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DUK.NYSE
Duke Energy
Utilities · Electric Utilities

Electric power holding company serving millions of customers across the Southeast and Midwest United States.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Duke Energy.

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is timing. Duke must spend $103 billion before the load it serves appears on customers' bills, funding the gap with $10 billion of equity, hybrids and roughly $9 billion of annual debt into the most hostile rate environment since 2007 [1][4][9]. The business itself is not in doubt — authorized returns, executed ESAs and a January 2027 rate reset make earnings delivery high-confidence. The multiple is the swing factor. Base case: earnings compound near 6% while the multiple stays roughly flat, delivering mid-single-digit price appreciation plus a 3.7% dividend rather than a re-rating.

  • 2026 adjusted midpoint of $6.68 compounding near 6% implies roughly $8.9 by 2031.
  • Holding today's 17.4x trailing multiple on that path supports a mid-$150s share price.
  • Cross-check: ~$134bn equity plus ~$120bn on ~$22bn holds near today's 11.25x.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.79.1499.42119.71140160.29Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1799.6
Observed price2021-09-3097.7
Observed price2021-10-08101
Observed price2021-10-1799.9
Observed price2021-10-26103
Observed price2021-11-08101
Observed price2021-11-2997.0
Observed price2021-12-04100
Observed price2021-12-17104
Observed price2021-12-30105
Observed price2022-01-16102
Observed price2022-02-02105
Observed price2022-02-1599.5
Observed price2022-02-2099.5
Observed price2022-03-13107
Observed price2022-03-18105
Observed price2022-04-08115
Observed price2022-04-13115
Observed price2022-04-30110
Observed price2022-05-17109
Observed price2022-05-26113
Observed price2022-06-04111
Observed price2022-06-1798.1
Observed price2022-06-30109
Observed price2022-07-21104
Observed price2022-07-26107
Observed price2022-08-16112
Observed price2022-08-21112
Observed price2022-09-03107
Observed price2022-09-16108
Observed price2022-10-0891.1
Observed price2022-10-1288.2
Observed price2022-11-0393.2
Observed price2022-11-0793.2
Observed price2022-11-2999.9
Observed price2022-12-0399.4
Observed price2022-12-25103
Observed price2023-01-11105
Observed price2023-01-20102
Observed price2023-02-02102
Observed price2023-02-1098.2
Observed price2023-02-1998.4
Observed price2023-03-1394.2
Observed price2023-03-2194.7
Observed price2023-04-0899.6
Observed price2023-04-2599.6
Observed price2023-05-0497.7
Observed price2023-05-0898.7
Observed price2023-05-3088.0
Observed price2023-06-0390.2
Observed price2023-06-1691.7
Observed price2023-06-2989.1
Observed price2023-07-2194.8
Observed price2023-07-2595.5
Observed price2023-08-0390.4
Observed price2023-09-0288.3
Observed price2023-09-1191.6
Observed price2023-09-1595.1
Observed price2023-10-0285.9
Observed price2023-10-1189.8
Observed price2023-10-2487.7
Observed price2023-11-1088.6
Observed price2023-11-2891.2
Observed price2023-12-0293.0
Observed price2023-12-1597.9
Observed price2024-01-0699.2
Observed price2024-01-1996.1
Observed price2024-02-0196.0
Observed price2024-02-1491.5
Observed price2024-02-2791.1
Observed price2024-03-1195.3
Observed price2024-03-2494.2
Observed price2024-04-0696.6
Observed price2024-04-1494.7
Observed price2024-05-0299.7
Observed price2024-05-19104
Observed price2024-05-28102
Observed price2024-06-05103
Observed price2024-06-2399.9
Observed price2024-07-0199.6
Observed price2024-07-19107
Observed price2024-07-23107
Observed price2024-08-14113
Observed price2024-08-18113
Observed price2024-09-09117
Observed price2024-09-17117
Observed price2024-10-05114
Observed price2024-10-09112
Observed price2024-10-18120
Observed price2024-11-13111
Observed price2024-11-26117
Observed price2024-11-30115
Observed price2024-12-17107
Observed price2025-01-12107
Observed price2025-01-17109
Observed price2025-01-21109
Observed price2025-02-07115
Observed price2025-02-16112
Observed price2025-03-10117
Observed price2025-03-18120
Observed price2025-03-23118
Observed price2025-04-09117
Observed price2025-05-01122
Observed price2025-05-05122
Observed price2025-05-27116
Observed price2025-05-31116
Observed price2025-06-17115
Observed price2025-06-26117
Observed price2025-07-18118
Observed price2025-07-26120
Observed price2025-08-08125
Observed price2025-08-21124
Observed price2025-09-08120
Observed price2025-09-16121
Observed price2025-10-04123
Observed price2025-10-17129
Observed price2025-10-30125
Observed price2025-11-03124
Observed price2025-11-20123
Observed price2025-11-29121
Observed price2025-12-08115
Observed price2026-01-07116
Observed price2026-01-16119
Observed price2026-01-24119
Observed price2026-02-11125
Observed price2026-02-19127
Observed price2026-03-04132
Observed price2026-03-13133
Observed price2026-03-22128
Observed price2026-04-08133
Observed price2026-04-21125
Observed price2026-05-04128
Observed price2026-05-17123
Observed price2026-05-30121
Observed price2026-06-12125
Observed price2026-06-25128
Observed price2026-07-17125
Observed price2026-07-26129
Observed price2026-08-08124
Observed price2026-08-16124
Observed price2026-08-21120
Observed price2026-09-11119
Observed price2026-09-24113
Observed price2026-09-25113
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18118
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18120
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18117
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18120
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18120
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18123
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18125
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18127
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18130
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18132
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18134
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18136
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18138
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18140
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18142
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18145
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18146
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18149
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18151
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18152
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18154

