Amgen Inc. (AMGN.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+54.9%
Includes 1.68% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is a race between two clocks. One counts down the legacy book
- Prolia, XGEVA, Otezla and Enbrel bleeding revenue and price to biosimilarsbiosimilarsBiologic medicines shown to be highly similar to an approved reference product with no clinically meaningful differences.View full glossary entry and Medicare negotiation. The other counts up: six growth drivers compounding at 26%, at 29%, and a scheduled amortization runoff that lifts reported earnings without any operating improvement. Base case, the second clock wins narrowly, delivering mid-single-digit non-GAAP EPS growtheps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period.View full glossary entry rather than the stagnation consensus assumes, while MariTide contributes real but discounted value after a mixed-to-good 2027 readout. Investors are paid a 2.6% dividend to wait, with deleveragingdeleveragingThe process of reducing total debt and leverage to strengthen financial stability.View full glossary entry restoring repurchases from 2028.
- FY2026 non-GAAP midpoint near $22.90 compounding mid-single-digit to roughly $29 by 2031.
- A steady 17-18x forward multipleforward multipleForward multiple is a valuation ratio based on forecast earnings, sales, or cash flow rather than historical results.View full glossary entry on that base supports a share price near $530-555.
- Implied equity near $295B on 544M shares; 4.85% TTM FCF yieldfcf yieldFree cash flow divided by market value, showing cash generation relative to the asset price.View full glossary entry cross-checks the valuation path.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-18 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 207 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-27 | 207 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-04 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-09 | 212 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-30 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-05 | 207 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-26 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-31 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-17 | 231 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-08 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-16 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 221 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-06 | 232 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-19 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-09 | 251 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-18 | 255 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-01 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 240 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-27 | 255 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-09 | 248 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-18 | 244 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-04 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-22 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-12 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-21 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-08 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-17 | 249 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-30 | 270 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 287 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 285 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-04 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-25 | 263 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-30 | 261 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 274 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 257 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-15 | 240 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-20 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 226 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 230 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-08 | 250 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 251 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 232 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-26 | 218 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-08 | 221 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-21 | 230 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-29 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-21 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 233 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-16 | 263 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 259 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 255 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 261 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-07 | 270 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 285 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-29 | 264 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 272 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-19 | 265 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-24 | 282 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-28 | 288 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-10 | 307 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-01 | 317 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-14 | 289 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-18 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 275 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 283 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-06 | 269 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-15 | 265 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 284 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-15 | 317 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-28 | 301 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-14 | 301 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 317 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-02 | 311 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-15 | 332 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-23 | 335 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-10 | 323 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-31 | 331 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-05 | 325 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-22 | 335 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-26 | 319 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 324 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-31 | 316 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-04 | 318 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 279 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 281 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-22 | 263 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-04 | 259 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 275 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-08 | 297 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-16 | 294 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 325 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-19 | 318 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-05 | 295 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-22 | 279 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-01 | 288 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-27 | 281 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 295 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-22 | 274 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 281 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 300 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-22 | 309 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-09 | 288 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 294 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-08 | 280 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-25 | 273 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-04 | 297 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-21 | 299 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-26 | 292 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-03 | 301 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-16 | 340 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 345 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-12 | 321 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-25 | 332 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 323 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-20 | 343 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-07 | 372 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 380 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 372 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-13 | 371 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-04 | 346 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-13 | 349 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-30 | 332 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 329 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-22 | 339 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 332 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 345 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 354 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 370 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-21 | 366 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-12 | 417 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 444 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-07 | 401 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-15 | 376 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 410 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 415 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 386 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 393 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 382 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 404 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 409 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 421 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 425 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 438 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 442 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 455 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 455 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 469 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 478 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 488 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 493 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 503 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 508 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 523 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 528 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 539 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 550 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the obesity option stops being free. Clean MARITIME-1/-2 topline in H1 2027 - mid-teens weight loss with tolerable discontinuation rates and working Q8W/Q12W maintenance dosing - converts Amgen from yield asset to cardiometabolic franchise. That re-rating compounds: a higher multiple lowers the cost of equity, deleveragingThe process of reducing total debt and leverage to strengthen financial stability. below 2x frees repurchases, and the amortization runoff flatters reported EPS simultaneously. Add an IMDELLTRA label expansion and the shares clear $700 well before 2031.
Bear case
The bear case activates when both clocks run against Amgen at once. A tolerability-driven MariTide disappointment in 2027 vaporizes the growth narrative just as the second and third CMS negotiation cohorts strike Otezla and successor products, while denosumab erosion persists longer than modeled. The multiple compresses toward low-teens ex-growth pharma, refinancing at 5% coupons erodes coverage, and repurchases stay suspended to protect leverage. Shares would revisit the low $300s and stay there.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus trades Amgen as a bond proxybond proxyAn equity or other asset valued partly for stable income and therefore often sensitive to changes in bond yields.View full glossary entry with a lottery ticket stapled on: a 2.6% dividend, defensible cash flow, an IRA-impaired legacy book, and MariTide treated as free optionality after the 2024 tolerability scare. Sell-side anchors on roughly 1.9% forward eps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period. [24], treating erosion and price-setting as settled fact while quietly discounting the 26% growth-driver compounding.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, implying underpricing. Two pieces of evidence are being ignored. First, the 24x trailing GAAP multiple versus ~17x forward non-GAAP is not a quality gap; it is a scheduled amortization runoff from $3.6B in 2027 to $2.1B in 2031 [4], mechanical and non-cash. Second, nearly 70% of product sales now grow at 26% [5], meaning the erosion base is shrinking as a share of revenue. The market prices the decline and rents the growth for free.
Convergence catalyst
MARITIME-1 and MARITIME-2 topline in H1 2027, following the early-2027 primary completion dates [11], is the single event that forces re-underwriting. The first observable sign of repricing is options-implied volatility collapsing after the print with the shares holding above $400, indicating the obesity option was repriced rather than expired.
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