short case, is a buyback absorbing around 6% of market capitalisation annually, which compounds per-share value even through a revenue normalisation. Net: a full valuation, adequately cushioned.
Convergence catalyst
Q3 2026 results in mid-October are the first hard test of Solomon's own warning: softer relative FICC and non-compensation expenses up more than $500m [5]. A sequential decline in trading revenue alongside a rising efficiency ratioefficiency ratioA key metric measuring non-interest expenses as a percentage of revenue; lower is better.View full glossary entry is the first observable sign that the market begins pricing normalised, not peak, return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets..
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