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AIR.PAR
Airbus
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

European multinational aerospace corporation designing, manufacturing, and selling civil and military aircraft, helicopters, and space systems.

HQ: NetherlandsListed: France

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Airbus.

Airbus SE (AIR.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is conversion, not demand. Airbus holds a 9,222-aircraft and an effective duopoly, yet its economics are gated by engines it does not build: Pratt & Whitney's shortfall pushed rate 75 to end-2027 [7][12]. H1 2026 crystallised the pattern — EBIT Adjusted of €2.7bn on 351 deliveries, but consolidated of −€1.04bn as inventory and parked airframes absorbed capital [11]. Base case: 2026 deliveries land near but below 870, a modest derating follows, then 2027-2029 volume leverage carries EBIT Adjusted toward the €12-13bn target while the multiple compresses as earnings catch up.

  • FY2025 EBIT Adjusted of €7.13bn to a €12-13bn 2029 target implies roughly 15% annual operating-profit growth.
  • At €193 across 789m shares, the €152bn market value equals about 12x the 2029 EBIT midpoint.
  • Cash conversion near 1.0 implies roughly €12bn free cash by 2029; the buyback retires about 3% of shares.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.68129.11190.22251.33312.44Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
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Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates the moment engine supply stops being the binding constraint. If Pratt & Whitney and CFM both step up through 2027, the glider inventory clears, several billion euros of parked converts to cash in a single year, and rate 75 arrives early — simultaneously lifting volumes, margins and free-cash-flow quality. Add Bromo clearance and Defence margins reaching mid-single digits, and the 2029 target becomes a floor rather than a stretch, justifying a mid-twenties multiple on materially higher earnings.

Bear case

The bear case begins with a December that fails to deliver. A 2026 tally near 820 and well under €4.5bn would expose the working-capital build as structural rather than seasonal, forcing a cut to the 2029 ambition. Compounding conditions matter: $100-plus crude straining airline balance sheets, deferral requests testing quality, and a 5% applied to postponed cash. Earnings would hold up better than the multiple, which could revisit the low twenties.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus treats Airbus as a sold-out duopoly where the only question is timing: engines arrive, rate 75 lands, and the €12-13bn 2029 EBIT Adjusted target is treated as a floor rather than an ambition. Sell-side anchors on the 9,222-unit and the €5bn buyback, discounting the delivery shortfall as seasonal. The anchoring bias is -as-certainty — visibility mistaken for cash.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd slightly overestimates these shares near term and underestimates them beyond 2028. Evidence: the required run-rate of nearly 99 aircraft monthly through December against 57 in August [2] is not priced, yet the same investors ignore that €193 already capitalises roughly 12x the 2029 EBIT midpoint — leaving little for the post-2029 rate-75 annuity, the Bromo deconsolidation and D&S normalisation. The blind spot is conflating a visible with converted cash. Net: fairly valued today, with the asymmetry improving after a Q4 disappointment.

Convergence catalyst

The January 2027 delivery bulletin and February full-year results are the hinge. A tally below 850 with short of €4.5bn triggers the derating; the first observable sign of recognition is Q1 2027 commentary confirming contracted — not merely expected — Pratt & Whitney volumes for 2028.

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