Dutch Bros Inc (BROS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+64.7%
BROS.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Dutch Bros is an excellent business being re-rated from an exceptional multiple toward a merely demanding one, while its operating engine keeps working. The August collapse punished a beat-and-raise because the market finally priced the comp step-down and the capital intensitycapital intensityA business condition where large upfront spending on assets and infrastructure is needed to operate and grow.View full glossary entry of build-to-suit development [4][5]. Over five years, unit count roughly doubles, coffee costs roll lower, SG&A leverage widens margins, and free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry inflects positive around 2029 - but a persistently rising fully exchanged share count means enterprise compounding outpaces per-share compounding. Investors earn the growth, minus the derating and the dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry.
- FY2026 guidance of $2.10-2.13B revenue and $385-390M adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry anchors roughly 25x forward EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry today [4].
- Base case: ~$4.5B revenue and ~$900M earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. by 2031 at 16x supports roughly $65 per share.
- Cross-check: ~2,600 shops at ~$2.0M average unit volumeaverage unit volumesAverage sales generated by each operating location or unit over a specified period.View full glossary entry implies a mid-teens-billion enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry before dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares..
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-23 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 76.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 71.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-22 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-04 | 46.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 53.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-05 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-21 | 41.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-02 | 56.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-06 | 56.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-26 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 44.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-22 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-30 | 61.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 55.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-17 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-02 | 40.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-14 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-24 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 46.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 42.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-30 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-08 | 29.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 36.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-09 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-03 | 36.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-07 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-31 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-09 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-17 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-05 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-25 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-14 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 32.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-13 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-11 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-08 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-05 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-15 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-31 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-28 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-30 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-23 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-04 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-12 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 32.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-28 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-18 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-26 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-11 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-05 | 42.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-13 | 41.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-25 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-10 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-03 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-09 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-25 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-14 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-12 | 52.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-24 | 54.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 53.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 59.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-25 | 59.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 67.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 85.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 58.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-26 | 68.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 53.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-23 | 61.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-01 | 60.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 73.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-21 | 64.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 73.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-04 | 67.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 66.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-24 | 58.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 56.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-13 | 67.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-02 | 73.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-14 | 62.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 47.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-12 | 51.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-28 | 59.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-17 | 51.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-25 | 57.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-07 | 58.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-19 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-27 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-04 | 60.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 62.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 52.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 56.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-21 | 48.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 54.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-13 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-10 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-30 | 57.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-12 | 50.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-16 | 51.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 58.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 57.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 71.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-03 | 71.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-15 | 63.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-31 | 65.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 51.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-24 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 37.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 40.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 42.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 43.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 45.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 47.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 49.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 51.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 52.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 50.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 52.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 54.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 55.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 56.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 58.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 59.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 61.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 59.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 61.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 62.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 64.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 65.9 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when cheap beans and a rate pivot arrive in the same twelve months. A record Brazilian crop turns the 60 bps coffee headwind into 50-100 bps of relief just as loyalty-driven traffic reaccelerates comps back above 6%, pushing FY2027 EBITDA marginebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.View full glossary entry over 20% [19][21]. Falling long yields then re-rate a beta-2.33 growth compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry, and slowing development capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry finally converts earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. into visible free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.. Earnings beats and multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry compound together.
Bear case
The bear case begins the quarter transactions turn negative. Pricing roll-off meets a fuel-squeezed consumer, systemwide traffic goes below zero, and the market stops treating the comp step-down as temporary [2]. Build-to-suit occupancy and a fixed-cost estate then amplify the revenue miss into shop-level margin compressionmargin compressionThe narrowing of profit margins due to rising costs or declining pricing power.View full glossary entry, while capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. above $400 million keeps free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. near zero. Sell-side targets reset from $78 toward the $29 low, and a growth multiplegrowth multipleGrowth multiple is a valuation premium assigned to businesses expected to sustain faster expansion than peers or the broader market.View full glossary entry becomes a mature-restaurant multiple [22].
Current crowd narrative
The consensus still reads Strong Buy with an average target near $78 against a $40 tape - a 48% gap that screams stale marks rather than conviction [22][24]. The crowd treats 30% revenue growth and the 7,000-shop runway as settled fact, anchoring on 2024-25 comp momentum while discounting the guided step-down to 4-5% and the capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. escalation [3][4].
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, but far less than the headline screens imply. The decisive overlooked evidence is structural, not operational: the honest equity base is roughly 188 million fully exchanged shares, not the 135 million on common screens, which puts BROS near 45x forward earningsforward earningsEstimated future profitability used to calculate valuation multiples for investment analysis.View full glossary entry and above 30x TTM EV/earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. even after a 45% drawdown [7][13]. Underpricing therefore rests on the 2027 coffee-cost roll and SG&A leverage, not on a valuation bargain.
Convergence catalyst
The Q3 2026 print, indicated for 11 November, is the hinge [14]. Systemwide comps landing at or above the 4-5% guide with positive transactions would kill the earnings-revision fear that drove the August collapse. The first observable sign of repricing: short-interest decline and sell-side targets migrating down toward $55-60 rather than being cut to the $29 low.
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