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BROS.NYSE
Dutch Bros
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants

Drive-thru coffee chain with Dutch-inspired culture and store expansion across the United States.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Dutch Bros.

Dutch Bros Inc (BROS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that Dutch Bros is an excellent business being re-rated from an exceptional multiple toward a merely demanding one, while its operating engine keeps working. The August collapse punished a beat-and-raise because the market finally priced the comp step-down and the of build-to-suit development [4][5]. Over five years, unit count roughly doubles, coffee costs roll lower, SG&A leverage widens margins, and inflects positive around 2029 - but a persistently rising fully exchanged share count means enterprise compounding outpaces per-share compounding. Investors earn the growth, minus the derating and the .

  • FY2026 guidance of $2.10-2.13B revenue and $385-390M anchors roughly 25x forward EV/ today [4].
  • Base case: ~$4.5B revenue and ~$900M by 2031 at 16x supports roughly $65 per share.
  • Cross-check: ~2,600 shops at ~$2.0M implies a mid-teens-billion before .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.16.9235.5954.2672.9291.59Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1536.7
Observed price2021-09-2352.0
Observed price2021-10-0944.8
Observed price2021-10-2976.2
Observed price2021-11-0271.6
Observed price2021-11-2251.3
Observed price2021-11-2654.3
Observed price2021-12-0446.3
Observed price2021-12-2453.1
Observed price2022-01-0546.5
Observed price2022-01-2141.3
Observed price2022-02-0256.3
Observed price2022-02-0656.8
Observed price2022-02-2647.6
Observed price2022-03-0244.2
Observed price2022-03-2259.4
Observed price2022-03-3061.9
Observed price2022-04-0752.0
Observed price2022-04-1955.5
Observed price2022-05-0941.1
Observed price2022-05-1726.4
Observed price2022-06-0240.0
Observed price2022-06-0641.7
Observed price2022-06-1433.4
Observed price2022-06-3031.6
Observed price2022-07-2039.0
Observed price2022-07-2436.4
Observed price2022-08-1346.8
Observed price2022-08-1742.9
Observed price2022-09-0634.7
Observed price2022-09-1037.2
Observed price2022-09-3031.1
Observed price2022-10-0829.8
Observed price2022-10-2436.1
Observed price2022-10-2836.4
Observed price2022-11-0929.2
Observed price2022-12-0336.5
Observed price2022-12-0732.7
Observed price2022-12-1530.8
Observed price2022-12-3127.9
Observed price2023-01-0830.8
Observed price2023-01-2836.8
Observed price2023-02-0936.6
Observed price2023-02-1738.6
Observed price2023-03-0534.2
Observed price2023-03-1729.1
Observed price2023-03-2529.0
Observed price2023-04-1032.6
Observed price2023-04-1432.1
Observed price2023-04-1830.5
Observed price2023-05-0832.3
Observed price2023-05-1226.0
Observed price2023-06-1329.7
Observed price2023-06-2127.6
Observed price2023-06-2527.8
Observed price2023-07-1129.6
Observed price2023-07-3131.0
Observed price2023-08-0828.0
Observed price2023-08-1233.4
Observed price2023-09-0128.7
Observed price2023-09-0528.3
Observed price2023-09-2523.4
Observed price2023-10-0323.1
Observed price2023-10-1525.5
Observed price2023-10-3124.3
Observed price2023-11-1227.2
Observed price2023-11-1627.1
Observed price2023-11-2829.6
Observed price2023-12-1028.4
Observed price2023-12-3031.5
Observed price2024-01-0331.0
Observed price2024-01-2327.5
Observed price2024-02-0426.2
Observed price2024-02-1227.8
Observed price2024-02-2027.1
Observed price2024-03-1131.8
Observed price2024-03-1533.9
Observed price2024-04-0432.5
Observed price2024-04-0832.4
Observed price2024-04-2828.4
Observed price2024-05-0226.9
Observed price2024-05-1836.7
Observed price2024-05-2634.7
Observed price2024-06-1139.5
Observed price2024-06-2339.0
Observed price2024-07-0542.1
Observed price2024-07-1341.3
Observed price2024-07-2537.2
Observed price2024-08-0637.7
Observed price2024-08-1029.4
Observed price2024-09-0330.8
Observed price2024-09-1934.8
Observed price2024-09-2334.6
Observed price2024-10-0931.1
Observed price2024-10-2535.5
Observed price2024-11-0233.3
Observed price2024-11-1446.9
Observed price2024-11-3054.0
Observed price2024-12-1252.5
Observed price2024-12-2454.8
Observed price2024-12-2853.1
Observed price2025-01-1759.7
Observed price2025-01-2559.9
Observed price2025-02-0667.8
Observed price2025-02-1885.4
Observed price2025-03-0664.8
Observed price2025-03-1058.4
Observed price2025-03-2668.8
Observed price2025-04-0753.1
Observed price2025-04-2361.1
Observed price2025-05-0160.0
Observed price2025-05-1773.1
Observed price2025-05-2164.9
Observed price2025-06-0673.1
Observed price2025-06-1869.8
Observed price2025-07-0467.0
Observed price2025-07-0866.1
Observed price2025-07-2458.5
Observed price2025-08-0156.7
Observed price2025-08-1367.5
Observed price2025-09-0273.0
Observed price2025-09-1462.9
Observed price2025-09-1858.1
Observed price2025-10-0847.9
Observed price2025-10-1251.2
Observed price2025-10-2859.3
Observed price2025-11-1751.6
Observed price2025-11-2557.4
Observed price2025-12-0758.2
Observed price2025-12-1964.8
Observed price2025-12-2764.2
Observed price2026-01-0460.8
Observed price2026-01-1662.1
Observed price2026-02-0552.4
Observed price2026-02-0956.9
Observed price2026-02-2148.3
Observed price2026-03-0554.5
Observed price2026-03-1347.3
Observed price2026-03-2947.6
Observed price2026-04-1055.9
Observed price2026-04-3057.5
Observed price2026-05-1250.7
Observed price2026-05-1651.6
Observed price2026-06-0158.9
Observed price2026-06-0957.8
Observed price2026-06-2971.7
Observed price2026-07-0371.1
Observed price2026-07-1563.9
Observed price2026-07-3165.8
Observed price2026-08-1651.0
Observed price2026-08-2452.0
Observed price2026-09-0945.0
Observed price2026-09-1344.0
Observed price2026-09-2338.4
Observed price2026-09-2537.9
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1840.0
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1842.0
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1843.7
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1845.9
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1847.3
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1849.2
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1851.1
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1852.7
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1850.6
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1852.6
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1854.2
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1855.8
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1856.9
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1858.6
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1859.8
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1861.6
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1859.7
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1861.5
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1862.7
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1864.6
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1865.9

