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QBTS.NYSE
D-Wave Quantum
Information Technology · Electronic Equipment & Instruments

Quantum computing company commercializing annealing and gate-model quantum systems, software, and enterprise quantum applications.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for D-Wave Quantum.

Historical AI ConsensusHistorical AI Opinions

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The tension is simple and unresolved: D-Wave will almost certainly survive, and its shares can still fall hard. Cash of USD 546.2m and a 0.05 debt-to-equity ratio remove solvency from the debate, while the CHIPS agreement subsidises part of the roadmap. But this is lumpy capital-equipment revenue dressed as a growth curve — H1 2026 fell 67% to USD 5.9m — priced near 500x trailing sales. The base case has revenue compounding toward nine figures by 2031 while the sales multiple compresses faster and issuance absorbs much of what remains.

  • Base case: fiscal 2031 revenue near USD 140m, still loss-making, versus USD 12.4m trailing today.
  • At roughly 25x forward sales that implies about USD 3.5bn equity value against USD 6.35bn now.
  • Spread across an estimated 480m diluted shares, per-share value settles below the USD 17.11 anchor.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-3.838.9621.7534.5347.32Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-179.77
Observed price2021-09-299.76
Observed price2021-10-079.80
Observed price2021-10-119.79
Observed price2021-10-319.82
Observed price2021-11-129.82
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Observed price2022-01-119.82
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Observed price2024-09-090.84
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Observed price2024-12-269.90
Observed price2025-01-079.55
Observed price2025-01-115.12
Observed price2025-01-275.58
Observed price2025-02-126.04
Observed price2025-02-207.39
Observed price2025-03-085.00
Observed price2025-03-125.82
Observed price2025-03-1610.84
Observed price2025-04-216.24
Observed price2025-04-257.53
Observed price2025-05-076.89
Observed price2025-05-1913.15
Observed price2025-05-2318.80
Observed price2025-06-1215.88
Observed price2025-06-2814.23
Observed price2025-07-0616.77
Observed price2025-07-1415.83
Observed price2025-07-1818.89
Observed price2025-08-1117.37
Observed price2025-08-1915.32
Observed price2025-08-2715.23
Observed price2025-09-1618.98
Observed price2025-09-2825.8
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Observed price2025-11-0729.5
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Observed price2025-12-0121.4
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Observed price2025-12-2926.1
Observed price2026-01-0631.3
Observed price2026-01-1827.9
Observed price2026-02-0720.9
Observed price2026-02-1119.64
Observed price2026-02-2318.05
Observed price2026-03-1118.91
Observed price2026-03-2713.90
Observed price2026-04-0414.23
Observed price2026-04-2021.7
Observed price2026-04-2818.11
Observed price2026-05-0623.8
Observed price2026-05-1819.06
Observed price2026-05-3029.8
Observed price2026-06-1526.3
Observed price2026-06-2723.1
Observed price2026-07-0522.6
Observed price2026-07-1716.73
Observed price2026-07-2916.18
Observed price2026-08-1421.2
Observed price2026-08-2219.82
Observed price2026-09-1116.80
Observed price2026-09-1516.41
Observed price2026-09-2117.70
Observed price2026-09-2517.41
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1817.11
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1815.74
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1817.32
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1815.58
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1817.45
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1816.06
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1815.25
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1816.48
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1815.49
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1814.40
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1815.27
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1814.50
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1815.52
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1814.59
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1814.00
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1814.70
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1813.97
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1814.53
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1813.80
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1814.22
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1813.65

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when hardware finally meets a purchase order cadence. If both Q4 annealing systems are recognised, the 17-qubit dual-rail ships on time and a 49-qubit demonstration lands in 2027, the lumpy-revenue objection dissolves into a visible rhythm of USD 20–40m machines. Recurring system sales would justify re-rating on forward rather than trailing sales, CHIPS milestones would fund the next tranche without punitive , and index and momentum flows would compound the move.

Bear case

The bear case activates when a milestone slips into a closed funding window. A Q4 delivery pushed into 2027, followed by a Quantum Circuits write-down against USD 250k of contributed revenue, would strip the dual-platform premium precisely as burn approaches USD 45m a quarter. Management would then issue equity into weakness, with Commerce's registered 7.1m-share block overhanging the tape. and reinforce each other, and the 52-week low stops functioning as a floor.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief: quantum is the next AI trade, and Washington just certified it. Sixteen analysts carry an average USD 35.24 target — roughly double the market — and BMO initiated at Outperform citing first-mover edge and dual-technology optionality [21][22]. The anchor is the USD 46.75 fifty-two-week high, not the USD 12.4m of trailing revenue beneath it.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd overestimates these shares; they are overpriced. The overlooked evidence is not the multiple — everyone concedes roughly 500x sales — but the composition of the bookings justifying it. The 1,120% H1 bookings surge is essentially one USD 20m university order, and remaining performance obligations actually fell sequentially to USD 40.7m [7][9][10]. Third-party models implying about USD 200m of 2029 revenue demand a sixteenfold increase from a base that shrank 67% in H1 2026 [23]. That is extrapolation wearing a forecast's clothes.

Convergence catalyst

The March 2027 fiscal-2026 filing is the test. Management loaded the majority of 2026 revenue into Q4 on two annealing deliveries whose recognition may carry into 2027 [5][11]. The first observable sign of repricing is a November Q3 print confirming slippage, followed by disclosed ATM issuance against the January shelf.

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