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AVPT.NASDAQ
AvePoint
Information Technology · Application Software

Cloud data management software company protecting Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, Salesforce, and collaboration environments.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for AvePoint.

AvePoint Inc (AVPT.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is an accelerating operating engine reported through a deliberately muddied income statement. Net new grows 35% while reported revenue is taxed by FX, excluded services and flat term licences, so clean beats produce drawdowns. Base case: annualizes, margin re-expands after the disclosed 2026 investment year, and net retention grinds from 110% toward the mid-teens without fully hitting 115%. approaches but does not comfortably clear $1 billion by 2029, while relentless buybacks do the per-share work a stubborn multiple will not.

  • compounds near 21% to roughly $1.05 billion by 2030, with free-cash-flow margin approaching 25%.
  • Five times forward sales plus net cash supports equity value near $5.2 billion at horizon.
  • Across roughly 195 million shares after repurchases, that implies mid-twenties dollars per share by 2031.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.1.567.8114.0620.3226.57Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-159.91
Observed price2021-10-058.32
Observed price2021-10-178.47
Observed price2021-10-299.32
Observed price2021-11-029.49
Observed price2021-11-227.04
Observed price2021-11-267.09
Observed price2021-12-166.30
Observed price2021-12-246.47
Observed price2022-01-096.10
Observed price2022-01-136.20
Observed price2022-01-255.31
Observed price2022-02-106.19
Observed price2022-02-265.54
Observed price2022-03-145.03
Observed price2022-03-185.94
Observed price2022-03-265.42
Observed price2022-04-074.96
Observed price2022-04-194.96
Observed price2022-05-094.31
Observed price2022-05-134.79
Observed price2022-06-026.03
Observed price2022-06-066.00
Observed price2022-06-144.93
Observed price2022-06-304.34
Observed price2022-07-084.97
Observed price2022-07-244.85
Observed price2022-08-055.37
Observed price2022-08-175.10
Observed price2022-09-064.23
Observed price2022-09-104.64
Observed price2022-09-264.00
Observed price2022-10-044.13
Observed price2022-10-123.64
Observed price2022-11-053.82
Observed price2022-11-174.75
Observed price2022-11-294.61
Observed price2022-12-034.89
Observed price2022-12-154.39
Observed price2022-12-314.14
Observed price2023-01-084.19
Observed price2023-01-284.48
Observed price2023-02-054.91
Observed price2023-02-214.75
Observed price2023-03-055.11
Observed price2023-03-174.04
Observed price2023-03-214.15
Observed price2023-03-253.97
Observed price2023-04-264.14
Observed price2023-05-044.40
Observed price2023-05-084.43
Observed price2023-05-286.39
Observed price2023-06-056.72
Observed price2023-06-216.01
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Observed price2023-07-155.87
Observed price2023-07-316.20
Observed price2023-08-085.87
Observed price2023-08-126.13
Observed price2023-09-016.85
Observed price2023-09-056.85
Observed price2023-09-216.60
Observed price2023-10-036.46
Observed price2023-10-117.49
Observed price2023-10-277.30
Observed price2023-11-128.17
Observed price2023-11-208.43
Observed price2023-12-068.12
Observed price2023-12-108.06
Observed price2023-12-188.45
Observed price2024-01-037.78
Observed price2024-01-118.16
Observed price2024-01-317.70
Observed price2024-02-168.00
Observed price2024-02-207.97
Observed price2024-03-037.59
Observed price2024-03-157.55
Observed price2024-04-048.03
Observed price2024-04-088.18
Observed price2024-04-207.71
Observed price2024-05-028.04
Observed price2024-05-229.35
Observed price2024-06-079.04
Observed price2024-06-119.25
Observed price2024-06-199.83
Observed price2024-07-0110.30
Observed price2024-07-2910.93
Observed price2024-08-0210.24
Observed price2024-08-069.94
Observed price2024-08-1810.92
Observed price2024-08-3011.55
Observed price2024-09-1911.98
Observed price2024-10-0111.54
Observed price2024-10-1312.39
Observed price2024-10-2511.96
Observed price2024-11-0613.09
Observed price2024-11-1015.43
Observed price2024-11-2218.57
Observed price2024-12-0418.75
Observed price2024-12-2417.80
Observed price2025-01-1316.30
Observed price2025-01-1717.21
Observed price2025-01-2117.42
Observed price2025-02-1019.61
Observed price2025-02-1819.61
Observed price2025-03-0614.55
Observed price2025-03-1013.50
Observed price2025-03-2215.18
Observed price2025-04-0713.54
Observed price2025-04-2315.10
Observed price2025-04-2716.10
Observed price2025-05-1319.99
Observed price2025-05-2118.32
Observed price2025-06-0619.56
Observed price2025-06-2218.21
Observed price2025-06-3019.31
Observed price2025-07-1218.04
Observed price2025-07-2019.11
Observed price2025-08-0117.95
Observed price2025-08-0914.46
Observed price2025-08-2515.29
Observed price2025-09-0616.37
Observed price2025-09-1815.96
Observed price2025-09-3015.01
Observed price2025-10-1614.00
Observed price2025-10-2414.90
Observed price2025-11-0514.28
Observed price2025-11-0912.47
Observed price2025-11-2912.88
Observed price2025-12-1114.01
Observed price2025-12-3113.89
Observed price2026-01-0413.43
Observed price2026-01-1612.68
Observed price2026-02-0510.16
Observed price2026-02-0910.88
Observed price2026-02-2510.23
Observed price2026-03-0511.29
Observed price2026-03-259.68
Observed price2026-04-108.99
Observed price2026-04-1810.05
Observed price2026-04-309.75
Observed price2026-05-0811.40
Observed price2026-05-1610.00
Observed price2026-06-0111.52
Observed price2026-06-2110.08
Observed price2026-06-2911.07
Observed price2026-07-0311.61
Observed price2026-07-1913.23
Observed price2026-07-2712.81
Observed price2026-08-0413.50
Observed price2026-08-2814.00
Observed price2026-09-0912.96
Observed price2026-09-1713.52
Observed price2026-09-2213.10
Observed price2026-09-2513.00
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1813.19
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1813.59
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1813.04
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1813.96
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1814.51
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1815.24
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1815.70
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1816.48
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1815.66
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1816.91
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1817.76
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1818.47
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1819.20
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1820.2
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1819.36
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1820.5
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1821.3
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1822.2
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1822.9
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1823.8
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1824.5

