Doximity Inc (DOCS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+64.0%
DOCS.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is arithmetical, not narrative: a cash machine retiring roughly 8% of itself annually versus an attention franchise being rented out from under it for free. The base case resolves it in favour of arithmetic, but only modestly. Revenue grinds at mid-single digits as OpenEvidence caps pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry, while AI spend crests and adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry margin recovers toward the high forties. The physician graph holds because verified reach and brand safety are what pharma actually buys. Investors earn compounding ownership of a maturing franchise, not a growth re-rating.
- FY2027 guidance of USD 671-681m revenue and USD 309-329m adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. implies roughly 13.5x EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry.
- A 6% free-cash-flow yield plus 8% share retirement compounds per-share value near 10% annually at a flat multiple.
- Cross-check: USD 43 by 2031 requires about 16x earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. on modestly higher earnings — no heroic re-rating.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-02 | 77.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-14 | 75.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-22 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-11 | 76.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-23 | 57.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 50.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-25 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-06 | 46.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 42.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-07 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-03 | 56.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-15 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-12 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 50.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 31.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-18 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-03 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-11 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 40.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-02 | 43.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 37.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-21 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-06 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-08 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 39.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-10 | 31.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-06 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-30 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-23 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-13 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-06 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-10 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-28 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-06 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 19.86 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-16 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-29 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-31 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 27.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-12 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-20 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-25 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-11 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-04 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-28 | 28.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-10 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-22 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 26.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-24 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-02 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-26 | 41.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-23 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-13 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-25 | 58.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 50.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-26 | 55.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 79.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 77.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 64.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 65.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 58.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 50.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 56.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-10 | 59.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 53.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-07 | 58.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-15 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 61.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 63.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 59.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 57.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 67.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 67.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 72.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-27 | 74.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-01 | 70.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-21 | 67.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-06 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-18 | 47.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 43.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-05 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 41.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-10 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-11 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-23 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-09 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 19.38 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-02 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-22 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-26 | 20.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-29 | 26.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 26.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 26.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 25.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 26.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 26.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 28.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 29.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 30.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 29.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 31.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 32.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 33.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 34.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 35.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 37.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 37.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 36.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 38.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 39.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 40.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 41.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 42.8 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when Doximity proves the AI spend bought inventory, not merely parity. Monetized AI Search at point-of-care CPMs re-accelerates revenue to double digits just as enacted DTC restrictions push consumer budgets into the compliant professional channel. Margin recovery then compounds with a shrinking floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry, and the terminal-decay discount the market applies today inverts into a growth multiplegrowth multipleGrowth multiple is a valuation premium assigned to businesses expected to sustain faster expansion than peers or the broader market.View full glossary entry. That combination — monetization plus regulatory reallocation — would justify a materially higher share price than the base path.
Bear case
The bear case activates when deceleration crosses into contraction. Free clinician tools from OpenEvidence and general-purpose labs capture the high-intent impression, pharma reallocates spend to the cheaper channel, and Doximity must defend by spending more on AI whose inference costs already sit in cost of revenue. Gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry compresses while revenue flattens, buybacks shrink as cash is preserved, and the market reprices from maturity to decay. At that point even a 6% cash yield fails to support the shares.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that Doximity is a melting ice cube: a free, venture-subsidised rival captured the point-of-care moment, so 5% growth is the ceiling and margins only compress from here. Sell-side downgrades explicitly frame AI as the cheaper substitute [7]. Anchoring runs off the USD 76.51 high and the USD 17.15 low, leaving USD 26 treated as fair value for terminal stagnation.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares. At roughly 13.5x guided FY2027 EV/adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations., with USD 688m of cash and securities and an 8% net buyback yield, the price embeds approximately zero long-run growth and margin erosion. Two pieces of evidence are being ignored: the GAAP earnings collapse is a discretionary R&D and stock-compensation decision, not revenue impairment [4], and the DTC crackdown reallocates promotional budget toward compliant physician channels rather than shrinking it [21][24]. The offset, genuine and priced-in only partly, is terminal-value erosion.
Convergence catalyst
The early-November 2026 Q2 FY2027 print is the first test: guidance of USD 170-171m sets a low bar the company beat by USD 5m last quarter. The observable repricing signal is GAAP gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. stabilizing above 85% while R&D growth decelerates below revenue growth.
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