Arista Networks (ANET.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+45.0%
ANET.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Arista is winning volume while conceding price. Demand is rationed by silicon supply, not by customers, so revenue should compound from the guided $12.6bn FY2026 base toward the high-twenties billions by 2031 [2][4]. But gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry has already ceded 220bps, Nvidia now leads data-centre Ethernet by revenue, and the shares start at 62.8x trailing earnings [1][14]. Earnings therefore grow faster than the stock, because the multiple must descend from roughly 47x forward toward a mature-compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry range. Investors earn the business, not the rerating.
- FY2026 revenue guided near $12.6bn; base case compounds to roughly $28-30bn by 2031 at ~38% net margin.
- That implies about $8.50 of EPS; a 30x exit multiple values the shares near $255-290.
- Cross-check: $290 equals roughly $365bn market capitalisation, about 12x 2031 sales versus 24x today.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-02 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-23 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-05 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-29 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 29.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 28.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-23 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-12 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-14 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-07 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-19 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-01 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-23 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-29 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-18 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-30 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-08 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-14 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-02 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-03 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 40.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 40.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-13 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-29 | 42.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-14 | 42.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 38.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 42.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-28 | 37.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 46.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-13 | 44.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 49.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-06 | 49.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-22 | 44.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-08 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 45.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 53.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-29 | 54.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 56.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 59.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 57.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-24 | 65.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 69.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 65.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 63.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-04 | 72.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-16 | 71.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-24 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 73.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 62.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-03 | 66.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 79.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-04 | 73.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 83.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-24 | 83.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 92.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 90.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-30 | 77.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 79.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-15 | 89.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-08 | 81.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-28 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-10 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-03 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-19 | 94.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-25 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-02 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-18 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-22 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-03 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 82.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 86.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 78.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-20 | 69.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 75.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 78.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 98.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-30 | 87.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-07 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 90.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-26 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-27 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-29 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-10 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-22 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-12 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-09 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-21 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-29 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-10 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-09 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-02 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-22 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 167 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-12 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-28 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 204 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-29 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 188 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 206 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 207 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 199 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 211 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 220 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 235 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 223 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 241 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 249 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 224 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 210 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 225 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 236 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 246 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 236 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 250 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 258 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 268 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 254 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 267 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 275 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 283 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 289 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates if the E-Sun specification lands and open Ethernet penetrates the scale-up rack, because content per accelerator then roughly doubles rather than growing with cluster count [4]. Supply easing converts the $9.7bn commitment book into shipments, a third and fourth ten-percent customer appears, and enterprise mix arrests the gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. slide [12][13]. Revenue compounds above 30% with stable margins, and the market re-rates a diversified platform rather than a hyperscaler proxy.
Bear case
The bear case activates when hyperscaler capexhyperscaler capexCapital spending by very large cloud operators on data centers, computing, networking, storage, power, and related infrastructure.View full glossary entry digestion coincides with Nvidia bundling networking into GPU purchase agreements. Orders slow while $9.7bn of purchase commitments keep running, forcing inventory absorption charges just as gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. breaks below the 62% floor [2][14]. Deferred revenue unwinds instead of building, growth halves, and a 47x forward multipleforward multipleForward multiple is a valuation ratio based on forecast earnings, sales, or cash flow rather than historical results.View full glossary entry on falling estimates collapses toward twenty-something. The balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry survives comfortably; the share price does not.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd treats Arista as the purest listed claim on Ethernet's victory in AI back-end networking, and treats beat-and-raise as a physical law: 31 analysts rate it Strong Buy at an average $241 target, guidance was lifted twice to roughly $12.6bn, and S&P 100 inclusion arrived in September [21][2][20]. The anchoring bias is recency of the guidance raises, not scrutiny of who keeps the margin.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares. The tell is buried in the Q2 detail: non-GAAP gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. fell 220bps year over year to 63.4% while operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry rose to 49.9% [1][2]. Rising operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. is masking falling pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry, and the beat is being funded by the very hyperscaler mix that erodes it. Meanwhile Nvidia took the number-one data-centre Ethernet revenue slot in four quarters [14]. At 62.8x trailing earnings, perfection is priced and the margin arithmetic is not.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the first quarter where non-GAAP gross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold. guides below the 62-64% band, or deferred revenue of $6.87bn declines sequentially. Most likely during the 2027 1.6T mix shift. The first observable repricing sign is a flat sequential revenue guide alongside an unchanged full-year number.
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