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AZN.LSE
AstraZeneca
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals

British-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company developing treatments for cancer, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases.

HQ: United KingdomListed: United Kingdom

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for AstraZeneca.

Historical AI ConsensusHistorical AI Opinions

AstraZeneca plc (AZN.LSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is straightforward: a company whose core earnings compound at low double digits trades as though its pipeline has stalled. Two 2026 Phase III failures triggered a 20% derating, yet H1 revenue still grew 6% with guidance reconfirmed [3][4]. The base case assumes AstraZeneca reaches roughly USD 74-78bn of revenue by 2030 — short of the USD 80bn ambition — with tozorakimab and Baxfendy scaling into a fixed research base while MFN pricing and the 2029-2031 biosimilar cliff cap the . Investors are paid to wait through a policy fog that clears slowly rather than dramatically.

  • TTM revenue USD 61.3bn and reconfirmed low-double-digit core support mid-teens core by 2031.
  • At roughly 18x core earnings versus 25x reported, the multiple already discounts most MFN erosion.
  • USD 261bn market capitalisation against a USD 80bn 2030 revenue target implies about 3.3x forward sales.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in GBX.7.07K10.05K13.02K15.99K18.97KSep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in GBX.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (GBX)
Observed price2021-09-178,063
Observed price2021-10-078,877
Observed price2021-10-198,739
Observed price2021-10-319,261
Observed price2021-11-049,443
Observed price2021-11-208,412
Observed price2021-12-108,193
Observed price2021-12-188,480
Observed price2021-12-308,673
Observed price2022-01-078,351
Observed price2022-01-198,785
Observed price2022-02-048,356
Observed price2022-02-088,356
Observed price2022-02-289,167
Observed price2022-03-048,853
Observed price2022-03-249,787
Observed price2022-03-289,995
Observed price2022-04-0910,824
Observed price2022-05-0310,684
Observed price2022-05-1110,026
Observed price2022-05-2310,600
Observed price2022-06-0410,199
Observed price2022-06-169,760
Observed price2022-06-2810,786
Observed price2022-07-1011,104
Observed price2022-07-2210,766
Observed price2022-07-2611,020
Observed price2022-08-1110,506
Observed price2022-08-1911,250
Observed price2022-09-0810,450
Observed price2022-09-1210,371
Observed price2022-09-249,934
Observed price2022-10-229,719
Observed price2022-10-2610,034
Observed price2022-10-3010,235
Observed price2022-11-1910,942
Observed price2022-11-2310,996
Observed price2022-12-0911,354
Observed price2022-12-1711,234
Observed price2023-01-0611,717
Observed price2023-01-1011,685
Observed price2023-01-3010,598
Observed price2023-02-0310,333
Observed price2023-02-1911,496
Observed price2023-02-2710,935
Observed price2023-03-1110,695
Observed price2023-03-2311,028
Observed price2023-04-1211,773
Observed price2023-04-2412,267
Observed price2023-05-0211,774
Observed price2023-05-2212,028
Observed price2023-05-3011,498
Observed price2023-06-0711,754
Observed price2023-06-2311,422
Observed price2023-06-2711,190
Observed price2023-07-0910,096
Observed price2023-07-2510,720
Observed price2023-08-1011,162
Observed price2023-08-1411,114
Observed price2023-08-1810,658
Observed price2023-09-1110,725
Observed price2023-09-2711,085
Observed price2023-10-1311,083
Observed price2023-10-2110,432
Observed price2023-10-2510,415
Observed price2023-11-1410,169
Observed price2023-11-1810,243
Observed price2023-11-2610,026
Observed price2023-12-1610,226
Observed price2024-01-0110,684
Observed price2024-01-0910,902
Observed price2024-01-1710,446
Observed price2024-01-2910,568
Observed price2024-02-109,662
Observed price2024-02-2210,036
Observed price2024-03-1310,458
Observed price2024-03-1710,261
Observed price2024-03-2910,696
Observed price2024-04-1010,732
Observed price2024-04-3012,062
Observed price2024-05-0412,141
Observed price2024-05-2412,329
Observed price2024-05-2812,028
Observed price2024-06-0512,516
Observed price2024-06-2512,550
Observed price2024-07-0712,000
Observed price2024-07-1512,104
Observed price2024-08-0412,509
Observed price2024-08-0812,628
Observed price2024-08-2813,216
Observed price2024-09-0113,276
Observed price2024-09-2111,716
Observed price2024-09-2911,621
Observed price2024-10-1511,980
Observed price2024-10-1911,926
Observed price2024-11-089,790
Observed price2024-11-169,990
Observed price2024-12-0210,746
Observed price2024-12-0610,639
Observed price2024-12-1810,375
Observed price2024-12-3010,466
Observed price2025-01-1910,995
Observed price2025-02-0411,030
Observed price2025-02-1211,802
Observed price2025-02-2011,590
Observed price2025-03-0412,064
Observed price2025-03-1611,920
Observed price2025-04-0111,366
Observed price2025-04-0510,724
Observed price2025-04-099,667
Observed price2025-05-0310,645
Observed price2025-05-1510,176
Observed price2025-05-2310,396
Observed price2025-06-1211,030
Observed price2025-06-1610,818
Observed price2025-06-2810,132
Observed price2025-07-1810,294
Observed price2025-07-3011,498
Observed price2025-08-0710,950
Observed price2025-08-2311,978
Observed price2025-09-0412,150
Observed price2025-09-1611,405
Observed price2025-09-2811,055
Observed price2025-10-1012,886
Observed price2025-10-1412,684
Observed price2025-10-2212,485
Observed price2025-11-0712,907
Observed price2025-11-2714,061
Observed price2025-12-0113,844
Observed price2025-12-1313,460
Observed price2026-01-0213,592
Observed price2026-01-1414,346
Observed price2026-01-2213,560
Observed price2026-02-0713,934
Observed price2026-02-1114,818
Observed price2026-02-2715,542
Observed price2026-03-0714,608
Observed price2026-03-2313,742
Observed price2026-03-3114,690
Observed price2026-04-0415,283
Observed price2026-04-2413,956
Observed price2026-05-0613,322
Observed price2026-05-2213,997
Observed price2026-06-0313,210
Observed price2026-06-1513,200
Observed price2026-06-2714,180
Observed price2026-07-0514,219
Observed price2026-07-2112,492
Observed price2026-07-2913,134
Observed price2026-08-1411,460
Observed price2026-08-2612,234
Observed price2026-09-1111,708
Observed price2026-09-1512,116
Observed price2026-09-2212,672
Observed price2026-09-2512,552
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1812,500
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1813,125
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1813,650
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1814,060
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1814,481
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1814,916
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1815,065
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1815,366
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1815,827
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1815,985
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1816,305
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1815,979
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1816,458
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1816,788
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1816,284
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1816,447
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1816,940
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1817,110
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1817,281
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1817,454
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1817,977

