Airbus SE (AIR.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+60.7%
Includes 1.25% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is conversion, not demand. Airbus holds a 9,222-aircraft backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry and an effective duopoly, yet its economics are gated by engines it does not build: Pratt & Whitney's shortfall pushed rate 75 to end-2027 [7][12]. H1 2026 crystallised the pattern — EBIT Adjusted of €2.7bn on 351 deliveries, but consolidated free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry of −€1.04bn as inventory and parked airframes absorbed capital [11]. Base case: 2026 deliveries land near but below 870, a modest derating follows, then 2027-2029 volume leverage carries EBIT Adjusted toward the €12-13bn target while the multiple compresses as earnings catch up.
- FY2025 EBIT Adjusted of €7.13bn to a €12-13bn 2029 target implies roughly 15% annual operating-profit growth.
- At €193 across 789m shares, the €152bn market value equals about 12x the 2029 EBIT midpoint.
- Cash conversion near 1.0 implies roughly €12bn free cash by 2029; the buyback retires about 3% of shares.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-19 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-23 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-17 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-25 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-10 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-26 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-04 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-20 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-05 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-06 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-14 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-06 | 96.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-18 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-30 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-27 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-13 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-29 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-26 | 92.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-04 | 90.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-01 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-02 | 95.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-30 | 88.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 91.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-24 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-28 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-17 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-21 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-19 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-04 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-16 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-24 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-09 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-17 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-25 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-22 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-20 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-01 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-25 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-23 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-04 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-09 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-29 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-23 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-22 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-08 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-20 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-07 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-27 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 171 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-28 | 156 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-02 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-10 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-26 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-23 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-27 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-13 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-25 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-26 | 141 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-30 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-07 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-17 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-18 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-16 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-22 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-18 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-03 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-11 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-25 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-04 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-20 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-28 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-01 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-17 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-29 | 179 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-14 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 204 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-16 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-01 | 213 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 211 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-25 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-15 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-23 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-16 | 217 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-17 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-01 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-21 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-18 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-26 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-20 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-05 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-03 | 206 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-19 | 193 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-31 | 202 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-20 | 205 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-01 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 196 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 192 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 193 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 188 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 197 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 201 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 209 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 213 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 224 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 228 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 233 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 240 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 247 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 252 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 259 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 254 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 262 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 267 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 270 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 275 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 281 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 286 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 292 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates the moment engine supply stops being the binding constraint. If Pratt & Whitney and CFM both step up through 2027, the glider inventory clears, several billion euros of parked working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry converts to cash in a single year, and rate 75 arrives early — simultaneously lifting volumes, margins and free-cash-flow quality. Add Bromo clearance and Defence margins reaching mid-single digits, and the 2029 target becomes a floor rather than a stretch, justifying a mid-twenties multiple on materially higher earnings.
Bear case
The bear case begins with a December that fails to deliver. A 2026 tally near 820 and free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. well under €4.5bn would expose the working-capital build as structural rather than seasonal, forcing a cut to the 2029 ambition. Compounding conditions matter: $100-plus crude straining airline balance sheets, deferral requests testing backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. quality, and a 5% discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry applied to postponed cash. Earnings would hold up better than the multiple, which could revisit the low twenties.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus treats Airbus as a sold-out duopoly compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry where the only question is timing: engines arrive, rate 75 lands, and the €12-13bn 2029 EBIT Adjusted target is treated as a floor rather than an ambition. Sell-side anchors on the 9,222-unit backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. and the €5bn buyback, discounting the delivery shortfall as seasonal. The anchoring bias is -as-certainty — visibility mistaken for cash.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd slightly overestimates these shares near term and underestimates them beyond 2028. Evidence: the required run-rate of nearly 99 aircraft monthly through December against 57 in August [2] is not priced, yet the same investors ignore that €193 already capitalises roughly 12x the 2029 EBIT midpoint — leaving little for the post-2029 rate-75 annuity, the Bromo deconsolidation and D&S normalisation. The blind spot is conflating a visible backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. with converted cash. Net: fairly valued today, with the asymmetry improving after a Q4 disappointment.
Convergence catalyst
The January 2027 delivery bulletin and February full-year results are the hinge. A tally below 850 with free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. short of €4.5bn triggers the derating; the first observable sign of recognition is Q1 2027 commentary confirming contracted — not merely expected — Pratt & Whitney volumes for 2028.
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