ELF Beauty Inc (ELF.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+40.6%
ELF.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that e.l.f. is two businesses wearing one ticker: a mature, price-elastic mass core defending shelf against imitators and its own 2025 price increase, and a founder-brand machine monetising rhode through Sephora's global footprint. Over five years rhode's international rollout and post-China sourcing should carry consolidated growth from guided 18-20% in FY2027 down toward low-teens, with EBITDA marginebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.View full glossary entry holding near 21% as marketing absorbs the tariff relief. Shareholders capture that through earnings compounding and buyback, not multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry — the re-rating from $52 already happened.
- FY2027 guided adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry of $401-407M on $1.94-1.97B sales implies roughly 21% margin, near flat year over year.
- At $96.40 shares trade at about 27x guided adjusted of $3.53 and roughly 15-16x EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry.
- Cross-check: a $5.76B market capitalisation equals about 2.9x FY2027 guided sales, unexceptional for a mid-teens compounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period..
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-06 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-18 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 32.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-09 | 31.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-02 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-07 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-19 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-03 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-15 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 33.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 32.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-30 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-07 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-15 | 40.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-09 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 43.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-02 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-08 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 55.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-20 | 53.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 57.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-13 | 50.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 57.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 67.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-14 | 73.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-02 | 74.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 70.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 74.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 84.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-23 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 88.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 86.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-14 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-20 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-21 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-10 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-22 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-04 | 99.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-24 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 94.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-21 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-19 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-16 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-28 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-29 | 211 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-24 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-13 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-25 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-23 | 185 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-08 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-28 | 211 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 198 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-15 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-31 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-06 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-03 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-15 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-10 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-22 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-11 | 74.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-23 | 73.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-03 | 63.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 69.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 62.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-16 | 50.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 59.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 61.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 79.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 81.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-11 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-23 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-01 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-13 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-25 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-18 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-27 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 95.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-22 | 70.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-30 | 75.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 81.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 76.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 87.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-21 | 91.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 76.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-10 | 75.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-26 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 82.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 66.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-15 | 69.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-23 | 65.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-21 | 51.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-29 | 56.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-08 | 74.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-20 | 79.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 82.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-09 | 96.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 95.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 99.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 96.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 90.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 97.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 94.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 101 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 105 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 108 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 102 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 108 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 112 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 116 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 118 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 122 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 124 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 121 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 127 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 133 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 136 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when European sell-through proves rhode is a global franchise rather than a US moment, and the core brand's price rollbacks restore units without permanently resetting margin. Those two must happen together: rhode supplies growth while the core supplies cash and shelf credibility. Sephora then overtakes Amazon in retail mix, prestige pricing lifts consolidated margin above 21%, and estimates for FY2030 move toward $8 of adjusted EPS on a re-expanded multiple.
Bear case
The bear case begins the moment the refund-flattered comparison arrives and underlying gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry lands in the sixties. A weakening core, defended only by price cuts, meets a rhode rollout that fills doors faster than it fills baskets. Marketing spend rises to defend both, ebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue. slips below 19%, and a 27x multiple on falling estimates unwinds violently — exactly the mechanism that took the stock from $150.99 to $52.35 in twelve months [16].
Current crowd narrative
The crowd has decided rhode is a settled compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry and the August guidance raise proved the drawdown was an overreaction. Shares doubled from $52 to near the $102 sell-side average, with targets spanning $65 to $127. What is treated as fact: 18-20% growth is the new run-rate. The anchoring bias is mistaking a one-off tariff refund for durable earnings power.
Alpha-gap assessment
No convincing gap exists at $96.40 — the two errors roughly cancel. The crowd overestimates near-term earnings durability, because roughly 1,050bps of Q1's 83% gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. was a non-recurring tariff refund [2] and headline TTM of $1.00 is simultaneously distorted by earnout remeasurement. Yet it underestimates rhode's multi-year shelf runway, still under 40% of Sephora doors after Europe [9]. Fair value clusters near the current price with unusually fat tails on both sides.
Convergence catalyst
The Q2 FY2027 report, expected early November 2026, is the first clean quarter without IEEPA refunds and the first including rhode Europe. Underlying gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. ex-refund is the tell. The first observable repricing sign: whether management holds the $401-407 million earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. guide without leaning on the windfall.
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