DoorDash, Inc. (DASH.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+78.8%
DASH.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The evidence points one way: DoorDash's cash engine compounds while reported earnings stay buried under Deliveroo purchase accounting and a $1.2-1.3B compensation bill. Ex-Deliveroo GOV grew 23% in Q2 2026 with EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry/GOV climbing to 2.8%, and the marginal order costs almost nothing incremental to serve. The base case assumes GOV roughly doubles by 2031, /GOV approaches 4.5%, and repurchases steadily shrink the count. The 2026 de-rating was a discount-rate event; reversal requires only that long rates stop rising, not that anything improves.
- FY2026 earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. near $3.7B on guidance implies roughly 23x EV/, against 45x trailing.
- Sustained mid-teens GOV growth with 4%-plus earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges./GOV supports roughly $10B by 2031.
- Twenty times that earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. across a shrinking share count roughly doubles per-share value from $193.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 210 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-19 | 221 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 200 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-21 | 219 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-06 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-14 | 244 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 188 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-05 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-02 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-22 | 93.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-26 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 76.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-22 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-03 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-11 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-21 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-29 | 77.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-14 | 58.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-26 | 72.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 77.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-28 | 70.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-05 | 80.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 68.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 58.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 64.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-30 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 44.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-01 | 45.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-13 | 62.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 57.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 55.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 48.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-24 | 59.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-09 | 61.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-13 | 53.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 59.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-29 | 59.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-02 | 63.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-26 | 57.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 62.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-16 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-01 | 67.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 73.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 73.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 84.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 90.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-04 | 83.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-24 | 76.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 84.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-05 | 83.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 80.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 73.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-27 | 70.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-04 | 91.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-24 | 93.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 97.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-18 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-30 | 98.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 93.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-12 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-07 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-27 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-12 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-24 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-22 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-30 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-07 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-25 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-07 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-17 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-18 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 179 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-16 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-20 | 171 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-05 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-14 | 213 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-15 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-05 | 205 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-09 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-29 | 205 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 218 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-14 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-30 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-16 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-28 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-09 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-21 | 245 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-02 | 244 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-14 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-26 | 262 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 281 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-12 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-01 | 250 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 238 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-19 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-27 | 233 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 208 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-13 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-18 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-22 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-12 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-28 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 156 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 185 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-07 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-23 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-27 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-28 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 203 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 188 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 193 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 193 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 187 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 197 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 210 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 219 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 230 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 236 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 248 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 238 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 255 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 265 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 273 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 284 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 293 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 278 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 295 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 307 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 316 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 325 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 335 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 345 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when two clocks align: Dot proving sub-human cost per delivery across several metros while the 10-year retreats toward 3.5%. Cheaper fulfilment lifts contribution margin per order, which funds lower consumer fees, which lifts frequency, which deepens courier and robot density — a genuine reflexive loop. Falling rates then apply a higher multiple to visibly faster cash-flow compounding. Investors would own automation economics purchased at a logistics-marketplace multiple.
Bear case
The bear case activates when regulation and competition arrive together. A binding state reclassification converts variable courier cost into fixed payroll just as a well-capitalized entrant or commission caps force take ratestake rateThe percentage of total transaction value that a platform keeps as revenue.View full glossary entry lower. Contribution margin per order compresses from both ends, the earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges./GOV ladder stalls near 3%, and the buyback becomes an expensive defence of a falling multiple. With rates still restrictive, a growth company without margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry loses its entire valuation premium.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd has stopped arguing about the business and started arguing about the price. Sell-side stayed overwhelmingly constructive through the drawdown, 27 Buys and eight Outperforms with a $248 mean target against a $166 price in May [3], while the tape fell 22% over twelve months [2]. The anchoring bias is the 101x trailing P/E, which media treat as settled evidence of overvaluation while ignoring that forward EV/earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. sits near 22x.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, and the blind spot is an accounting one. Trailing metrics carry roughly $450M of acquired-intangible amortization and $1.2-1.3B of stock compensation [6], producing a 101x P/E that bears quote and bulls cannot refute quickly. Strip Deliveroo purchase accounting and the same enterprise trades near 22x guided 2026 earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. while ex-Deliveroo GOV compounds at 23% [6]. The offsetting truth: that compensation is real cash cost to owners, so the gap is meaningful, not enormous.
Convergence catalyst
The Q4 2026 print in February 2027 is the pivot. Headline growth drops to the low-twenties as Deliveroo laps, and reported free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry absorbs a $700-800M merchant-payment timing effect [12]. The first repricing sign is earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges./GOV holding above 3% while the growth scare sells off.
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