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when cheap beans and a rate pivot arrive in the same twelve months. A record Brazilian crop turns the 60 bps coffee headwind into 50-100 bps of relief just as loyalty-driven traffic reaccelerates comps back above 6%, pushing FY2027 over 20% [19][21]. Falling long yields then re-rate a beta-2.33 growth , and slowing development finally converts into visible . Earnings beats and compound together.

Bear case

The bear case begins the quarter transactions turn negative. Pricing roll-off meets a fuel-squeezed consumer, systemwide traffic goes below zero, and the market stops treating the comp step-down as temporary [2]. Build-to-suit occupancy and a fixed-cost estate then amplify the revenue miss into shop-level , while above $400 million keeps near zero. Sell-side targets reset from $78 toward the $29 low, and a becomes a mature-restaurant multiple [22].

Current crowd narrative

The consensus still reads Strong Buy with an average target near $78 against a $40 tape - a 48% gap that screams stale marks rather than conviction [22][24]. The crowd treats 30% revenue growth and the 7,000-shop runway as settled fact, anchoring on 2024-25 comp momentum while discounting the guided step-down to 4-5% and the escalation [3][4].

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, but far less than the headline screens imply. The decisive overlooked evidence is structural, not operational: the honest equity base is roughly 188 million fully exchanged shares, not the 135 million on common screens, which puts BROS near 45x and above 30x TTM EV/ even after a 45% drawdown [7][13]. Underpricing therefore rests on the 2027 coffee-cost roll and SG&A leverage, not on a valuation bargain.

Convergence catalyst

The Q3 2026 print, indicated for 11 November, is the hinge [14]. Systemwide comps landing at or above the 4-5% guide with positive transactions would kill the earnings-revision fear that drove the August collapse. The first observable sign of repricing: short-interest decline and sell-side targets migrating down toward $55-60 rather than being cut to the $29 low.

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