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when the and the capital plan move in the same direction. Disinflation during 2028-2029 pulls the ten-year below 4%, restoring the yield bid just as the February 2027 plan refresh adds the flagged $5-10 billion of Indiana and Florida large-load . Higher rate base then compounds against a lower , earned reaches the 10.3% sharing band, and the multiple expands toward 20x. Price appreciation compounds near double digits, with the dividend on top.

Bear case

The bear case needs only two things to coincide: persistent 5% long rates and a regulatory turn. Affordability backlash produces a capped data-center rate class and a sub-9.5% authorized , while FFO/debt slides under 14% and forces into a falling share price. Turbines and storage arrive ahead of deferred hyperscaler load, inviting prudence challenges on recovery. The then reprices toward 14x depressed earnings, and the dividend's growth rate — not its safety — becomes the question.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus trade treats Duke as the safest way to rent the AI boom: guaranteed rate-base growth, 100 years of dividends, and paying the bill. Sell-side targets near $159 assume an 18.4x multiple on 2030 of $8.64 [24]. The anchoring bias is the multiple — investors price 5-7% as if the had not moved to a 5% ten-year.

Alpha-gap assessment

Mildly underpriced, but for an unglamorous reason. The crowd argues about data-center gigawatts while the decisive variable is the authorized return on an earnings base compounding 9.6% annually [1] — a claim adjudicated in Raleigh and Tallahassee, not in Silicon Valley. At 17.45x trailing earnings and 1.67x book, the market embeds neither the January 2027 rate reset closing the gap between 9.58% realized and 9.8% authorized , nor the $6 billion Brookfield and $2.5 billion Spire proceeds that blunt [12].

Convergence catalyst

The North Carolina Commission orders and the January 2027 rate effectiveness are the trigger: they convert contested into cash earnings and verify that affordability politics did not gut the settlement [14][16]. The first observable sign is Q1 2027 realized moving toward 9.8% alongside reaffirmed guidance.

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