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when expansion revenue finally shows up in the retention line. Net retention clears 115% as AgentPulse sells standalone and Control bundles attach, which simultaneously cuts customer-acquisition intensity, pulls the 27.5% margin target forward, and validates the $1 billion framework early. Non-Microsoft mix crossing 20% then reframes AvePoint as an independent governance layer rather than a platform tenant, earning a multiple premium. Growth, margin and re-rating compound together toward the high twenties per share.

Bear case

The bear case activates if Microsoft extends native governance while gross retention stays stuck at 89%. New-logo growth then has to replace churn before it can create growth, sales efficiency deteriorates, and the promised margin re-expansion slips another year. Reported revenue growth falls under 15%, the $1 billion framework is quietly retired, and the market reprices a decelerating platform-dependent vendor toward three times sales. Buybacks cushion per-share arithmetic but cannot rescue a broken narrative.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus reads AvePoint as a competent Microsoft-attached whose ceiling is set by its landlord. Sell-side targets cluster at $14-16, implying single-digit to low-twenties upside [7]: constructive, not euphoric. The settled assumption is that reported revenue growth, not , is the truth, which is why a clean Q2 beat with $0.12 against $0.08 still produced an 8.7% drawdown [8][6]. Anchoring runs on guidance deltas.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underprices these shares. It anchors on reported revenue, which FX translation ($5.6 million), excluded services and flat term licences depress, while the leading indicator accelerates: record net new of $29.9 million, up 35% [3][11]. Simultaneously the headline 40.8x trailing PE is inflated by a $19.9 million valuation-allowance release, so the honest anchors are 6.25x sales and a 3.46% free-cash-flow yield [1]. Both readings are wrong in opposite directions; net, cash generation and shrinkage are underweighted.

Convergence catalyst

Recognition hinges on net retention. The first observable repricing sign is a guidance raise expressed in reported dollars rather than constant currency, most plausibly with 2027 results as FX comparisons annualize and Control-bundle attach converts into expansion revenue. Watch quarterly net retention crossing 113%.

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