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MT.AMS
ArcelorMittal
Materials · Steel

Global steel and mining company producing flat and long steel products for automotive, construction and industrial customers.

HQ: LuxembourgListed: Netherlands

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for ArcelorMittal.

ArcelorMittal (MT.AMS) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The investigation ends on a contradiction rather than a verdict of fraud. Brussels genuinely handed ArcelorMittal a structurally better European business — the quota cuts tariff-free imports 47% and doubles the penalty duty [2][3] — and the margin evidence corroborates it. But the market paid for that gift twice, moving the shares from 0.37x book in 2024 to 1.01x today while trailing ran at minus $1.39bn. The base case is therefore earnings delivery without further : real cash arrives as rolls off after 2027, offset by the ETS cost step and cyclical European weakness.

  • Annualised 1H26 near $7.4bn, plus $1.6-1.8bn project potential, supports roughly $8-9bn by 2029 [11][17].
  • At 6-7x EV/ less $9.5bn , equity value sits broadly around today's $55.5bn capitalisation.
  • With 764m shares shrinking around 2% annually, per-share value compounds even on a flat .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.13.0131.4549.968.3486.78Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-09-1627.4
Observed price2021-09-2124.9
Observed price2021-10-1126.3
Observed price2021-10-3128.9
Observed price2021-11-0528.1
Observed price2021-11-2524.3
Observed price2021-11-3024.7
Observed price2021-12-2027.9
Observed price2021-12-2528.4
Observed price2022-01-1432.6
Observed price2022-01-1931.1
Observed price2022-01-2926.2
Observed price2022-02-2325.0
Observed price2022-02-2828.2
Observed price2022-03-1027.5
Observed price2022-03-2531.0
Observed price2022-04-1930.7
Observed price2022-04-2427.8
Observed price2022-04-2928.1
Observed price2022-05-0926.2
Observed price2022-05-2930.5
Observed price2022-06-1326.2
Observed price2022-06-1825.1
Observed price2022-07-0821.1
Observed price2022-07-1321.5
Observed price2022-07-2823.6
Observed price2022-08-1724.6
Observed price2022-08-2223.2
Observed price2022-09-1123.5
Observed price2022-09-2121.7
Observed price2022-10-0620.9
Observed price2022-10-1622.0
Observed price2022-10-3122.2
Observed price2022-11-1025.7
Observed price2022-11-2024.9
Observed price2022-11-3025.7
Observed price2022-12-1026.0
Observed price2022-12-2024.3
Observed price2023-01-0425.7
Observed price2023-01-2428.8
Observed price2023-01-2929.1
Observed price2023-02-0827.5
Observed price2023-03-0529.9
Observed price2023-03-1525.9
Observed price2023-03-2025.7
Observed price2023-03-3027.5
Observed price2023-04-1827.1
Observed price2023-05-0324.3
Observed price2023-05-0825.2
Observed price2023-05-2823.7
Observed price2023-06-1225.7
Observed price2023-06-2224.6
Observed price2023-07-0723.7
Observed price2023-07-1225.1
Observed price2023-07-2725.6
Observed price2023-08-1124.8
Observed price2023-08-2123.9
Observed price2023-08-3125.0
Observed price2023-09-1524.3
Observed price2023-09-2523.2
Observed price2023-10-1022.9
Observed price2023-10-2020.5
Observed price2023-11-0920.5
Observed price2023-11-1921.9
Observed price2023-11-2422.4
Observed price2023-12-1424.7
Observed price2023-12-1926.2
Observed price2024-01-0825.2
Observed price2024-01-1824.2
Observed price2024-02-0225.5
Observed price2024-02-1226.2
Observed price2024-02-2724.3
Observed price2024-03-0323.6
Observed price2024-03-2325.1
Observed price2024-04-1225.7
Observed price2024-04-1723.6
Observed price2024-04-2723.8
Observed price2024-05-0224.3
Observed price2024-05-1724.3
Observed price2024-06-0623.5
Observed price2024-06-1122.6
Observed price2024-07-0121.2
Observed price2024-07-1621.4
Observed price2024-07-2620.7
Observed price2024-07-3120.8
Observed price2024-08-0519.16
Observed price2024-08-3021.2
Observed price2024-09-0420.0
Observed price2024-09-1921.9
Observed price2024-09-2923.5
Observed price2024-10-2422.0
Observed price2024-10-2922.8
Observed price2024-11-0824.1
Observed price2024-11-1322.6
Observed price2024-12-0724.4
Observed price2024-12-2222.1
Observed price2025-01-0621.2
Observed price2025-01-1622.7
Observed price2025-01-2122.6
Observed price2025-02-0527.4
Observed price2025-02-2026.8
Observed price2025-03-0730.7
Observed price2025-03-1730.2
Observed price2025-04-0126.1
Observed price2025-04-0622.3
Observed price2025-04-2626.1
Observed price2025-05-0626.5
Observed price2025-05-1127.8
Observed price2025-05-2627.4
Observed price2025-05-3126.6
Observed price2025-06-2026.0
Observed price2025-07-1029.5
Observed price2025-07-2029.0
Observed price2025-08-0426.8
Observed price2025-08-1929.5
Observed price2025-08-2928.2
Observed price2025-09-0328.2
Observed price2025-09-2330.7
Observed price2025-09-2830.9
Observed price2025-10-0834.6
Observed price2025-11-0232.7
Observed price2025-11-1234.9
Observed price2025-11-1734.0
Observed price2025-11-2737.2
Observed price2025-12-2238.2
Observed price2026-01-0139.2
Observed price2026-01-0640.7
Observed price2026-01-2645.8
Observed price2026-01-3147.1
Observed price2026-02-2056.3
Observed price2026-02-2556.8
Observed price2026-03-1745.4
Observed price2026-03-2743.5
Observed price2026-04-1151.9
Observed price2026-05-0148.4
Observed price2026-05-0653.5
Observed price2026-05-1152.7
Observed price2026-05-3159.7
Observed price2026-06-1559.9
Observed price2026-06-2554.3
Observed price2026-06-3052.7
Observed price2026-07-1458.6
Observed price2026-07-2458.7
Observed price2026-08-0364.3
Observed price2026-08-1862.2
Observed price2026-09-0767.0
Observed price2026-09-2162.9
Observed price2026-09-2263.8
Observed price2026-09-2462.0
Observed price2026-09-2561.8
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1863.1
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1859.3
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1861.7
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1863.6
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1860.4
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1863.4
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1865.9
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1864.0
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1865.2
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1867.8
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1869.9
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1865.7
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1863.1
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1865.0
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1868.2
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1870.2
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1871.7
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1873.8
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1876.8
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1878.3
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1880.6

