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GS.NYSE
The Goldman Sachs Group
Financials · Investment Banking & Brokerage

Global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm serving corporations, financial institutions, and governments.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for The Goldman Sachs Group.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is simple and unresolved: Goldman today earns like a franchise that has escaped the cycle and is priced as if that escape is permanent. The evidence supports a partial escape

  • Alternatives fees, financing balances and a leaner capital regime have raised the floor on through-cycle toward the mid-teens. The evidence does not support 20% forever. So the base case is a normalisation in 2027-2028 that compresses earnings and the multiple simultaneously, followed by a recovery in which a relentlessly shrinking share count, not revenue heroics, does the compounding work for shareholders.
  • H1 2026 of $38.51 annualises near $77; base case normalises toward $65 before recovering above $95.
  • Twelve times normalised 2031 , roughly 2.2x a grown book, supports a price near $1,250.
  • Market capitalisation of $287bn versus about $112bn common equity; a 4% yearly share-count reduction carries the per-share arithmetic.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.185.39480.2775.011.07K1.36KSep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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Observed price2021-09-14406
Observed price2021-09-30382
Observed price2021-10-12386
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Observed price2026-09-25935
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18942
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Published advisor forecast2027-03-18959
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18902
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Published advisor forecast2028-03-18954
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Published advisor forecast2028-12-181,001
Published advisor forecast2029-03-181,031
Published advisor forecast2029-06-181,052
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Published advisor forecast2029-12-181,060
Published advisor forecast2030-03-181,092
Published advisor forecast2030-06-181,114
Published advisor forecast2030-09-181,136
Published advisor forecast2030-12-181,182
Published advisor forecast2031-03-181,205
Published advisor forecast2031-06-181,229
Published advisor forecast2031-09-181,266

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when capital relief and an AI-driven issuance window arrive together. Finalised 2026 capital rules free several billion dollars of CET1, the buyback pace exceeds $5bn quarterly, and the share count falls 7% annually just as Anthropic-style listings reopen equity capital markets. Alternatives fees then supply the recurring ballast that justifies capitalising a mid-twenties . The result is earnings and multiple expanding in the same direction, carrying the shares well above $1,400.

Bear case

The bear case activates when a private-credit or AI-infrastructure default coincides with a renewed energy-driven inflation shock. Leveraged finance freezes, hung bridges become marks, provisions rise exactly as underwriting and advisory fees collapse, and the Fed's hawkish path removes the discount-rate cushion. Investors then apply a trough multiple to trough earnings - the broker-dealer double contraction. growth stalls, buybacks are curtailed to preserve capital, and the shares retest the low-$700s.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Goldman has mutated from a cyclical broker into a fee-and-financing , so a 23.5% quarterly [10] counts as the new baseline rather than a peak print. Sell-side positioning encodes this: 25 analysts rate it Hold with a $1,141.65 target [17]. The anchor is Q2 2026's record quarter, not the twelve-year record beneath it.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying mild overpricing rather than a dramatic one. The decisive evidence is the gap between what 2.56x per share of $367.67 [11] demands - roughly 20% sustained - and Goldman's realised 7%-12% across 2015-2023. What partially offsets it, and stops this being a short case, is a buyback absorbing around 6% of market capitalisation annually, which compounds per-share value even through a revenue normalisation. Net: a full valuation, adequately cushioned.

Convergence catalyst

Q3 2026 results in mid-October are the first hard test of Solomon's own warning: softer relative FICC and non-compensation expenses up more than $500m [5]. A sequential decline in trading revenue alongside a rising is the first observable sign that the market begins pricing normalised, not peak, .

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