Duke Energy Corporation (DUK.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+48.8%
Includes 2.64% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is timing. Duke must spend $103 billion before the load it serves appears on customers' bills, funding the gap with $10 billion of equity, hybrids and roughly $9 billion of annual debt into the most hostile rate environment since 2007 [1][4][9]. The business itself is not in doubt — authorized returns, executed ESAs and a January 2027 rate reset make earnings delivery high-confidence. The multiple is the swing factor. Base case: earnings compound near 6% while the multiple stays roughly flat, delivering mid-single-digit price appreciation plus a 3.7% dividend rather than a re-rating.
- 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint of $6.68 compounding near 6% implies roughly $8.9 by 2031.
- Holding today's 17.4x trailing multiple on that path supports a mid-$150s share price.
- Cross-check: ~$134bn equity plus ~$120bn net debtnet debtTotal debt minus cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry on ~$22bn EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry holds near today's 11.25x.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-17 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-30 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-08 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 99.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-26 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-08 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-29 | 97.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-04 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-30 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-16 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-02 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 99.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-20 | 99.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-13 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-18 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-08 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-13 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-30 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-17 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-26 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-04 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 98.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-26 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-21 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-16 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-08 | 91.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 88.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-03 | 93.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-07 | 93.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 99.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-03 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-25 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-11 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-20 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-10 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-19 | 98.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-13 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-08 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-25 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 98.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-30 | 88.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-03 | 90.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-16 | 91.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-29 | 89.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-21 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-25 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-03 | 90.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 88.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-11 | 91.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 95.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-02 | 85.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 89.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-24 | 87.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-10 | 88.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-28 | 91.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 93.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-15 | 97.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 99.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 96.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-01 | 96.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-14 | 91.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-27 | 91.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 95.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-24 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-06 | 96.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-14 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 99.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-28 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-05 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 99.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-19 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-23 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-14 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-09 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-17 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-09 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-13 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-26 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-17 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-16 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-18 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-09 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-01 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-05 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-27 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-31 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-17 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-18 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-26 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-08 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-21 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-08 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-16 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-04 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-30 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-03 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-08 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-11 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-19 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-13 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-22 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-08 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-04 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-17 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-08 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-21 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-11 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 118 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 117 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 123 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 125 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 127 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 130 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 132 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 134 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 136 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 138 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 140 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 142 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 145 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 146 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 149 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 151 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 152 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 154 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry and the capital plan move in the same direction. Disinflation during 2028-2029 pulls the ten-year below 4%, restoring the yield bid just as the February 2027 plan refresh adds the flagged $5-10 billion of Indiana and Florida large-load capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry. Higher rate base then compounds against a lower cost of capitalcost of capitalCost of capital is the required return investors demand to fund a business, project, or asset, reflecting risk and financing mix.View full glossary entry, earned ROEreturn on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period.View full glossary entry reaches the 10.3% sharing band, and the multiple expands toward 20x. Price appreciation compounds near double digits, with the dividend on top.
Bear case
The bear case needs only two things to coincide: persistent 5% long rates and a regulatory turn. Affordability backlash produces a capped data-center rate class and a sub-9.5% authorized return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period., while FFO/debt slides under 14% and forces dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry into a falling share price. Turbines and storage arrive ahead of deferred hyperscaler load, inviting prudence challenges on recovery. The bond proxybond proxyAn equity or other asset valued partly for stable income and therefore often sensitive to changes in bond yields.View full glossary entry then reprices toward 14x depressed earnings, and the dividend's growth rate — not its safety — becomes the question.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus trade treats Duke as the safest way to rent the AI boom: guaranteed rate-base growth, 100 years of dividends, and hyperscalershyperscalersVery large cloud or internet-platform operators that run computing infrastructure at global scale.View full glossary entry paying the bill. Sell-side targets near $159 assume an 18.4x multiple on 2030 of $8.64 [24]. The anchoring bias is the multiple — investors price 5-7% EPS growtheps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period.View full glossary entry as if the discount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value. had not moved to a 5% ten-year.
Alpha-gap assessment
Mildly underpriced, but for an unglamorous reason. The crowd argues about data-center gigawatts while the decisive variable is the authorized return on an earnings base compounding 9.6% annually [1] — a claim adjudicated in Raleigh and Tallahassee, not in Silicon Valley. At 17.45x trailing earnings and 1.67x book, the market embeds neither the January 2027 rate reset closing the gap between 9.58% realized and 9.8% authorized return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period., nor the $6 billion Brookfield and $2.5 billion Spire proceeds that blunt dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry [12].
Convergence catalyst
The North Carolina Commission orders and the January 2027 rate effectiveness are the trigger: they convert contested return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. into cash earnings and verify that affordability politics did not gut the settlement [14][16]. The first observable sign is Q1 2027 realized return on equityReturn on equity (ROE) measures net income generated relative to shareholders' equity over a given period. moving toward 9.8% alongside reaffirmed guidance.
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