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when protection meets volume. If the June 2027 downstream assessment extends CBAM to steel-containing goods and melt-and-pour becomes the primary quota criterion by 2028 [4], European spreads widen just as ECB easing and defence-infrastructure spending restore construction tonnage. are already cut, so incremental volume converts at high contribution margin, rolls off, turns strongly positive, and accelerated buybacks compound a still-modest multiple into materially higher per-share value.

Bear case

The bear case activates when the protection premium and the carbon bill arrive in opposite directions. A renewed lifting TTF above €110/MWh, coinciding with European automotive and construction contraction and the steep 2029-2030 free-allocation step [15], would compress Europe toward breakeven. With $4.5-5.0bn annual and $9.5bn , buybacks stop, removing the per-share support, and a cyclical at 1.01x book re-rates back toward 0.5x far faster than earnings decline.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus treats Brussels as a permanent underwriter: the 50% out-of-quota duty is read as a structural regime change, not a cyclical policy, which is why shares doubled in twelve months and rallied 4.2% on a Q2 miss of $0.90 against $1.18 [1]. The anchoring bias is -per-tonne: $143 versus an $89 historical average [10], extrapolated as the new floor while is dismissed as seasonal.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly overestimates these shares. The evidence chain: annualising 1H 2026 gives roughly $7.4bn, implying near 8x EV/ against a historical integrated-steel mid-cycle range of 4-6x, while price-to-book has moved from 0.37 in 2024 to 1.01 today. That premium assumes the tariff regime is permanent and free. It is neither — ETS free allocation collapses fastest between 2029 and 2030 [15], and trailing is already negative $1.39bn. Earnings power improved genuinely; the multiple improved further.

Convergence catalyst

The Q3 and FY2026 results in late October and February, reported alongside 2027 guidance, will test whether the protected price actually converts to . Recognition begins the day buyback pace decelerates or guidance exceeds $5bn; watch the payout-versus- ratio first.

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