Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+68.9%
AXON.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Axon's enterprise compounds faster than its per-share value. BacklogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry of $15.1 billion and 39% ARR growtharr growthThe increase in annual recurring revenue over a specified period.View full glossary entry make revenue near-contractual, but roughly $600 million of annual stock compensation, serial acquisitions and a fresh $1.0 billion convertible siphon a large share of that growth before it reaches shareholders. The base case assumes revenue compounds in the low-to-mid twenties from an FY2026 level near $3.7 billion, adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry margin drifts toward 30%, inventory unwinds from 2027 and the multiple continues to compress slowly. Result: solid appreciation driven by earnings, not re-rating.
- FY2026 revenue near $3.7 billion at 25.5% adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. implies roughly $940 million, my estimate.
- Deducting guided stock compensation leaves about $335 million, over 110x enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry today.
- By 2031, roughly $10 billion revenue and $1.5 billion cash earnings supports a $55-60 billion market value.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-14 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-22 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-03 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-15 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 87.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-25 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-29 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-22 | 86.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-12 | 93.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-24 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-02 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-17 | 192 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-21 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 171 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 192 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-01 | 198 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-09 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-25 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-05 | 221 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-02 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 228 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-30 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-24 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-01 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-29 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-04 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-08 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 213 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-09 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 192 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-27 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-08 | 230 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-06 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 238 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-26 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 248 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 257 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 249 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 270 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 265 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-03 | 317 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-23 | 317 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 307 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 311 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 328 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-22 | 285 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-03 | 278 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 293 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 289 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-05 | 299 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-21 | 314 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 318 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 373 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-03 | 355 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 390 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 394 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 435 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 428 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 460 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-10 | 599 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 653 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 680 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-20 | 618 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 614 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 569 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 605 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 680 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 710 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 499 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 515 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 565 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 503 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-15 | 578 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 600 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 736 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-29 | 730 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 792 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 771 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 802 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 790 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-24 | 709 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 742 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-05 | 867 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 764 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-06 | 729 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-22 | 777 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-26 | 713 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-16 | 658 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-28 | 754 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 647 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 521 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 533 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-19 | 594 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-31 | 569 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 632 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 636 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 422 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-17 | 432 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-01 | 561 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 570 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 460 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 427 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-10 | 353 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 419 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-12 | 386 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-24 | 387 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-05 | 486 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 413 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 537 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-07 | 640 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-23 | 492 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-27 | 525 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-04 | 607 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-20 | 614 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 490 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 487 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 445 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 430 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 448 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 466 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 442 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 469 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 492 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 512 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 492 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 521 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 547 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 569 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 586 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 610 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 628 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 653 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 633 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 659 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 678 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 699 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 713 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 734 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 756 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when cash arrives and rates retreat at the same time. Inventory normalisation from 2027 converts adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. into visible free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry, which validates the software mix shift, which in turn justifies a premium multiple just as falling Treasury yields reduce the discount applied to 2030 earnings. Add one large Axon 911 statewide win and counter-drone becoming a federal programme of record, and the compounding narrative returns with cash-flow proof attached. Shares outrun earnings substantially.
Bear case
The bear case begins the quarter inventory stops being the excuse. If conversion stays below 8% of revenue while memory costs bite and normalised bookings decelerate toward the high teens, investors reclassify Axon from compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry to capital-hungry hardware integrator. Statutory ALPR restrictions then remove the fastest-growing software cohort, goodwill from Carbyne and Prepared faces scrutiny, and dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry keeps growing the share count. A reset toward five times sales follows, and the de-rating overwhelms revenue growth.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats Axon as a broken momentum trade rather than a broken business: down 27% year to date and roughly 45% from its 2025 high, with sell-side targets still scattered between $600 and $825 [8][30]. The anchoring bias is the old 20x-sales print. Bulls recite $15.1 billion of backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.; bears recite 0.36% free-cash-flow yield. Both are pricing narrative, not conversion.
Alpha-gap assessment
Modest underpricing, with an important caveat. The crowd has correctly punished the cash-flow gap but is conflating two distinct problems: a working-capital build that management says moderates after 2026 [10], and stock-based compensation near $600 million that does not [11]. The first is temporary and reverses into cash; the second is permanent and belongs in owner earningsowner earningsAn estimate of cash available to owners after operating costs, taxes, and the capital spending needed to maintain competitive capacity.View full glossary entry. Markets that de-rate for the reversible drag while backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. compounds 41% [4] create the gap. It is narrow, not gaping.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 cash-flow statements, reported February and May 2027. A free-cash-flow print exceeding 10% of revenue alongside reiterated 30%-plus growth would convert the adjusted-EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry story into verified cash. The first sign of repricing is multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry on an in-line revenue quarter.
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