Asset snowflake

A visual summary of opportunity, risk, quality, and advisor alignment

The Asset Snowflake Analysis turns several iPulse AI diagnostics into a compact shape: forecasted return, advisor agreement, risk resilience, equity financial health, and alpha catalysts. It is a reading aid, not a replacement for the full forecast report.

Updated July 16, 2026

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Overview

The snowflake is a display layer, not a second ranking model

iPulse AI already stores a canonical Consensus Score for ranking: a -1000 to +1000 score derived from forecast return, advisor agreement, forecast dispersion, volatility, dividends, guardrails, and event-risk pressure. The Asset Snowflake Analysis is different. It is a compact visual that shows the shape of an asset across five interpretable dimensions.

A balanced snowflake means the thesis is supported across several dimensions. A lopsided snowflake can be even more informative: strong forecasted return with weak risk resilience is a very different setup from moderate return with high agreement, solid fundamentals, and clear catalysts.

The snowflake should be read as a research map. It does not guarantee future returns, and it does not remove the need to inspect the forecast path, advisor reports, event drivers, frictions, and full disclaimer.

Worked example

From raw diagnostics to a rendered snowflake

The example below uses an illustrative equity asset. Assume the latest 5-year consensus forecast has a 14 percent annualized total return, 8 percent annual return MAD, Risk Score of 22, Financial Health of 61, and a strong catalyst package from drivers and tail opportunities.

1. Forecasted Return: 14 percent annualized return maps to ((14 + 12) / 36) x 100 = 72.
2. Advisors Agreement: with no direct agreement field, MAD fallback gives 100 - 4 x 8 = 68.
3. Risk Resilience: Risk Score is 22, so resilience is 100 - 22 = 78.
4. Financial Health: the equity fundamental composite is 61.
5. Alpha Catalysts: consensus drivers, opportunities, and the alpha-gap narrative produce 74.
6. Blend: average(72, 68, 78, 61, 74) = 71. Separately, the asset can still show an iPulse AI Consensus Score of +342.

Notice the separation: a good snowflake shape does not mean the asset is automatically a STRONG BUY. The final rating still comes from the canonical iPulse AI Consensus Score and guardrails.

Asset Snowflake Analysis

Snowflake Blend

71/100

iPulse AI Consensus Score

+342

Risk Score

Risk Score measures clustered event pressure, not ordinary volatility

Risk Score is intentionally narrow. It uses the SEO/GEO summary layer after repeated advisor concerns have been clustered into consensus friction factors and consensus tail risks. It does not include historical volatility or advisor disagreement, because those are already handled separately in the iPulse AI Score and snowflake axes.

Current stored formula version: event_risk_pressure_v2.

Formula

friction_pressure =
  sum(abs(friction_impact_pct) * rank_weight)
  where rank weights are 1.00, 0.75, 0.55, 0.40

tail_risk_pressure =
  sum(abs(downside_impact_pct) * probability_pct / 100 * rank_weight)
  where rank weights are 1.00, 0.65

raw_event_pressure =
  0.60 * friction_pressure + 0.40 * tail_risk_pressure

risk_pressure_score =
  percentile(raw_event_pressure), 0 to 100, higher means riskier

risk_resilience_score =
  100 - risk_pressure_score

The percentile step makes the score comparative inside the current leaderboard run. If a subject has one of the highest raw clustered risk pressures, its Risk Score approaches 100. If clustered risk pressure is low, its Risk Score approaches 0. Risk Resilience is the display-friendly inverse: higher is better.

Effect on iPulse AI Score

Event risk is a modest score adjustment. Positive scores can be dampened by up to 8 percent using (Risk / 100)^1.5. Negative scores can be amplified by up to 5 percent using the same exponent. This keeps clustered event risk visible without letting narrative risk overwrite the whole forecast.

Financial Health

Financial Health is an equity-only quality composite

Financial Health is calculated only for equities with usable company fundamentals. It compares each equity against the equity assets available in the current leaderboard run, using percentile scores so metrics with different units can be combined.

Current stored formula version: financial_health_equity_v1.

20 percent of final score

Liquidity

0.60 x current ratio percentile plus 0.40 x cash-to-current-liabilities percentile.

25 percent of final score

Leverage safety

0.50 x inverted net-debt-to-EBITDA percentile plus 0.50 x inverted liabilities-to-equity percentile. Lower leverage stress scores better.

25 percent of final score

Profitability

0.50 x operating margin percentile plus 0.50 x return on equity percentile.

20 percent of final score

Cash generation

0.60 x free-cash-flow margin percentile plus 0.40 x operating-cash-flow-to-net-income percentile.

10 percent of final score

Operating trend

0.60 x 3-year revenue CAGR percentile plus 0.40 x 3-year operating margin change percentile.

Composite rule

financial_health_score =
  0.20 * liquidity
  + 0.25 * leverage_safety
  + 0.25 * profitability
  + 0.20 * cash_generation
  + 0.10 * operating_trend

At least 3 component groups must be available.

Status is stored with the score. AVAILABLE means all component groups were available. PARTIAL means enough data existed to compute the score, but at least one component group was missing. INSUFFICIENT_DATAmeans the equity did not have enough usable fundamentals. NOT_APPLICABLEis used for non-equity assets.

Five axes

Each axis is scaled so higher generally means better

The snowflake uses a 0 to 100 scale on every axis. That makes the shape easy to read: larger area generally means stronger combined profile, while weak axes show where the thesis needs extra care.

Forecasted Return

Uses the 5-year annualized total-return forecast when available. The display score maps -12 percent annual return to 0, +24 percent annual return to 100, and clamps values outside that range.

Advisors Agreement

Uses direction agreement when available. If not available, it falls back to forecast dispersion: 100 - 4 x absolute annual return MAD.

Risk Resilience

Uses the stored risk_resilience_score, or 100 - risk_pressure_score. Higher means the clustered risk-pressure layer is less severe.

Financial Health

For equities, uses the Financial Health composite. For non-equity assets without company fundamentals, the axis can fall back to a bounded iPulse AI Score proxy.

Alpha Catalysts

Uses a direct catalyst score when available. Otherwise it estimates catalyst strength from consensus drivers, tail opportunities, alpha-gap text, and convergence-catalyst text.

Snowflake Blend

Snowflake Blend is the simple average of populated axis values. It is shown out of 100. The iPulse AI Consensus Score remains separate because it is a directional ranking score on a different -1000 to +1000 scale.

Reading limits

The snowflake makes the thesis easier to scan, not easier to blindly trust

A strong shape can hide important timing questions. A weak shape can still contain a valuable contrarian setup if the market is mispricing one narrow catalyst. The snowflake should therefore be used with the full thesis, forecast timeline, drivers, frictions, tail risks, and advisor disagreement.

The methodology can evolve as the data platform improves. When formulas change, iPulse AI stores formula versions and component audit payloads with leaderboard outputs so score history remains explainable.

Read Consensus Score formula Read disclaimer