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when tozorakimab's Q1 2027 approval arrives with a broad COPD label. Volume-driven revenue immune to MFN logic validates the launch portfolio, which restores confidence in the USD 80bn ambition, which pulls the multiple back toward 22x core earnings. Simultaneously, a formal shelving of Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs lifts the whole European pharma complex. on the fixed USD 14bn research base then converts revenue beats into outsized earnings beats, compounding the rerating.

Bear case

The bear case activates when pipeline attrition meets policy escalation. Three or four further Phase III misses across the twenty-plus readouts force withdrawal of the 2030 ambition, exposing the widening gap between flat reported earnings and management's core metric. If MFN benchmarking then extends beyond Medicaid while the Section 232 deferral lapses unrenewed around 2028, compresses just as the Tagrisso and Imfinzi biosimilar cliff arrives. and defensive premium disappear together.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus treats AstraZeneca as a broken growth story trading on hope: down 20% in six months and 11.7% year to date on pipeline setbacks [18], yet 14 of 17 analysts still rate it Buy with Goldman at 16,526p [1][13]. The anchoring bias is the USD 80bn 2030 ambition — the crowd debates whether it survives, not whether today's cash flows already justify the price.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, implying underpricing. The blind spot is composition: the market extrapolated CARDIO-TTRansform and SERENA-4 into a pipeline verdict while ignoring that H1 2026 core still grew 11% with guidance reconfirmed [3][4]. At roughly 18x core earnings, the price already discounts MFN erosion and a partial ambition miss. Soriot committing GBP 7.3m of personal capital at GBP 121.02 on 14 September [16] is the kind of corroboration that costs the insider something.

Convergence catalyst

The Q1 2027 FDA decision on tozorakimab is the trigger. A broad COPD label converts a contested pipeline narrative into a quantifiable volume franchise immune to MFN price logic. Watch the first sign in February 2027 FY results: core guidance for 2027 set above consensus.

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