AvePoint Inc (AVPT.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+85.6%
AVPT.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is an accelerating operating engine reported through a deliberately muddied income statement. Net new ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry grows 35% while reported revenue is taxed by FX, excluded services and flat term licences, so clean beats produce drawdowns. Base case: FX dragfx dragNegative impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations on reported financial results.View full glossary entry annualizes, margin re-expands after the disclosed 2026 investment year, and net retention grinds from 110% toward the mid-teens without fully hitting 115%. approaches but does not comfortably clear $1 billion by 2029, while relentless buybacks do the per-share work a stubborn multiple will not.
- annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. compounds near 21% to roughly $1.05 billion by 2030, with free-cash-flow margin approaching 25%.
- Five times forward sales plus net cash supports equity value near $5.2 billion at horizon.
- Across roughly 195 million shares after repurchases, that implies mid-twenties dollars per share by 2031.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 9.91 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 8.32 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 8.47 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 9.32 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 9.49 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-22 | 7.04 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 7.09 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 6.30 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 6.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 6.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 5.31 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 6.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-26 | 5.54 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 5.03 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-18 | 5.94 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-26 | 5.42 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 4.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 4.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 4.31 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-13 | 4.79 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-02 | 6.03 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 6.00 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-14 | 4.93 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 4.34 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-08 | 4.97 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-24 | 4.85 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-05 | 5.37 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 5.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 4.23 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 4.64 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 4.00 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 4.13 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 3.64 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-05 | 3.82 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-17 | 4.75 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 4.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-03 | 4.89 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 4.39 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-31 | 4.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 4.19 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 4.48 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-05 | 4.91 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 4.75 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-05 | 5.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 4.04 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 4.15 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-25 | 3.97 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-26 | 4.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 4.40 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 4.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 6.39 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-05 | 6.72 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 6.01 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 5.59 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 5.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-08 | 5.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 6.13 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 6.85 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-05 | 6.85 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-21 | 6.60 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 6.46 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 7.49 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-27 | 7.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 8.17 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-20 | 8.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-06 | 8.12 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 8.06 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-18 | 8.45 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 7.78 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-11 | 8.16 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 7.70 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 8.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 7.97 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-03 | 7.59 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 7.55 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 8.03 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 8.18 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 7.71 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 8.04 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-22 | 9.35 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-07 | 9.04 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-11 | 9.25 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 9.83 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 10.30 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-29 | 10.93 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 10.24 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 9.94 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 10.92 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-30 | 11.55 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 11.98 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-01 | 11.54 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 12.39 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-25 | 11.96 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 13.09 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-10 | 15.43 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-22 | 18.57 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 18.75 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-24 | 17.80 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 16.30 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 17.21 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 17.42 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-10 | 19.61 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 19.61 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 14.55 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 13.50 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 15.18 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 13.54 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-23 | 15.10 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 16.10 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-13 | 19.99 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-21 | 18.32 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 19.56 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-22 | 18.21 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-30 | 19.31 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-12 | 18.04 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-20 | 19.11 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 17.95 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-09 | 14.46 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 15.29 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-06 | 16.37 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 15.96 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-30 | 15.01 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-16 | 14.00 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-24 | 14.90 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 14.28 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-09 | 12.47 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 12.88 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-11 | 14.01 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-31 | 13.89 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-04 | 13.43 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 12.68 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 10.16 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 10.88 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-25 | 10.23 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 11.29 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 9.68 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-10 | 8.99 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-18 | 10.05 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-30 | 9.75 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 11.40 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-16 | 10.00 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 11.52 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 10.08 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 11.07 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-03 | 11.61 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-19 | 13.23 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-27 | 12.81 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-04 | 13.50 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-28 | 14.00 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 12.96 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-17 | 13.52 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 13.10 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 13.00 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 13.19 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 13.59 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 13.04 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 13.96 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 14.51 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 15.24 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 15.70 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 16.48 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 15.66 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 16.91 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 17.76 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 18.47 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 19.20 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 20.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 19.36 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 20.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 21.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 22.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 22.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 23.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 24.5 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when expansion revenue finally shows up in the retention line. Net retention clears 115% as AgentPulse sells standalone and Control bundles attach, which simultaneously cuts customer-acquisition intensity, pulls the 27.5% margin target forward, and validates the $1 billion annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. framework early. Non-Microsoft mix crossing 20% then reframes AvePoint as an independent governance layer rather than a platform tenant, earning a multiple premium. Growth, margin and re-rating compound together toward the high twenties per share.
Bear case
The bear case activates if Microsoft extends native governance while gross retention stays stuck at 89%. New-logo growth then has to replace churn before it can create growth, sales efficiency deteriorates, and the promised margin re-expansion slips another year. Reported revenue growth falls under 15%, the $1 billion annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. framework is quietly retired, and the market reprices a decelerating platform-dependent vendor toward three times sales. Buybacks cushion per-share arithmetic but cannot rescue a broken narrative.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus reads AvePoint as a competent Microsoft-attached compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry whose ceiling is set by its landlord. Sell-side targets cluster at $14-16, implying single-digit to low-twenties upside [7]: constructive, not euphoric. The settled assumption is that reported revenue growth, not annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items., is the truth, which is why a clean Q2 beat with $0.12 against $0.08 still produced an 8.7% drawdown [8][6]. Anchoring runs on guidance deltas.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underprices these shares. It anchors on reported revenue, which FX translation ($5.6 million), excluded services and flat term licences depress, while the leading indicator accelerates: record net new annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. of $29.9 million, up 35% [3][11]. Simultaneously the headline 40.8x trailing PE is inflated by a $19.9 million valuation-allowance release, so the honest anchors are 6.25x sales and a 3.46% free-cash-flow yield [1]. Both readings are wrong in opposite directions; net, cash generation and floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry shrinkage are underweighted.
Convergence catalyst
Recognition hinges on net retention. The first observable repricing sign is a guidance raise expressed in reported dollars rather than constant currency, most plausibly with 2027 results as FX comparisons annualize and Control-bundle attach converts into expansion revenue. Watch quarterly net retention crossing 113%.
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