ArcelorMittal (MT.AMS) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+33.3%
Includes 0.86% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The investigation ends on a contradiction rather than a verdict of fraud. Brussels genuinely handed ArcelorMittal a structurally better European business — the quota cuts tariff-free imports 47% and doubles the penalty duty [2][3] — and the margin evidence corroborates it. But the market paid for that gift twice, moving the shares from 0.37x book in 2024 to 1.01x today while trailing free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry ran at minus $1.39bn. The base case is therefore earnings delivery without further multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry: real cash arrives as capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry rolls off after 2027, offset by the ETS cost step and cyclical European weakness.
- Annualised 1H26 EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry near $7.4bn, plus $1.6-1.8bn project potential, supports roughly $8-9bn by 2029 [11][17].
- At 6-7x EV/earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. less $9.5bn net debtTotal debt minus cash and cash equivalents., equity value sits broadly around today's $55.5bn capitalisation.
- With 764m shares shrinking around 2% annually, per-share value compounds even on a flat enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-21 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-11 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-31 | 28.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-05 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-25 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-30 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-20 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-25 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 32.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-19 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-29 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-28 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-10 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-25 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-24 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-29 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-29 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-18 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-08 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-13 | 21.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-28 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-22 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-21 | 21.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-06 | 20.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-16 | 22.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-31 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-10 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-30 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-10 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-20 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-04 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-24 | 28.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-08 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-05 | 29.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-15 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-30 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-12 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-12 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-27 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-11 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-21 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-31 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-09 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-19 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-24 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-14 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-19 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-08 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-02 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-12 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-27 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-03 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-23 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-12 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-17 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-27 | 23.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-17 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-06 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-11 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-01 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 21.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-26 | 20.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-31 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 19.16 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-30 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 20.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-29 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-24 | 22.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-29 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-08 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-13 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-22 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 22.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-05 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-20 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-17 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-01 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-06 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-11 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-26 | 27.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-31 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-20 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-10 | 29.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-20 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-04 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-19 | 29.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-29 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-03 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-23 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-28 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-12 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-17 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-27 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 38.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-06 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-26 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-31 | 47.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 56.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-25 | 56.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-17 | 45.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-27 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-11 | 51.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-06 | 53.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 59.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-15 | 59.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 52.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-14 | 58.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 58.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-03 | 64.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-18 | 62.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-07 | 67.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 62.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 63.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 62.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 61.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 63.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 59.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 61.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 63.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 60.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 63.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 65.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 64.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 65.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 67.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 69.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 65.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 63.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 65.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 68.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 70.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 71.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 73.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 76.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 78.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 80.6 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when protection meets volume. If the June 2027 downstream assessment extends CBAM to steel-containing goods and melt-and-pour becomes the primary quota criterion by 2028 [4], European spreads widen just as ECB easing and defence-infrastructure spending restore construction tonnage. Fixed costsfixed costsCosts that do not change materially with production or sales volume over a relevant range and period.View full glossary entry are already cut, so incremental volume converts at high contribution margin, capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. rolls off, free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. turns strongly positive, and accelerated buybacks compound a still-modest multiple into materially higher per-share value.
Bear case
The bear case activates when the protection premium and the carbon bill arrive in opposite directions. A renewed energy shockenergy shockA sudden disruption or price change in energy markets that affects inflation, demand, and operating costs.View full glossary entry lifting TTF above €110/MWh, coinciding with European automotive and construction contraction and the steep 2029-2030 free-allocation step [15], would compress Europe toward breakeven. With $4.5-5.0bn annual capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. and $9.5bn net debtnet debtTotal debt minus cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry, buybacks stop, removing the per-share support, and a cyclical at 1.01x book re-rates back toward 0.5x far faster than earnings decline.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats Brussels as a permanent underwriter: the 50% out-of-quota duty is read as a structural regime change, not a cyclical policy, which is why shares doubled in twelve months and rallied 4.2% on a Q2 EPS miss of $0.90 against $1.18 [1]. The anchoring bias is earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.-per-tonne: $143 versus an $89 historical average [10], extrapolated as the new floor while negative free cash flownegative free cash flowA condition where cash outflows for operations and investment exceed cash generated in the period.View full glossary entry is dismissed as seasonal.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares. The evidence chain: annualising 1H 2026 earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges. gives roughly $7.4bn, implying near 8x EV/ against a historical integrated-steel mid-cycle range of 4-6x, while price-to-book has moved from 0.37 in 2024 to 1.01 today. That premium assumes the tariff regime is permanent and free. It is neither — ETS free allocation collapses fastest between 2029 and 2030 [15], and trailing free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. is already negative $1.39bn. Earnings power improved genuinely; the multiple improved further.
Convergence catalyst
The Q3 and FY2026 results in late October and February, reported alongside 2027 capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. guidance, will test whether the protected price actually converts to free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.. Recognition begins the day buyback pace decelerates or guidance exceeds $5bn; watch the payout-versus- ratio first.
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